Trains, Ferries, Geopolitics and Butterflies

This is a post about Geopolitics, and the unintended and unforeseen consequences of actions, by decision-makers, taking a narrow view-point, as a basis for eliminating rail enabled ferries.

This a is good case study of the “Butterfly Effect”

Definition Butterfly Effect: In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. The term is closely associated with the work of mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Loren

The issue here is the potential decision to move away from Rail tonnage capable ferries between the North and South Island of New Zealand, and the unintended consequences of that, together with a major impact being the potential closing of the national rail network in New Zealand. See my earlier LinkedIn posts on this for greater context and why this is. A couple of them are here:

https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/michael-van-drogenbroek-45026527_rail-kiwirail-infrastructure-activity-7140721616463757314-Njc3?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/michael-van-drogenbroek-45026527_richard-prebble-regulation-shake-up-needed-activity-7143002387551588353-V_dn?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Accusations by some commentators that many of the rail proponents in New Zealand have an almost religious fervor, when it comes to rail, have been flying quick and fast in recent days and weeks. My response is that these commentators tend to have at best; a narrow, ideologically driven domestic focus. They do not have the background knowledge, and a genuine international perspective, to support the statements they are making.

In contrast, many of the rail advocates I have had conversations with, these last few weeks; have high levels of expertise, and experience in leadership, finance, technology, and customer interfaces within the global, as well as domestic rail industry.

A key objective of this post is to bring visibility to the likely consequences of the knee-jerk actions by current central Government decision makers. To date some of the risks seemingly overlooked, are within the context of Geo-Political consequences. So what are some of these risks?

• There is no national rail freight network without interisland rail access. If rail accessible ferries go, then the Christchurch to Picton rail link will quickly follow. This in turn will make the rest of the rail freight network unviable.
• Cancelling the contract for these two large new ferries could have a large impact on the future of the New Zealand Korea trade relationship. Walking away from the contract is likely to lead to contract break claims. This will further increase New Zealand’s reliance on one single major trading partner (China), leading to increased economic and security risks. Nothing against China – they are very important to New Zealand. But seriously; isn’t diversity of trading partners key, in an increasingly unstable global environment?
• Within the historical context of the New Zealand Korea relationship, NZ is regarded as playing a mission-critical role during the Battle of Kapyong, a key battle in the Korean War. Despite a large-scale assault by the Chinese People’s Volunteer Army (PVA), and the withdrawal of a substantial portion of the UN Forces, the 16th NZ Field Regiment, was able to provide artillery fire support to a small group of Australian and Canadian troops holding key positions just north of Seoul, through a 2-day encirclement and repeated assaults. The ultimate victory helped to secure Seoul from invasion by the PVA, and changed the course of the Korean War. The achievement of the 16th NZ Field Regiment, was recognised through the award of the South Korean Presidential Unit Citation in November 1951. This shared history continues to provide a foundation, of the New Zealand Korea relationship. With similar democratic systems and ideals, and an innovative powerhouse economy, Korea is precisely the type of country, New Zealand should be fostering long-term relationships with.
• Keeping a rail enabled connection between the islands, concurrently with the national rail network, should be considered critical in the increasingly unstable geo-political climate World-wide. This is especially good insurance in the event of global supply chain disruption where New Zealand could find itself somewhat isolated. Indeed, this is why many countries are strengthening and building new rail connections across the World rather than weakening them, or loosing them altogether – history has proven rails worth in that context time and time again.

• Dismantling the national rail freight network, along with the failure to meet our carbon emissions reductions targets against 2030 Paris commitments, and the recently ratified EU Free Trade Agreement will not go unnoticed by our trading partners. New Zealand can expect to have pay billions of dollars and/or be removed from Free Trade agreements from progressive countries.
• What is the official position of Greater Wellington, Centreport, Marlborough Port and council, on the future of the national rail freight network? For instance, does Wellington understand that if tonnage from the North Island Main Trunk (NIMT) exits rail then a natural flow on consequence of that could be the closing of the whole NIMT south of Hamilton. So that would mean Wellington would have the burden of ALL rail infrastructure cost (capital, renewals and maintenance) for the Lower North Island rail system. Can they afford that? What does that do to the Lower North Island Tri-mode hybrid passenger trains viability to run between Wellington and Palmerston North and Wellington and the Wairarapa that are currently up for procurement?
• The current government action to walk away from the current Interisland contract, and their preparedness to pay many millions of dollars of contract break claims, and associated reputational damage, sets a precedent regarding the increasingly partisan nature of transport policy in New Zealand.
• Expect National / ACT / NZ First pet roading projects, to be treated the same way, by any future Labour / Green / Te Pāti Māori future coalition. Roading contractors and prospective roading PPP partners, be warned.

It is to be hoped that the expert advisory group being established to provide the coalition Government with independent advice and assurance on KiwiRail’s inter-island ferry service will take these broader issues into account in forming the conclusions they reach.

Let’s complete this post with a quote from a Holy Book – the Christian Bible:

Luke 23:34 Jesus said, “Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing.” And they divided up his clothes by casting lots.

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It is not often I would include a religious quote within a LinkedIn post, as I know it can polarize some people. However, it is the Christmas religious season, when the Christian religion (one of three great Abrahamic religions – Judaism and Islam being the other two) celebrate the birth of their messiah. I trust that placing Luke 23:34, within a secular context, is appropriate to this post.

I am likely to provoke further responses from some commentators, regarding their claims of religious fervor, by rail advocates!

I suggest to them in return; some self-reflection, and acknowledgement of what they do not know.

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#newzealand #kiwirail #internationaltrade #kiwirail #geopolitics #iReX #transport #butterflyeffect #nationalsecurity