Trailblazing #14 (05/01/2024)!

What I recently found interesting:

The critical test for European Union

Highly recommend this article if you’d like a comprehensive picture of the challenges & opportunities European Union as an institution is currently facing.

• Throughout centuries Europe had been torn by all kinds of wars, whether they had economic, religious, ethnic or other motives. Comparatively, since the end of World War II the Western Europe has managed to avoid a major internal conflict and it is rather a common view that EU (& its precursors since 1950s) as an institution has played a significant role in it (cemented by the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 ). Its success can be explained thru repeated stag hunt games , which is an elevated concept of prisoners’ dilemma. Albeit very similar in theory, the stag games focus on the nuance of trust (i.e. peace is a dominant strategy for everyone, if each player reliably knew that their counterparty was going to forever maintain its commitment to mutual friendship) rather than the threat of aggressive “military” retribution (best summarized by “si vis pacem, para bellum” driven by lack of trust in your counterparty’s real intentions). To summarize, while the latter is practiced by many of contemporary leaders, EU has bet on the belief that becoming more interdependent on & supportive of one another (economically, socially etc.) over time would deepen mutual trust & disincentivize an internal war.

Now, while the EU’s ‘stag hunt’ approach has worked wonders to maintain peace among its members, it has left EU vulnerable to external attacks due to decreasing (as % of total expenditure) military spending over the last 30 years . So if there is any silver lining in this War, it is that Putin’s repeated aggression (with the initial warning dating back all the way to Georgia’s invasion in 2008 ) has finally triggered the EU citizens & its leaders to take real actions to defend EU’s values & protect its future.

Truthfully, EU has been tested in a plethora of ways over the last decade , emerging as a stronger union out of each crisis. But war in Ukraine is not yet another crisis to deal with; it is rather a “make-it-or-break-it” for the concept of European Union.

• In other words, can EU (with its ‘stag hunt games’ approach) make the next critical step in spreading peace across the world, one neighboring country at a time? Or has it already reached its potential?

What is essential to understand is that Putin will NOT stop & CANNOT be trusted. Europe & NATO have grown aware of that over years and are now preparing for the worst outcome of all (i.e. embodying the “if you want peace, prepare for war” strategy). Frankly, nobody really knows the limits of Putin’s resources & how long the Russian citizens will tolerate him, so the only way to beat him in a defensive battle is to stay patient & wear him out, which is exactly what Ukraine is doing. That said, Ukraine cannot win this War without our unwavering support. And while this is not what people want to hear, there is really no other way.

And this is where it gets tricky. The recently approved fresh aid for Ukraine from the US is very helpful but there is a high chance that it is still not enough to defeat Putin. It has been 2+ years since the war broke out and, however depressing it sounds, it is reasonable to assume it will continue for another 2+ years. Now, if the War in Middle East develops further & if the US re-elects Donald Trump, there is a very strong possibility that the US will cut its support for Ukraine, leaving EU with some big shoes to fill.

• Therefore, bringing it back to the leading article, it is of utmost importance for EU to accelerate its efforts to develop an ability to defend itself. The time to act is now. Tomorrow may be too late…

Miscellaneous

Personal

I finished my first painting & completed the motorcycle course in April!

• A very long time ago I had told myself that whenever I get my own apartment I would furnish it with an art set. And so I did ?? It serves two purposes for me: a) it fits wonderfully as an ornament & b) with a few brush swings (whenever needed), it creatively & efficiently clears my mind and inspires new ideas related to work or personal life.
• Regarding the motorcycle, the desire to learn has always been in me & I finally made it happen. We will see where this new hobby takes me, but it does provide a unique sense of freedom, similar to that experienced thru activities like running / walking against the Ocean breeze is, driving a sports car, or reaching top of the mountain ??

Song Recommendation

“Californication” by Red Hot Chili Peppers -> it is a classic that I remember listening to as a 10-year old kid during harsh winters in Warsaw, Poland.

• And while I realize that a 10-year old kid’s interpretation of this song may have been quite naive, it might have inadvertently set the precedence for my life to trust my instincts & pursue my passions; and even when I stumble in my endeavors, a mysterious force seems to always remind me of & pull me back to this exciting mishmash of Hollywood, Malibu sun & the Pacific Ocean…