Trailblazing #13 (04/01/2024)!

What I recently found interesting:

Will AI be a step-function boost for the world’s GDP?

Professor Galloway makes a quite unique & provocative (but probably not for much longer) observation:

• Paraphrasing, there must be more to the better-than-expected “tech recovery” story from a post-Covid slump than just the implementation of the “years of efficiency” strategy (i.e. layoffs, perk cuts & the mindset shift). So essentially, Prof. Galloway is openly asking, what if AI is already making companies more productive than the society is led to believe, indirectly insinuating an enormous potential for AI?

I complement this conclusion with another analysis I recently read, in which the author argues that the AI-disruption-prone industries tend to have relatively small TAMs. Said differently, the cost savings (as well as value creation opportunities) driven by AI capabilities are rather limited in size, making it less likely to drive substantial returns for society as a whole (i.e. when one thinks of GDP as the main metric to measure the technological progress by).

Undoubtedly, we need more years of data to evaluate the statements above, but the beauty of following & participating in such discussions is that the side we pick now influences many of the decisions we are currently making in the anticipation of those choices positioning us for a fruitful future (however we individually define it). Personally, my instincts push me to believe that AI will be an absolute GDP game-changer in a long-run.

Relatedly, the above AI debate reminded me of an HBS case: “Kenya and the Silicon Savannah” which made me choose a “growth path” for Kenya: a) increase its investments in tech infrastructure at the cost of slowing down the build-out of traditional infrastructure (e.g. roads), or b) follow the standard development path for a country (e.g. focus on manufacturing & construction industries first, before moving higher up in the value chain).

• Three years ago (in the comfort of a classroom), based on my interpretation of the Cobb-Douglas GDP production function, I heavily leaned toward choice a), because meaningful improvements in societal productivity (resulting in the step-function change in GDP) can only be achieved via technological advances. Even though this logic is certainly simplified (and perhaps, a tad naive), my answer would still be the same today, and if Professor Galloway’s observation is right, AI might just be the main engine behind the world’s GDP growth for years to come (here is an example from Goldman Sachs on what the future may hold in the short-run). We just have to be patient ?? because I am not talking about the next 3-5 years; I believe that the real impact will only have been felt in 15-30 years.

Lastly, while I think that AI can drive industrial-revolution-like gains for the world, my worry is that, if left solely at the disposal of market forces, it will inevitably widen the inequality gap in the world. Generally, I am a big believer in an invisible hand of the market, but this is one of those cases where governments (and also us, the constituents) have a critical role to play to ensure that the AI-driven GDP gains benefit all people (at least to some extent), and not just a few.

Bonus reflection → the Polish Tech Ecosystem Map

In the past 10 years I have heard & learned a lot of about ecosystem maps & network effects, be it within industries, regions, or relationships with other people. Formerly skeptical about the value of bird-eye thinking (except for dreaming big of course ??) vs. the in-the-weeds iteration on the operational work, I have evolved over the past few years (in big part, thanks to HBS). I have realized that understanding how the world is connected, spotting patterns & having a view on how the past affects the present and how the present will change over time is critical if one wants to live more consciously (both professionally & personally).

Now, what is really interesting to me about the quoted map are the places in which the newly-minted founders are tied back to their former early-stage employers. The most world-renowned example of such a phenomenon is the “PayPal Mafia” which, as a concept, expands beyond founding companies. By utilizing the network effects, it encompasses angel investing, charity work & knowledge sharing, consequently expanding the ecosystem and creating new, incremental value for all people. Circling back to Poland, our tech market is still relatively small & immature, but I believe that the days of a similarly globally cherished statement with a Polish connotation (e.g. “ The DocPlanner Mafia”) are closer than we may think.

Miscellaneous

Personal

For the first time since my tennis days I have actually worked out regularly (with a disciplined & intentional approach) for a full month (to be continued ??):

• In short, I found a great fit for a gym (Body Fit Training); the BFT concept (and there are other similar ones that I have not tried yet, like F45, or FitStop etc.) resembles a college team workout → every day there is a different focus (e.g. cardio, legs, upper body, strength, power, speed etc.), and all workouts are designed around stations / intervals. Coaches give a workout overview in the first 5 mins, followed by a group warm-up, and off one goes, diving deep into this beautiful world of “it is just me, music, weights, rowing machines and so on for the next 50 mins, all broken down by a regular timer sound …”

Separately, I went to the Indian Wells tennis tournament for the first time, and I got to see two of the world’s best players (Iga Swiatek & Carlos Alcaraz) in their quarterfinal matchups (in addition to a few bees ??) → and while cheering for Iga is a proud moment for any Pole, watching Alcaraz live reminded me of one of the most famous articles about Roger Federer. Truth be told, Carlos still has ways to go (at least another 18 grand slams ??) to earn the “comparison conversations,” but I do wonder if his playing style already deserves similar flattery?

Song Recommendation

“Night changes” by One Direction -> to me this song exhibited a person’s sense of calm & confidence that following their intuition was the right path to walk.

And personally, my answer [no] to the question below made me realize that I finally rejected the idea of striving for “perfect” permanency & really began treating ‘change’ (along the ever-evolving journey) as the fundamental (and stable) characteristic of life. I am not sure what the meaning of that is yet, but definitely something to keep reflecting on:

• “We’re only gettin’ older, baby

And I’ve been thinkin’ about it lately

Does it ever drive you crazy

Just how fast the night changes?”