Trade War With China: Associated Risks.

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Source: Visual Capitalist, August 14, 2024.

?????????????? ???? ????????????????: The prospect of a trade war with China, especially one instigated by the United States and supported by Western economies, presents a complex web of economic, social, and geopolitical ramifications.?

A trade war, particularly one involving significant tariffs on Chinese imports, is likely to have profound consequences on the global economic landscape.

???????????????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????????????????? ??????????????????: Imposing major tariffs on Chinese goods would undoubtedly raise the cost of products for domestic consumers in the United States and other Western nations.?

China is a critical link in the global supply chain, and its manufacturing capabilities are unmatched in terms of scale and efficiency.?

By imposing tariffs, the cost of imported goods would increase, leading to inflationary pressures within domestic markets.?

For instance, consumer electronics, apparel, and machinery; industries heavily reliant on Chinese imports would see sharp price hikes, squeezing household budgets and reducing overall consumption.

Moreover, as businesses grapple with these increased costs, they would likely seek ways to maintain profitability.?

One such approach is to reduce their reliance on human labour by accelerating the adoption of automation, artificial intelligence, and other technologies.?

This shift could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, retail, and logistics.?

While some new jobs might be created in tech and automation sectors, these are unlikely to fully offset the employment decline, particularly for workers in lower-skilled positions.

???????????? ?????? ?????????????????? ????????????: The resulting job losses could exacerbate social unrest, as large segments of the population find themselves without work in an economy increasingly dominated by technology.?

A society where a significant portion of people are unable to find employment is a breeding ground for political instability.?

Historically, high unemployment rates have been linked to increased crime, social discontent, and the rise of populist movements.?

As people struggle to make ends meet, there could be growing disillusionment with governments perceived as failing to protect their citizens from the negative consequences of globalization and technological change.

This social unrest could manifest in various ways, including protests, strikes, and a rise in extremist political ideologies that promise to reverse these trends.?

The political landscape could become more polarized, with governments facing pressure to implement protectionist policies, further exacerbating global trade tensions.

???????????????????????? ?????????????????????????? ?????? ?????? ??????????-???????????? ????????????????: The economic decoupling from China could also have significant geopolitical consequences. As Western economies distance themselves from China, the latter might seek to strengthen its alliances elsewhere, most notably with Russia.?

The combination of China's economic power and Russia's military prowess could create a formidable axis that challenges the existing global order dominated by Western powers.?

This emerging alliance could lead to a new cold war-like scenario, with the world divided into competing spheres of influence.

Moreover, this shift could disrupt the balance of power among the world's superpowers, leading to a more unstable and unpredictable international environment.?

As tensions rise, the risk of military conflicts could increase, particularly in regions where China and Russia seek to expand their influence.?

The South China Sea, Eastern Europe, and the Arctic are all potential flashpoints where these tensions could escalate into armed conflict.

?????????????????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????????????????: The spectre of war, while a worst-case scenario, cannot be entirely dismissed.?

?History has shown that economic conflicts can sometimes spiral into military ones.?

????????? ???????????????? ?????????? (?????? ????????????????):

? The First Opium War (1839-1842)

Julia Lovell (Author of The Opium War: Drugs, Dreams, and the Making of China)

? World War I (1914-1918) Christopher Clark (Author of The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914)

? The Pacific War (1937-1945) John Toland (Author of The Rising Sun: The Decline and Fall of the Japanese Empire, 1936-1945)

? The Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652-1674) Roger Hainsworth and Christine Churches (Authors of The Anglo-Dutch Naval Wars 1652-1674)

If global trade relationships become so strained that diplomacy fails, there is a risk that some nations might resort to military action to achieve their objectives.?

This could be particularly true in areas where territorial disputes or resource competition are already present.

???? ????????????????????, a trade war with China, supported by Western economies, could trigger a cascade of economic, social, and geopolitical consequences.?

The immediate impact would likely be felt through higher consumer prices and job losses, leading to social and political unrest.?

Over the longer term, the decoupling of Western economies from China could encourage a stronger alliance between China and Russia, disrupting the balance of power among the world's superpowers and increasing the risk of military conflict.?

The potential for war and invasion, while not inevitable, is a sobering possibility that underscores the far-reaching implications of such a trade war.

Sources: Various. 3 Sept. 2024