Trade Update: Food & Agriculture | November 12, 2024

By Kristy Goodfellow, Vice President of Trade and Industry Affairs and Ameya Khanapurkar, Trade Intern

HIGHLIGHTS

Trump and Trade: As President-elect Donald Trump works to build his next administration, news outlets are reporting on issues that will have a significant impact on food and agriculture trade, including tariffs, the trading relationship with China, trade negotiations, and nominations for top trade and agriculture positions.

China: Many U.S. food and agriculture organizations participated in last week’s Chinese International Import Expo (CIIE). In an economic forum held in conjunction with the CIIE, WTO DDG Johanna Hill reflected on China's tenure in the WTO, welcomed China’s recent “assurances of ongoing economic reform,” and encouraged China’s leadership in WTO reform discussions.

Trade Remedies:

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced its preliminary affirmative determination in the antidumping (AD) investigation of 2,4-D — a common herbicide used in the United States — from China and India.

The department also made a preliminary determination on a petition challenging compliance with the 2019 Agreement Suspending the Antidumping Investigation on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico.

US-Mexico:

A new timeline has been published in the USMCA corn dispute. A final report is now expected to be completed by Nov. 29 and a translation completed and made public in December.

University of Arkansas economists published research on Mexican consumers’ willingness to pay premiums for non-GM products because of the GM corn ban.

WTO:

The WTO hosted a celebration of 30 years of the TBT Agreement in conjunction with last week’s TBT Committee meetings.

At a meeting of the WTO Working Party on State Trading Enterprises, 11 delegates called on Members to submit notifications on their STEs on time and respond to members’ questions in a timely manner, reiterating the need for greater transparency under WTO rules.??

“We will achieve success that no one can imagine. We will have the strongest economy, the most secure borders, the safest cities, the most powerful military, the best trade deals, and we will dominate the frontiers of science, medicine, business, technology, and space.”

–Excerpt from President-elect Donald J. Trump's Oct. 27 remarks at Madison Square Garden

TRUMP AND TRADE

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE GROUPS CONSIDER WHAT’S AHEAD

? Rumors are circulating about President-elect Donald Trump’s likely picks for leadership for the trade and agriculture positions in his next administration.

? Many news outlets are reporting on the impact of the Trump administration’s potential new tariffs, possible changes in the trading relationship with China, and how the new environment might impact trade negotiations.

? Trump has already had conversations with several of the United States’ largest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU.

oDuring a call between Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump, the leaders discussed trade, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, supply chains, and addressing unfair trading practices in the global economy.

TRADE PROMOTION

CHINESE INTERNATIONAL IMPORT EXPO

• Many U.S. food and agriculture organizations participated last week in the Chinese International Import Expo (CIIE).
• U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO Jim Sutter moderated a panel on the U.S.-China ag trade outlook from the industry’s perspective, which included participation from 12 U.S. industry representatives.
• In a LinkedIn post following the event, Sutter called the session “a productive and encouraging conversation on the huge future potential of U.S. and China agricultural trade, especially for U.S. Soy, as China is the largest consumer and importer of soybeans in the world.”
• During the Hongqiao International Economic Forum, an event held in conjunction with the CIIE, World Trade Organization Deputy Director General (DDG) Johanna Hill highlighted the effect of China’s membership in the WTO on the country’s economic growth, development, and market reforms.
• Hill highlighted calls from members for China to assume a greater leadership role in advancing WTO reform and opening its economy.
• The WTO press release notes Hill “welcomed China’s assurances of ongoing economic reform as ‘an important step towards fostering trust in a world where divisions deepen, and cooperation becomes increasingly challenging.’”

TRADE REMEDIES

2,4-D HERBICIDE FROM CHINA AND INDIA

• The U.S. Department of Commerce announced its preliminary affirmative determination in the antidumping (AD) investigation of 2,4-Dichlorophenozyacetic Acid (2,4-D) — a common herbicide used in the United States — from China and India.
• The preliminary dumping rates for China were 17.07% for producer Jiangxi Tianyu Chemicals Co. and 127.21% for other entities.
• The preliminary dumping rates for India ranged from 8.57-13.23%.
• The countervailing duty investigation is happening concurrently; preliminary duties in that investigation were announced on Sept. 10.
• Corteva petitioned for the investigation. A coalition of agricultural producers had advocated for DOC to consider the impacts on farmers when calculating duties in the investigation.

MEXICO TOMATO SUSPENSION AGREEMENT

• On Oct. 11, DOC’s International Trade Administration (ITA) made a preliminary determination that the first of three respondents selected to be reviewed under the 2019 Agreement Suspending the Antidumping Investigation on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico complied with the pact.? Determination on the other two respondents is pending.
• The administration review was requested by the Florida Tomato Exchange on Sept. 28, 2023.
• In the 2019 suspension agreement, Mexican signatories agreed to sell subject merchandise at or above certain minimum reference prices. In exchange, DOC would eliminate at least 85% of the dumping duties. Parties also agreed to measures such as quarterly audits, near-border inspection, and limits to adjustments to the sales price due to certain changes in condition and quality after shipment.

US-Mexico

USMCA CORN DISPUTE AND RELATED RESEARCH

• A new timeline has been published in the USMCA dispute in which the United States is challenging certain measures concerning genetically engineered corn.
• The timeline suggests that the initial translated report was provided to parties on Oct. 22 and comments back to the panel were submitted on or before Nov. 6.
• A final report is expected to be completed by Nov. 29 and a translation completed and made public in December.
• Meanwhile, a University of Arkansas economists released a related report — “Potential response of Mexican consumers to a Ban on genetically modified Maize imports.”
• Using survey data, the study shows 54% of Mexican consumers are unaware of Mexico’s GM corn ban. Of the consumers familiar with the ban, 77% support it.
• The responses show many consumers were willing to pay premiums to cover potential price increases due to the ban, but respondents with lower incomes demonstrated a relatively lower willingness to pay for non-GM products.
• The respondents demonstrated additional sensitivity to the potential job losses that would come from the GM corn ban.

WTO

TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE (TBT) AND STATE TRADING ENTERPRISES (STEs)

• The WTO hosted a celebration of 30 years of the TBT Agreement in conjunction with last week’s TBT Committee meetings.
• The program included reflections on the past and present, relationship with international standards, regulatory cooperation for 2023 and beyond from delegates and the private sector, and closing remarks by the WTO Director-General.
• At a meeting of the WTO Working Party on State Trading Enterprises, 11 delegates called on Members to submit notifications on their STEs on time and respond to members’ questions in a timely manner, reiterating the need for greater transparency under WTO rules.? ?
• Members also examined 32 STE notifications from 26 members.
• All members must submit a notification of STEs every two years, according to WTO rules.