- We introduce MacroX’s “Trump Effect Tracker” to understand the new political, social, and economic agendas shaping our world via alternative data.
- US citizens are unusually anxious about their overall finances - close to 2008 crisis levels - a fact not captured in the ‘good’ average economic data.?
- The three major pillars of the Trump agenda - Fiscal, Tariffs, and Immigration Policy responses will have to address US citizens’ main question - “How do I afford my life?” We believe this question will shape political conversations worldwide
- News media has been the most concerned around fiscal, tariffs, and immigration policy, the US CEOs are not yet as concerned as they were in 2016-2020, and top traders while concerned about Trump policies are much more worried about the Fed.
- Externally, Canadian CEOs are the most worried about tariffs, even as the same issues of affordability and immigration are more prevalent.
- Much can be attributed to President Trump but the 30-50 bps increase in term premium - a part of the 100 bp 10Y sell-off from September ‘24 might have more to do with recession risks being priced out and rising inflation concerns and less with policy uncertainty.
- This will be an extremely “data-dependent” year with not only the trend but the “second moment” or uncertainty playing a large role in the markets and we think alternative data will be crucial for a nimble response.
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