Towards a collective intelligence

We live in interesting times. It has been almost 100 years since Frank Knight published his 1921 seminal work on Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: and what a century it has been. One of Knight’s most famous propositions to come out of that work was to make a distinction between risk and uncertainty. He associated risk with outcomes whose odds could be measured (and therefore insurable), while uncertainty was associated with outcomes that could not be measured (and hence uninsurable). As we look back at the major crises since the publication of the book – geopolitical wars, financial crashes, climate change, epidemics, technological revolutions, terrorist attacks – we are led to reflect on the extent to which the odds of these crises could actually have been accurately measured before the fact. Given that many of these crises have been viewed as unpredictable, do we then conclude that we do not in fact live in a risky world but that we should resign ourselves to living in an uncertain world?

Of course, we need to acknowledge that the field of risk analysis has progressed significantly since 1921. We now have at our disposal a veritable arsenal of analytical tools, frameworks, and ways of thinking that continue to rapidly evolve in sophistication while continuing to be supported with ever-increasing computing power. Yet, the field always seems to remain a step or two behind major crises. This signals that we need to take a step back and think about how to do things differently in order to achieve the risk management outcomes that these challenging times demand.

The ubiquitousness of risk has given rise to a highly diverse and fragmented group of scholars, scientists, and professionals; and perhaps the speed at which the field has moved in different directions over the past several decades has prevented us from collaborating with each other a bit more. Perhaps the risk analysis and risk management solutions that we are individually searching for already exist in some form (rudimentary or otherwise), and simply need to be shared and further developed with multidisciplinary perspectives.

Our diverse field needs to move towards a collective intelligence. We need to build connections among people working in various risk disciplines in order to support the cross-pollination of ideas, tools and approaches. Today’s risk environment may certainly be much more complex that it has ever been in history, but today’s scholars, scientists and professionals are also much better equipped than ever before. Today’s risk landscape calls for us to establish better connections and to engage in stimulating dialogue with each other. It is only by doing so that we will be able to tap into our collective creativity and collective intelligence, and thus push the boundaries of our field towards new and complex ways of thinking about and managing risk.