Towards the 2024 US presidential election – Part 1

Throughout the election year, we will be providing updates to provide foresight and a broader understanding of the US presidential election. This is the first part of a series. Products will be published as part of geopolitical hotspots newsletter.

Review

Trump won the first Republican primary in Iowa, with DeSantis coming second and Nikki Haley third. Vivek Ramaswamy, meanwhile, announced that he would drop out of the race and continue to support Trump. Simplified and overall, Trump and DeSantis are partly eating each other's votes, although Trump is currently superior. Haley, on the other hand, is particularly popular among independent and moderate Republicans. Compared to a bit of past history, it has not been a case of moderates versus moderates in the US for a long time, but the political landscape has, as we know, only polarized over the last years. In terms of elections, this is more useful for the Republicans than for the Democrats.

Trump's success in the Republican primaries would likely have endured and would endure relatively poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. In other words, Iowa victory will significantly increase the likelihood of Trump winning the primaries. For the Democrats, Biden is currently the overwhelming favourite to be his party's presidential candidate.

Key takeaway 16/01/2024

At the moment, we anticipate that the actual election will be between Biden and Trump. For both, however, there are uncertainties in the race which, if they escalate, could change the balance.

Biden can currently be seen in two ways: as a saviour for the Democrats, but also as a bane. For the saviour part, it is true that of the Democratic candidates, Biden is the only one who has a statistically real chance of defeating Trump. At the same time, Biden's unpopularity and his age must be recognized when estimating the race. It is foolish at this stage to draw too far-reaching conclusions about the actual election result. However, at this very moment, Trump is a slight favourite.

We will continue to follow the election closely, and free updated forecasts will be available to you in the future by following this newsletter.

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