Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a war of exhaustion. In Kyiv, talk has turned to some form of ceasefire, though not one on Moscow’s terms. The?key?is to forge a path toward a truce that can last?and lay groundwork for a more, rather than less, secure Europe.?
// On Our Radar
Haiti
Leslie Voltaire, president of Haiti’s transitional government, formally asked the UN Tuesday to transform the multinational security mission deployed to the country into a blue-helmet peacekeeping operation. The request comes in the wake of gang attacks in several parts of Port-au-Prince and elsewhere, including a massacre in Pont Sondé that left at least 115 dead. Speaking at the Security Council Tuesday, the UN secretary-general's special representative to Haiti, Maria Isabel Salvador, highlighted that the Kenya-led mission to support national police in fighting the gangs remains "critically under-resourced”. Regardless of how the UN responds, says Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin , it is urgent that outside powers step up support for the Kenya-led mission to ensure it can curtail the violence besieging Haiti.
Mozambique
Tensions and political violence have risen sharply following the 9 October presidential election, which local and foreign observers say were riddled with irregularities. Results announced on Thursday confirmed an expected victory for Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party. The independent opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane, backed by the Podemos party, alleged that the vote was rigged, claimed victory for himself and called for protests. Gunmen killed Modlane’s lawyer and a political aide in Maputo Saturday. Protests on Monday and Thursday were met with crackdowns, with police using live ammunition. To avoid further escalation, says Crisis Group expert Nicolas Delaunay, all political actors should speak out in favour of dialogue. Maputo should also follow through on its pledge to investigate the assassinations.
Türkiye
Assailants killed five people and wounded more than twenty Wednesday at the headquarters of Turkish Aerospace Industries near Ankara. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Türkiye, the U.S. and the European Union designate as a terrorist organisation, has subsequently claimed responsibility for the attack. In response, Ankara intensified strikes on PKK bases in northern Iraq and northern Syria. The events came after a surprise proposal by Devlet Bah?eli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party and a close ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, that authorities give parole to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah ?calan if he announces the group's dissolution. Crisis Group expert Berkay Mand?rac? says it is too early to tell whether this violence will undermine the efforts under way to end the four-decade conflict.
You can find previous editions of?On Our Radar?here.?
// Publication
In Gaza, the Time of Greatest Peril
The U.S. should not wait to see if Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s killing opens a window to end the Gaza war. Washington must move to halt Israel’s campaign in the strip’s north and ensure a regular aid flow throughout. Admonitions alone will not suffice.
Also available in Arabic.
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// Podcasts
The “Generals’ Plan”, Sinwar’s Death and a Year in Gaza
This week on?Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Bletcher about Israel’s intensified offensive in Northern Gaza, dire humanitarian conditions there, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and a year of war in Gaza.?
Click here to listen on?Apple Podcast or?Spotify.?
Inondations en Afrique : le changement climatique est-il un facteur de conflit ?
Dans cet épisode d’Afrique 360°, Enrica Picco et Rinaldo Depagne re?oivent Catherine-Lune Grayson, responsable de la section des politiques humanitaires au CICR, en charge du travail de recherche et d’influence de l’organisation sur le changement climatique, pour parler des conséquences des inondations et de la relation entre le changement climatique et les conflits armés.
Cliquez ici pour écouter sur?Apple Podcasts?ou?Spotify.
// Spaces Recording
The Next U.S. Administration's China Policy: Trump 2.0 vs. Harris
In this space, Crisis Group's Chief of Policy?Stephen Pomper?and Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for?U.S.-China?Aly Wyne?discussed the next U.S Administration's China Policy.?
A recording of this Space is now available?here.
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Former Safety Director & OIC Southeast Asia JPAC
4 天前See and hear Grand Canyon Fatality Forecast Briefing which may have come true (with working links). Exhibit L before the 9th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals captures precisely the NPS Grand Canyon National Park safety and leadership culture as an incomparable case study. Updates to the case study will be continually added to the Not So Grand LinkedIn group page. The Task & Purpose is that no one has to ever give a Fatality Forecast Briefing. Notable links: Actual helicopter accident footage pages 36, 37, 86. Exhibit L: https://lnkd.in/gGfrZ69Q Audio of formal notification of data predicting a fatality to Superintendents and PSET: https://lnkd.in/gfc7TdKF Yes, an excavation plan calling for D-ringing someone to an excavator and snatching them out of the unprotected trench in case of a cave-in was seriously floated. (00:09:55) There was no investigation conducted by the Department of the Interior nor National Park Service for either aircraft accident I was ordered not to investigate the helicopter accidents. So, I hiked 11 miles (5.5 one way) into the Grand Canyon to Indian Gardens water pumping station to conduct my own investigation on my weekend off Thank You to the workers who came forward for this Very Sincerely, Swede
Deputy Director at Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS)
4 周Thanks for this commentary and the observations. I am not convinced, though, that giving in to defaitism and encouraging Ukraine to be a demandeur in relation to Moscow is a way to enhance European security - quite the contrary. We should all have learned the lessons of Moscow’s repeated #negotiationtheatre and the Minsk agreements: that was the groundwork for the 2022 full scale invasion. Today the stakes are higher than last time - not just for Ukraine, but for all of us. Wrote a bit about that here: https://sceeus.se/publikationer/navigating-the-lure-of-russian-negotiation-theatre-what-europe-should-talk-about-when-theres-talk-of-talks-3/
Historian and Bibliographer of the Stalinist Holodomor Genocide of 1932-33.
4 周Too bad that “Ukraine is a war of exhaustion.” They are doing our dirty work for us. How about giving them the same support and active assistance as auto-lavished on Israel—or are we proving Orwell’s postulation yet again?