Tough times ahead for markets and the economy
Happy Friday, readers.?Today we're diving into a few rather bleak outlooks on the economy and the market. Then, you can see why more than half of oil executives blame shareholders — not the government — for limits on crude production.
Let's get into it.
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1. The chips are stacked against the market and the economy.?A chorus of experts have voiced concern over what the coming months may hold. Notably, Wells Fargo's head of macro strategy?predicts a 50% chance of a recession in 2023 ?thanks to a range of factors from inflation to spiking mortgage rates to geopolitical conflict.?
"There's not really a great path for the Fed to try and limit?recession ?risk, as far as going big, going early, going 50 basis points in May…I don't know if it really changes the ultimate question of how you calibrate all these issues that are coming together," the strategist told?CNBC Thursday.
And while the pandemic showed the stock market can soar even as the economy falters, it probably won't be that way this time around. Barclay's on Thursday became the latest bank to?slash its S&P 500 forecast ?for the year, and said reduced consumer spending on goods will hamper earnings growth.
With the COVID-19 pandemic waning, spending on goods will slow down and fiscal stimulus will run out, the Barclays analysts wrote.
Even after lowering its target, the bank still?called its prediction overly optimistic.?
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In other news:
2. Stock futures and oil are ticking lower.?Investors are weighing up the possible outcome of US/European talks this week, including what to do about Russia's energy exports.?Here's what's happening on the markets .
3. Earnings on deck:?Farmers Edge, Lifeist Wellness, and BRP Inc,?all reporting .
4. Bank of America broke down the good, the bad, and the ugly for its commodities outlook.?As conflict rages on in Ukraine, the need to hedge against inflation has heightened.?BofA offered three price scenarios for oil, gas, and metals to keep top of mind right now .
5. Chinese and European markets have seen a massive capital exodus since Russia invaded Ukraine.?"Outflows from China on the scale and intensity we are seeing are unprecedented," the Institute of International Finance said in a report.?Dig into the data to see why investors are shedding their positions .?
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This newsletter was curated by Phil Rosen.
Thoughts or questions? Sound off in the comments section below.
Kreativit?t ist ein Vergnügen, das sich als Arbeit verkaufen l??t.
2 年Tough times ahead for climate and the environment. Who cares about economy?
Airline & Insurance IT Expert
2 年Very cool
Bachelor of Commerce - BCom from Nizam College at Hyderabad Public School
2 年????
Attorney Advisor at Social Security Administration (SSA)
2 年The short term forecast for the equities market may look bleak but for those investors is this not a sale. Although the concern is that there may be other sectors more favorable for investment funds and those sectors are yet to be determined. But still for those investing for the long-term perhaps they should stay the course. My concern is for all of those companies who invested in resale estate.? If the economy goes south, doesn't real estate dry up? Of course, the rental market may remain solid unless people move in together to reduce costs. Nothing is ever static.