Toronto Maple Leafs 2018-2019 Season Summary

As several friends continued to inquire about when I would be posting my summary of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ season, I felt that I must oblige them and unload my thoughts for everyone to consider, critique, and debate. And, by all means, feel free to engage in debate – although, at this point, I’ve already checked out of Leaf-land to focus on more positive sport stories (i.e. Raptors, Nathan Mackinnon, Wild Card upsets, Guerrero Jr., etc.). Anyways, without further hesitation, here is my annual review of the Toronto Maple Leafs season.

In a 2018-2019 season that began with such promise – heightened by the acquisition of one of the most highly-coveted free agents the NHL has ever seen – this was a season that featured tremendous levels of parity, anxiety, and what felt like a severe lack of cohesion within the organization. What should have been easy, ended up being difficult. What should have been a given, was often shrouded in uncertainty and indecision. Such is the nature of the business of sport, I guess. However, beyond the expected nuances of business-related decisions, this season featured a general feeling of disunity. This sentiment was felt from the time that a core player decided to hold out during his contract negotiations, to the end of the regular season when the team’s GM and head coach cryptically stated their opposition to the other’s philosophy. To be fair, there were a significant number of incredible moments this season both from individual players and as a collective – let’s try not to forget that the Leafs finished as the league’s seventh-best team. And, with such a young core, the Leafs are poised to be a strong team for years to come. So, even though the season seemed plagued by inconsistency and the Leafs were ultimately trounced by Boston once again, it wasn’t ALL bad! Leaf fans – let’s try to cool down, remove ourselves from the coup d’etat aimed at the head coach – for now – and review a season that, at the very least, should indicate that the ‘contender’ label is not too far off of the horizon.

Highlights/Positives/Upward Trends:

1. Mitch Marner

There isn’t much that I can say about Mitch Marner that isn’t already common knowledge. He’s led the Leafs in points for the last two seasons – an impressive accomplishment considering the talented players on the roster. This year, he finished with 94 points which was good for 11th overall in the NHL. His production at even strength was also impressive with 70 of his points coming at even strength (9th in the league). Marner’s playmaking abilities are perhaps his most valuable asset – highlighted by the fact that 52 of his 70 assists were primary assists, meaning that it was his pass directly that led to a goal. We all know Marner is a generational talent when it comes to offense. I think what stood out to me most this season however, was his defensive growth. This was nowhere more evident than in his penalty killing (PK): Marner went from playing a total of 4 minutes on the PK in 2017/2018 to an incredible 110 minutes this year! It can be argued that he was, in fact, one of the team’s most effective PK specialists. By applying his speed to pressure powerplay (PP) units and using his high hockey IQ to take away passing lanes, Marner was constantly a thorn in the side of many PP units. Additionally, Marner was often on the ice in the last minutes of close games – a role which was perhaps a by-product of playing alongside John Tavares, but a role in which he thrived nonetheless. If Marner continues to develop at the rate he has in his first three seasons, we may be witnessing the evolution of the next Patrick Kane – or better. Kane amassed 230 points in 242 games in his first three seasons. Marner has 224 points in 241 games in his first three seasons – even while playing significant minutes on the 4th line in his second season.

2. Morgan Rielly

Morgan Rielly being left off of the list of Norris Trophy candidates felt like a massive snub, which should indicate just how incredible a season the 25-year old had (it feels like he’s 33, doesn’t it??). Rielly was an absolute all-star who seemed to finally fully embrace his offensive instincts, constantly joining the rush and making slick back-door passes. He led all NHL defenceman with 20 goals, which was more than teammates Nazem Kadri (16), Patrick Marleau (16), and William Nylander (7) scored, and was 3rd in points by a defenceman with 72 behind only Mark Giordano (74) and Brent Burns (83) – both coincidentally Norris candidates. Based on the way Rielly plays with his heart on his sleeve and how much he seems to enjoy being a Leaf, I firmly believe that Rielly should be the 1st choice for the next Toronto Maple Leafs captain.

3. John Tavares

With such extremely high expectations, John Tavares’ first season with the Leafs could have fallen well short of predictions. However, I would say that the Toronto-native far surpassed those expectations, as he set a career-high in goals and often times looked like the most composed man on the planet, let alone the Leafs’ bench. His 47 goals were good for 3rd overall in the NHL and his 88 points were good for 16th best. Moreover, his possession metrics were positive and above his career averages, even though his line was tasked with matching up against the top lines of opposing teams on most nights. I think what stood out to me most this season was Tavares’ effectiveness in neutralizing the Bruins’ top line in the playoffs (remember how utterly dominant that line was the year before) as they hardly made any offensive contributions – Tavares’ effectiveness actively forced Bruce Cassidy to move David Pastrnak off of the first line (it unfortunately worked… but that’s beside the point). In essence, Tavares epitomizes what it means to be a character player.

4. Auston Matthews

37 goals in 68 games played. That is a Goal Per Game (GPG) average of 0.54. Not Points Per Game… Goals per game! Just for comparison, Alex Ovechkin’s GPG average the last three seasons is 0.54. Once again, Matthews reminded us of how dominant a goal scorer he is. In addition, Matthews’ advanced possession metrics were all the highest of his young career which is definitely a great sign as this suggests that his 200-foot game continues to develop. Unfortunately, this was the 2nd straight year that Matthews suffered a significant shoulder injury which not only limited his games played, but also led to bigger questions about the durability of his shoulders. Shoulder injury aside, Matthews continues to amaze me as a player – he seems like one of those players who finds one or two things to improve upon in the offseason and then come back the next year and dominate in those categories (think Sidney Crosby, Mark Scheifele, Nathan Mackinnon). Speaking of Nathan Mackinnon, there are a lot of similarities between his and Matthews’ style, the difference being 3 years of experience for Mackinnon – and look at how ridiculously good he is now (get excited for Matthews’ development curve, in other words). It should also be mentioned that Matthews’ had a much, much better playoff performance even while his two wingers struggled to find their games.

5. Andreas Johnson

Even though I just mentioned how Auston Matthews’ wingers struggled in the playoffs – including Andreas Johnsson – I think that Johnsson took enormous strides in his rookie season. He scored 20 goals, 43 points, and was a +14 in 73 games played. Most notably, Johnsson utilized his speed to generate high-quality scoring chances for himself and his linemates. Although I would like to see him play with more control (he lost his balance quite often) and dictate the play with his hockey IQ and skill more frequently, he had a solid rookie campaign. Much like his teammate Kapanen, let’s hope that management can find a way to re-sign Johnsson to a team-friendly contract.

6. 4th Line (Tyler Ennis/Trevor Moore/Frederik Gauthier)

Rather than have lengthy paragraphs for each of these players, whom I thought all deserved some recognition, I will simply acknowledge their contributions by way of summation. Tyler Ennis: a very productive, bargain-contract player who seemed to play engaged in every shift that he was given. Trevor Moore: another example of the Leafs’ success in developing young players in the AHL and transitioning them to the NHL – definitely going to be a big asset to the bottom-6 moving forward. Frederik Gauthier: although he won’t score many goals or use his size to by physically-dominant, I found that for what Gauthier is, he improved substantially from previous years. Playing with the big club for an entire season definitely benefited his skating stride and positional play which led to him becoming a more effective 4th line centre.

7. Jake Muzzin

As the big deadline acquisition (although it was about a month before the trade deadline), there was a considerable amount of pressure on Jake Muzzin to come in and play hero on the blue-line for the Leafs. With such high levels of concern from analysts, fans, and even the head coach about the team’s defensive depth, it must have felt to Muzzin that he had to per flawless. Well… as we all saw in the last few weeks of the season, Muzzin was anything but flawless. However, when it came time to buckle down for the playoffs, Muzzin proved his worth and, in my opinion, was the most consistent Leaf throughout the entire 1st round series. If he can continue that physical and shut-down style of defense into next season, that will go a long way in addressing lingering defensive concerns.

8. Honourable Mentions:

? Kasperi Kapanen: aside from a slow finish to the regular season and a far from impressive playoffs, Kapanen was a valuable asset on the wing of Matthews. His speed is in the upper echelon of the NHL and it consistently creates a plethora of high-quality offensive opportunities. Let’s hope that slow finish allows GM Kyle Dubas to negotiate a team-friendly deal that retains Kapanen as an extremely valuable player for years to come. 

? Travis Dermott: Yes, he also had a slow finish to the season and a less-than-stellar postseason performance, but let’s not forget that he was returning from a significant shoulder injury that kept him out of the lineup for over a month. It was not so long ago that Morgan Rielly struggled to return to the lineup after recovering from a significant injury… Dermott showed tremendous development in his first full season in the NHL. With good Corsi (54.9%), Fenwick (53.6%), and other possession metrics, Dermott will continue to develop into a solid defenceman for the Leafs. Gardiner who? 

? Calle Rosen: Rosen looked solid in his short stint with the Leafs. Although his advanced stats would suggest otherwise, keep in mind that he was inserted into the lineup during a time when the Leafs were struggling mightily as a team and losing a lot of games. In 4 games played, Rosen had a goal and a shot % through of 50% - take from that what you will. 

? Jeremy Bracco: Bracco played the entire season with the Toronto Marlies of the AHL, so why would he be on this list? Well, he finished second in the entire AHL in points scored with 79! Another small, speedy forward, Bracco could be the answer if the team ends up parting ways with a roster player due to cap issues (think Andreas Johnsson, Kapanen, Connor Brown, etc.).

? Management: For a first-year GM, especially in the Toronto market, Kyle Dubas did a relatively good job. Yes, there were significant issues (such as the Nylander contract dispute), and yes there are those (*cough* the coach *cough*) who would suggest he didn’t do enough at the trade deadline. However, here’s where I found Dubas to be impressive: the ability to handle the media while remaining mostly transparent; showing that he had the charisma and willingness to make large trades (Jake Muzzin); and perhaps most importantly, showing his patience to stick to the larger plan while not succumbing to the pressures of the fan base, media, and his own coach who were calling for moves that would have required surrendering assets. Also, the scouting staff continues to impress (Rasmus Sandin looks good).

Low-lights/Disappointments/Concerns:

1. Coaching

Let me start this section off by stating that I do not believe that Mike Babcock will be fired – that would be reactionary and counter-intuitive, considering that he has been at the helm since the beginning of the rebuild and starting anew in what is already going to be a tumultuous off-season may prove costly to the teams’ progression. That said, I do think that there were major concerns with how Mike Babcock coached the Leafs this season, particularly in the playoffs. I won’t waste any time going over all of his mistakes as we have all heard about them from analysts and forums alike. What I do think is worthy of mentioning is the fact that Babcock was wholly unapologetic in his end-of-the-year press conference, virtually absolving himself from any shred of accountability. This was disappointing from a coach whose whole mantra seems to demand responsibility and accountability from his own players. Sometimes we all make mistakes – that’s okay. And sometimes, we own up to those mistakes – that’s okay too. With Babcock’s playoff mistakes being borne from rigidity and his stubborn style of coaching (i.e. playing Marleau so many minutes, refusing to shuffle his lines, putting Hyman out for important faceoffs even though he had a TORN ACL, etc.), it’s no surprise that his press-conference offered no flexibility either. Professionalism is sometimes showing that you have the capacity to adapt and change your philosophy to move the product forward. Babcock certainly did not adapt when it mattered most and, barring an off-season of introspection and revelation, I don’t suspect much will change when he returns next season. Hopefully, he’ll at least realize that he should be playing his 40 goal scorers more than 20 minutes in important games, and his unproductive 39-year-olds a little less. That’s not too much to ask, right?

2. 3rd Line (William Nylander/Patrick Marleau/Connor Brown)

Again, much like the review of the 4th line, I will not go into too much detail about the critiques I have for the Leafs’ 3rd line. Rather, I will summarize my thoughts into a couple of sentences. William Nylander: after holding the team hostage during his contract negotiations by holding out until the last minute, Nylander brought high expectations upon himself – especially considering that he was the 2nd highest paid Leaf this season and, until Marner signs his impending deal, will be the 3rd highest paid Leaf going into next season behind only Tavares and Matthews. So, considering the fact that he was completely unproductive this season and in the playoffs, I would argue that Nylander was perhaps the biggest disappointment of the entire season. To give him the benefit of the doubt, we should allow him to show us what he is capable of with a full season to work and (hopefully) better wingers or playing alongside Matthews again. Yes, some of his underlying advanced metrics were positive, but I would argue that these numbers were inflated by playing against sub-par opposition and benefitting from matching up against other 3rd lines and bottom-pairing defenseman. The biggest concern by far for me was the apparent laissez-faire attitude that Nylander had in critical moments, where he looked utterly disengaged from the play and was often seen laughing with opponents. The only thing I can say is that he’s only got one more chance to prove to the fan base and, more importantly, his teammates that he actually cares. Patrick Marleau: I will not criticize Marleau too much because he is a Hall-of-Famer and we don’t know what conversations were had between him and the coach. The man is 39 years old and is playing in a league that is characterized inherently by youth, so it is no surprise that he has regressed. Marleau is a great leader and would be an amazing depth forward to have on your team – were he not making $6.25 million per year. Connor Brown: Brown is yet another Leaf forward who regressed significantly this season in his production. In 82 games this season Brown had only 8 goals and 29 points. In 7 playoff games against the Bruins, he had 1 assist. Definitely not the production expected from a player earning over $2 million per year – look for management to explore trade options with this player.

3. Backup Goaltending

When management placed both Curtis McElhinney and Calvin Pickard on waivers and they were picked up by the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers respectively, many questioned the decision. Mostly, the criticisms were directed at the decision to let go of McElhinney who had been absolutely stellar in the previous season for the Leafs. There were other questions about Garret Sparks – the goaltender who was chosen to replace them. Sparks was brilliant in the AHL but as we have often seen, the transition from the AHL to the NHL is not always easy. Such was the case this season for Sparks who was brutal in the majority of his starts. In 17 games started, Sparks was 8-9 with a 3.15 GAA and a .902 save %. Those are terrible stats for a backup goalie on a team that is expected – and good enough – to be considered a contender. The fact that Sparks was reassigned for development a week before the playoffs and was not on the bench for the playoffs is enough evidence to suggest that the organization had lost all faith in his abilities to be counted upon. I don’t think it helped his cause when he publicly called out his teammates for their lack of emotion, as those are the types of comments reserved for captains and leaders. Nevertheless, expect to see Sparks back next season as he is an affordable option on a roster quickly running out of cap room.

4. Defense 

Although there were multiple positives from the defense this season (Rielly, Dermott, Muzzin’s re-emergence in the playoffs) there were again many negative trends on the defensive side of the puck. We all know how I feel about a certain player (who now, by the way, has the worst +/- rating in playoff game 7’s in NHL history) so I won’t spend too much time on that because hopefully, we’ve seen the last of him on the Leafs. Any argument you try to put forward in his defense will not matter to me – I’ve been saying for years that the Leafs will not win with this player on the roster and his play has continually proved me right. In terms of team-defense, there were some concerning trends. The Leafs were 8th worst in shots against and finished 12th worst in goals allowed (with a goaltender who is arguably one of the best in the league). There have been marginal improvements to the advanced defensive metrics but there is still a ton of room for improvement.

5. Specialty Teams/Systems (especially the PP)

The specialty teams were the difference in the series against the Bruins as the PP was non-effective and the PK was atrocious. Unfortunately, this was not an anomaly but was rather a microcosm of the entire season as the specialty teams were inconsistent and fell significantly short of expectations. The PP began the year as one of the league’s best but gradually became stale and one which lacked creativity. For the amount of fire-power on the first PP unit and with a player as creative as Mitch Marner, for the Leaf’s PP to finish as the league’s 16th best, that is a major disappointment. Equally as disappointing was the PK which was only 17th best. As we see year-after-year, to win in the playoffs, teams must have superior special teams and this is definitely an area where the Leafs must improve.

6. Disunity within the organization

For a team that finished 7th overall in the entire NHL, there were far too many instances where there was clear disunity. The most successful organizations consistently have cohesion from top-to-bottom and, more importantly, do not make their internal disagreements public. There seemed to be an awful lot of dirty laundry airing this season as the coach and GM often provided the media with cryptic messages on philosophy. Moreover, the coach repeatedly and blatantly stated that the team was not deep enough, he did not have the right personnel options available to him, and that he would rather play injured players over his healthy depth options. This was striking in both its boldness and its context – Toronto is the most frenzied and exaggerative hockey market on the planet! Either management has to get on the same page, or someone needs to go – you will not become a winning organization when both the coach and the GM actively try to throw the other under the bus. Adapt or sink. It’s ultimately their choice.

7. Lack of Captaincy 

After several years of going captain-less and grooming their players to become leaders, it is definitely time for the organization to name their next captain. With players like John Tavares, Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews, and even Mitch Marner, there is no excuse anymore not to have a captain. As trivial as it sounds, having a captain makes an enormous difference. They are the team’s defined leader and the individual who embodies the team’s character. It seems as though the Leafs could have desperately used a captain the last couple of years in the playoffs when the leaders for the Bruins seemed to dictate play while their teammates gravitated towards their leadership. My early pick for captain is John Tavares, based on his experience and obvious leadership capabilities. However, as I mentioned earlier, Morgan Rielly deserves strong consideration as he seems to embody what it means to be a Maple Leaf – and clearly loves putting it all on the line for his teammates. Additionally, Rielly has been with the Leafs since he was drafted by them seven years ago – he put in his dues with the Leafs’ farm system, has played his entire career here, and should have been a Norris Trophy candidate this season.

8. Honourable Mentions:

? Nazem Kadri: the projected strength of the Leafs, which was supposed to separate them from the rest of the league, was their depth at the centre-ice position. Having Tavares and Matthews as the first two centres, allowed Kadri to slide into the third line position, where it was expected that he’d dominate opposing third lines. That was not the case. Although Kadri was coming off of back-to-back 30 goal seasons, he was not able to take advantage of the new role he was put in and struggled mightily on the PP, even with the likes of Matthews and Tavares. The two strengths going into this season were projected to be the centre depth and the PP – both were less than impressive, and a big reason why was Kadri. Let’s also not forget that for the 2nd year in a row, in an almost identical position, Kadri decided to remove himself from the playoffs with a bonehead move. Let’s hope he can bounce back next season and become the effective pest we all know he can be. 

? The Corporate Crowd: yes, again, I wanted to mention the suits and ties… the crowd at the Scotiabank Arena is uninspiring, even at the best of times. Most nights – except for Saturday games – you can hear the players talking to one another as the play progresses up the ice. Our crowd is being outclassed by non-traditional hockey markets (San Jose, Nashville, Dallas, etc.) while the most passionate fans are left to watch the game at home or in the recesses of King St. West bars. It’s abysmal, and there is nothing to be done about it, but I just wanted to mention it again because it agitates me every year!

That’s it! Hope you enjoyed yet another year of reading (or scrolling – I wouldn’t blame you) through my summary of the Leafs’ season that was. Here’s to a long off-season – we’ll reconvene in the Fall!