Top Ten Charts: October Edition ??

Q4 is in full swing, and things are as busy as ever—especially at Research+Attitude, where I’m currently wrapping up our client portfolio for most of 2025.

But the world of travel and mobility innovation isn’t slowing down either.

This October edition of OneChart has a lot to unpack. In fact, I couldn’t narrow it down to just ten charts, so today’s edition is a bit longer than usual.

As always, I’ve handpicked what I believe are the most insightful data charts on the key trends shaping the future of how we move from point A to point B.

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Best, Lennart.

Chart #1: Elon’s Rollercoaster Month ??

October was packed with Elon Musk headlines—some jaw-dropping, others... well, less so.

• On the cool side, SpaceX literally caught a rocket mid-air—and not just any rocket, but the largest booster rocket ever assembled—using giant metal chopsticks. Unreal, right?

But then things took a turn.

• Musk’s much-hyped autonomous humanoids? It turned out they were just remote-controlled robots.
• And Tesla’s robotaxi prototype (dubbed Cybercab)? It's a PR stunt—nothing more. Elon claimed it would ship in two years but said nothing to make anyone believe that would happen on that timeline.

As a result, the market didn’t hold back either.?

Tesla’s stock took a nosedive post-event while ride-hailing competitors like Lyft and Uber saw their shares jump; see this No Mercy / No Malice visual.

Chart #2: Robo-Taxi Hype Isn’t Slowing Down ??

Despite Tesla’s flop with the Cybercab, the hype around autonomous mobility is far from cooling down.

• As discussed in OneChart’s August edition, 2024 has been marked by a renewed belief in the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs).?
• A real tipping point drove this momentum: Alphabet-owned Waymo achieved real-world autonomous rides in California to double in just three months this summer.

Given this, it's no surprise that Waymo just closed a new $5.6 billion USD funding round to expand its robotaxi service across the U.S.

That reignited optimism in AVs is also reflected in TNMT’s latest Unicorn analysis by Lufthansa Innovation Hub (quick transparency note: I’m a co-creator):

Two-thirds of the 12 new unicorn startups since 2022 in the travel and mobility space are focused on Ground Transportation—primarily autonomous driving.

Chart #3: The Travel Tech Unicorn Drought ??

Sticking with the TNMT unicorn analysis for a moment, there’s another key insight worth highlighting—this time in an area that’s been, well, lagging in innovation: travel tech.

While autonomous mobility is seeing new unicorns emerge, core travel-tech innovations—the kind that could truly transform how we inspire, book, and experience travel—haven’t produced any new billion-dollar companies in recent years.

It’s a bit of a disappointing reality.

The visionary travel-tech breakthroughs many hoped for in the post-pandemic travel recovery—the ones that could reshape travel booking on a massive scale—just haven’t materialized (yet).

Here’s a full breakdown of all unicorn companies in Travel and Mobility Tech, with familiar travel names like GetYourGuide and others still holding their ground.

Chart #4: Is Germany’s EV Future Really “Unrealistic”? ??

From travel-tech and AVs to the mobility disruption most impactful today: electric vehicles.

The debate over the future of the car industry in Germany took an interesting twist last month when BMW’s CEO, Oliver Zipse, claimed that the EU’s 2035 deadline for banning CO2-emitting cars is "no longer realistic."

Data suggests otherwise.

According to the chart below from Twitter user LeRaffl, if we consider typical S-curve adoption patterns—which illustrate how new technologies begin with slow uptake, then experience rapid growth, and finally level off as they saturate the market—battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in Germany (see the green line) are showing a similar trajectory.?

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Following this pattern, it’s projected that BEVs will achieve an 80% market share in Germany before 2035!

What’s really fascinating is comparing this S-curve projection with other countries.

Take Norway, the world’s most advanced EV market.?

No need for predictions there—EV adoption is already above 80% today, nicely following the S-curve model.

China tells a similarly interesting story.?

As discussed in our September edition, China is now at the tipping point where the combined share of fully electric (green line) and hybrid cars (blue line) has surpassed that of traditional gas-powered vehicles (red line).?

Following this trajectory, EVs will make up 80% of new car sales in China before 2027, so in about two years!

The key takeaway for Germany?

The decline of internal combustion engines (ICEs) is inevitable.?

If German automakers stick to producing ICE cars, they’ll lose even more ground to Chinese EV giants like BYD, who rapidly take more market share.

Chart #5: Time to Rethink Subsidies ??

Instead of denying or ignoring the EV transition, we need to find ways to accelerate it.

One of the most impactful strategies? Cutting subsidies for gas-powered cars.

Surprised they still exist? They do.

In the five biggest EU countries alone, subsidies for petrol and diesel company cars cost taxpayers a staggering €42 billion every year, according to a recent study by T&E .

For context: company cars make up about 60% of all new car registrations in Europe, making them mission-critical for the electric transition.

But here’s the issue: thanks to tax benefits for ICE-powered company cars, the uptake of EVs among company fleets in most European countries—like Germany, France, and Spain—lags behind private cars.

The UK stands out as an exception.

Why?

The UK imposes steep penalties on petrol and diesel company vehicles, while electric company car drivers enjoy lower taxes.

The result? The uptake of electric company cars in the UK is now at 21.5%, the highest share in Europe.

The lesson? Incentives matter, and removing those that benefit gas-guzzlers is key to driving the EV transition.

Chart #6: Incentivizing Clean-Tech Growth ?

Speaking of the right incentives—let’s talk about the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the U.S., which is widely considered one of the most progressive and aggressive legislative moves to combat climate change and accelerate the clean-tech transition.

• The IRA provides significant financial incentives for clean energy technologies, including those critical for the EV transition.?
• One area that has benefited immensely is domestic EV battery production, which is growing rapidly within the U.S.

To quantify the impact, as per Joseph Politano : U.S. battery production has surged by more than 50% since the IRA's introduction in late 2022.

Chart #7: The Uncertain Future of the U.S. EV Transition ??

Can we expect the U.S. to continue doubling down on its EV transition??

Well, that’s becoming a bigger question, especially with the upcoming presidential election.

BloombergNEF predicts that the election's outcome will likely reshape global climate progress.?

• Former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party have already vowed to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act.
• And if Vice President Harris steps in, political compromises will likely keep U.S. climate and energy policy also far behind what’s necessary to meet the country’s ambitious net-zero goals.

Charts #8 & 9: The U.S. EV Transition ????

Despite all the ideological and political divisions surrounding electric vehicles, the EV transition in the U.S. is marching forward—and it just crossed a major milestone.

For the first time, quarterly sales of new EVs in the United States have surpassed those in Europe, hitting a record-breaking 344,000 vehicles sold in Q3 2024.

But there’s still a long way to go.

Two significant challenges are still holding back even faster EV adoption.

First, costs remain a major barrier.

Many automakers are hesitant to go all-in on electric due to lower profit margins compared to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles; see this Bain & Company analysis.

This limits the variety of EV options available on the market—particularly affordable models—making the switch to electric less accessible for many consumers.

Secondly, the U.S. charging infrastructure struggles to keep up with ambitious EV plans.

At the current growth rate, the country is set to fall short of its 2030 goal of 500,000 public EV chargers, as outlined by the IRA; see this Sherwood News chart.

Chart #10: Changing Mobility Patterns ??????

The next chart is one I found myself revisiting the most this month.?

Although it's in German, it's easy to translate.

• Published by the Dutch "Society of Movement" (and found here) this chart shows the average distance traveled per person, per day in the Netherlands, broken down by major modes of transport over the past 70 years.
• The color coding is as follows: blue represents air travel, orange and red show car travel (as driver and passenger, respectively), dark green stands for public transport, and light green represents biking.

So, what are the key takeaways?

• Over the past 70 years, people have been traveling a lot more, driven by the democratization of travel—more people can afford cars, and flight tickets have become much more accessible.
• But since 2000, car travel (see red and orange) has remained relatively flat (which is good), while air travel has surged rapidly (which you can interpret in different ways, I’d argue).

Now, while the growth in air travel didn’t surprise me personally, I was struck by the fact that public transport (dark green) and bike travel (light green) haven’t expanded more.

What do you think?

Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments or email me!

Extra Chart #11: Are Airlines Actually in the Business of Flying? ??

No OneChart edition would be complete without a dedicated aviation highlight.

And this one serves as a key reminder—something even seasoned professionals in the airline industry often overlook.

Most airlines aren’t making their profits by transporting people from point A to point B through the air.?

Instead, they’re hidden loyalty companies, with an airline arm.

Case in point: as visualized by Courtney Miller and Visual Approach Analytics, Delta Air Lines would be unprofitable if it relied solely on its core airline business.

In other words: the revenue Delta generates from flying passengers and cargo isn’t enough to cover the costs associated with those flights.

So, where does Delta’s positive 9% profit margin in Q3/2024 come from??

Primarily from selling and managing frequent-flyers, aka loyalty points.

Here’s a striking comparison:?

• Over the past 12 months, Delta’s total loyalty revenues—generated from selling and redeeming SkyMiles—totaled $7 billion USD.?
• To put that into perspective, the entire GDP of Barbados is $6.8 billion USD!

Extra Chart #12: The Labor Shortage Crisis ??

Our final chart for today addresses what is arguably the most pressing challenge facing airlines, the travel sector, and, in fact, the entire Western economy: the labor shortage.

The rise in labor demand coincides with a steep increase in labor costs, driven by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and changing workforce expectations.?

In fact, labor costs within the travel and logistics sectors have surged by as much as 40% from 2018 to 2023, according to this McKinsey report.

One effective way to tackle this crisis? Talent mobility.

By enabling workers from countries with an oversupply of labor to take on roles in countries facing severe shortages (hello, Germany), we could significantly mitigate the labor crunch.

I personally find the talent shortage to be one of the most paradoxically ignored crises of our time—perhaps even more so than climate change.

Why “paradoxical”??

Because, unlike the climate crisis, solving this issue doesn’t require some unprecedented technological revolution.

The solution is right in front of us: we need to cut bureaucracy, introduce an authentic “welcoming culture,” and accelerate talent mobility.

But instead of easing immigration, we’ve tangled the process in red tape, scaring off international workers and making domestic employers hesitant to hire internationally.?

Meanwhile, we’re stuck in endless debates about the dangers of immigration instead of taking meaningful steps to address the labor crisis.

That’s it for this month. Thanks for making it all the way to the end.?

See you again at the end of November. ??