Top Secret Predictions for Sports: 2021

All predictions are usually wrong so here are mine for sports in 2021!

RIP 2020, you pretty much sucked, so let’s talk about 2021. I will try to use my unique lens as CEO of Overtime, on making some predictions about what’s up with sports next year.

We experienced many highs and lows this year with the pause of live sports, then sports coming back and then subsequent and ongoing schedule changes. First of all, hats off to all commissioners, coaches and players who tried their best. We see you! For die-hard fans, consumption and general fandom was rarely lost. No virus can erase years and years of passionate cheering for your team. However, for mid-tier and casual fans, asking them to watch Wednesday 3x postponed NFL games or vastly shortened MLB seasons was a bit more challenging - there was so much else for them to watch, play and swipe elsewhere. Those are the fans about whom the business of sports should be concerned. Don’t believe me? After the 1994 MLB strike, I went from being a baseball fan to never watching another game in the next 25 years. Extreme? Maybe, but I experienced the disconnect that’s possible and it’s real. If there’s a break and you lose fans, they may not come back. 

So, like a fast break on a zoom call (that intentionally makes no sense btw), here are my predictions for 2021:

Sports leagues and teams will accelerate the push to build 1:1 relationships with fans

The world is moving towards Direct to Consumer. From Disney to Nike, everyone wants to connect directly with their audience to own that relationship and more importantly, the consumer data. Sports rights will still be sold to the highest bidder but if you look beyond the big game, you will see starting at the edges and moving towards the middle, leagues and teams holding on to what they can to go DTC.

Sports broadcasters will react by looking to become rights creators 

We don’t live in a world where the NFL or NBA can one day announce that all games are only available directly from the league, but when it happens, it will be the result of years of incremental change. As rights holders look to cut out broadcasters long term, the opposite will start to happen as well - broadcasters will look to become rights holders and rights creators. Whether it’s working with celebrities to create one-off sports events or building sports-related franchises like “American Ninja Warrior,” networks will look for ways to de-risk and own sports IP. Every rights deal and new product in sports will start to retain more rights for the IP holder, impacting all third parties from retailers of physical goods to broadcasters of other people’s content. If they don’t do this, some app will spend $50mm on a celebrity boxing match that outdraws major networks.

Esports will continue to see validation of creative content and influencers over competitive play

Although young people are consumed by playing video games, streaming continues to outpace viewership of competitive esports in the U.S. Publishers who have invested tens of millions of dollars in competitive gaming, because they believe that esports are the new sport, will become tired of losses and small revenue streams and move on. Second and third-tier teams will come and go as streamers ask for ridiculous amounts of money that can never be profitable. New teams that are content first, directly built by the players, will grow and publishers who decide to open source leagues and competition without the maniacal control that currently exists will see a major upside. Esports is a “check the box” for many in professional sports leagues and yet long term the rewards will be reaped by those who build bottoms up, not top down. In other words, bet on the streamer not the check the box pro sports team owner.

Sports betting will become more mainstream 

Sports betting continues to be fairly binary - you are either into it and all the +200 or -200 makes sense or you’re not. No amount of direct marketing will change that. In order to become more mainstream, it will take the intersection of betting and popular culture to bring a new wave of people into the fold by making the industry more digestible to understand. For example, more people probably learned about a parlay from watching the film “Uncut Gems” than from all the advertisements combined. Who will become the betting YouTuber? Should I finally launch my channel?

Shoppable video and declining TV ratings will push brand marketers in new direction 

For years, people could only dream of two-way video communication that was as simple as making a phone call. Today that is part of our lives at the office, classroom or around the house. In that same vein, shoppable video will completely change the game for creators and marketers alike as the new battlefield will be based on engagement versus attention. Brand marketers will now have to compete with hundreds, if not thousands, of new voices in and around commercial environments. As a result, the amount of money invested in pure reach vehicles like Broadcast and Cable TV (and especially around live sports) will plateau as the world normalizes in a post-Covid 19 era. We think that more than 50% of every incremental dollar invested by brands starting as early as “Back-to-School” in the Fall of 2021 will be required to be spent with platforms that have 1) direct engagement with their audiences, 2) ability to leverage two-way communication like DM and 3) execute against shoppable video that benefits brands and creators. Yes we all have Zoom fatigue but the connected video future is here (look at your Nest doorbell) and as a result it will even influence advertising and I am not bullish on mass spending on just pure audience aggregation numbers in the long term. Remember an audience passively consumes, while a community engages with each other. 

Fans will continue to engage directly with their favorite athletes

In terms of social media, the genie will never go back into the bottle. Now that you can follow and engage with your favorite players, see behind the scenes and be a part of their lives, no one will ever want to go back. Will 2021 be the year that teams realize their players’ Instagram accounts might be more valuable than in-venue signage or RSN audiences? I don’t know, but I believe eventually, player value will be recognized - what they can do with a ball along with their personal broadcast channels. Maybe the 2021 draft will discuss a players’ wingspan, their vertical, their time in the 40 AND their engagement rate on Instagram or Twitter or TikTok. If I were in charge, that’s what I would be thinking about.

As someone who serves 45 million Gen Z and Millennial sports fans, works with pro and next-generation athletes and creates and distributes sports content, this is where I see sports going. Admittedly, I am biased by what Overtime does, and I am biased because I’ve always been a power to the people kind of guy. But directionally, I am pretty confident that I am right. Finally, the only real prediction that I want to see is that it’s time for all of us to experience some joy! So, to every athlete, coach, parent and fan, I hope 2021 brings you happiness and an opportunity to get out on the field or court or to cheer for a loved one or favorite athlete. There’s really nothing like it!