- Japan's Risky exist from negative rates
- Can China keep a lid on the housing crisis?
- European Laggard
- Will the American consumer capitulate?
- Can India live up to its promise?
- The United State vs itself. The political system is more dysfunctional in the U.S. The presidential election will deepened the country's political division. The prospect of a Trump victory will weaken America's position on the global stage as Republican lawmakers take up his foreign policy positions and U.S. allies and adversaries hedge against his likely policies.
- Middle East on the brink. The fighting in Gaza will expand in 2024.
- Axis of rogues (and America's dangerous friends) Russia, North Korea, and Iran will boost one another's capabilities and act in increasingly coordinated and disruptive ways.
- Partitioned Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains a historic failure. This year will be an inflection point in the war - and if Ukraine doesn't solve its manpower problems, increase weapons production, and set a realistic military strategy soon, its territorial losses could prove permanent and may well expand.
- Ungoverned AI. Tech companies remain largely unconstrained, and for more powerful AI models and tools spread beyond the control of governments.
- No China Recovery. ...
- The fight for critical minerals. In 2024, governments around the world will take protectionist measures that disrupt the flow of the critical minerals needed for advanced large-scale technological progress.
- The global inflation shock that began in 2021 will continue to exert an economic and political drag in 2024.
- El Nino The extreme weather events will trigger food insecurity, increase water stress, disrupt logistics, spread disease, and foment migration and political instability.
- Risky Business Companies caught in the political and legal cross fire will face higher costs and confusion over their communications strategies.
MBA Graduate
1 年El Nino - That's a good one