Top Nine Business Risk Predictions of 2024

Predictions are educated assumptions about what the future may hold. They serve as a roadmap, helping us to anticipate potential risks and seize opportunities effectively.

Undeniably, 2023 was a tumultuous year marked by various disruptions. The landscape of business risks was reshaped by the rise of audacious and emergent ransomware groups, cyberattacks, and geopolitical crises. Geopolitical elements significantly influenced global trade and supply chains. Furthermore, cyber influence operations emerged as a significant trend for the year.

I made fourteen significant predictions for 2023. As the year unfolded, all these predictions came to fruition. To assess the accuracy of my predictions, I issued a scorecard in July for the first eight predictions and the remaining six predictions were reviewed in the December edition. Despite the global events that shaped the threat landscape, the relevance of my predictions persisted throughout the year.

My 2024 predictions will center on persistent and emerging trends that could pose substantial business risks, disrupt social life, and inflict damage on national economies.

My 2024 predictions will center on persistent and emerging trends that could pose substantial business risks, disrupt social life, and inflict damage on national economies. It is crucial for businesses to stay informed about these trends and adopt proactive strategies to mitigate them by implementing appropriate cybersecurity measures and risk reduction controls. Neglecting to do so could result in significant threats and repercussions.

1. Ransomware Gangs Joint Venture: The proliferation of ransomware gangs, which became a mainstream trend in 2023, is expected to continue its upward trend. However, the standout feature for 2024 will be the formation of joint ventures among these gangs. Various groups will pool their techniques, tactics, and expertise to create a powerful alliance aimed at large corporations. This collaborative model could lead to organizations being compromised by multiple gangs in quick succession.
2. Increased Government Regulation of Emerging Technologies and Competitive Resources: Globally, governments are expected to ramp up regulations on AI and other emerging technologies like quantum computing and robotics, as these technologies are increasingly shaping global economic and military power. The regulatory focus will be twofold: promoting responsible development and use of impactful technologies and tightening restrictions on offshore sales or transfers of these technologies. Additionally, resources that provide economic leverage, such as rare earth minerals, semiconductor chips, and agricultural products, will face increased restrictions.
3. AI to Accelerate Business Risk: As the adoption of AI becomes more widespread, it is anticipated that there will be a proportional rise in associated business risks. These risks include data privacy concerns, security breaches, and challenges with regulatory compliance. With AI systems increasingly driving decision-making processes, there is a potential for these systems to make decisions based on biased or incomplete data, leading to potentially costly errors. Additionally, we can expect an uptick in AI-related litigation and insurance premiums.?
4. Supply Chain Disruptions: Supply chain disruptions are projected to persist as a major business risk. As more governments make policies to protect local markets and restrict exportation, businesses will face resource constraints, escalating costs, and sustainability challenges. Geopolitical crises and conflicts would further disrupt supply chains. Additionally, cyberattacks are expected to intensify these disruptions, as threat actors strategically target major suppliers of critical services and infrastructure.?
5. Global Adoption of Deglobalization: There will be a significant shift towards onshoring and nearshoring as nations increasingly adopt deglobalization strategies. The fissures in global trade and the rise of interest-based economic and regional alliances are expected to prompt governments to stimulate their local economies.
6. Explosion of Influence Operations: Influence operations are expected to significantly impact not only the US election but also other democracies worldwide. These operations, which involve the use of disinformation and social media amplification tactics by foreign countries, will play a pivotal role in shaping global politics. As verifying the authenticity of information becomes increasingly challenging, influence operations will extend into the business realm. Organizations will compete to control information dissemination, further intensifying the impact of these operations.
7. Cybersecurity AI - The War of Smart Machines: AI is set to play a pivotal role in cybersecurity tools in 2024. These AI-enhanced tools will be designed to adapt swiftly to the evolving threat landscape, matching the pace at which attacks are launched. Moreover, we can expect to see an increase in the use of AI tools by threat actors, leading to a fierce battle of intelligent machines.?
8. AI-Engineered Social Unrest: As AI models become increasingly sophisticated, they are expected to play a more significant role in shaping public opinion, spreading misinformation, and potentially inciting conflict, leading to social unrest. The use of deepfake content to amplify false or specific narratives is anticipated to rise, while AI-powered bots would be used to distribute divisive content or fake news on social media platforms, intensifying divisions.
9. Man-Machine Workforce: The future of work will be characterized by a shift towards a symbiotic relationship between humans and machines. As the use of AI becomes more prevalent, the emphasis will be on retraining and enhancing skills, rather than large-scale layoffs due to AI integration. Automation will continue to play a significant role in cost reduction and productivity enhancement, while simultaneously opening new job opportunities across various sectors.

Enter the New Year with the Right Strategies

While these predictions are based on research, data, and trend analysis, they are inherently speculative and subject to factors that could alter the trajectory of business risks and the threat landscape. It is crucial for businesses to evaluate these predictions within their specific context. For example, companies operating in a complex geopolitical environment may find predictions about supply chain disruptions or deglobalization policies particularly relevant to their business sustainability.

As organizations brace for an uncertain year filled with numerous predictions, here are some considerations for their strategic planning to adapt to the challenges and opportunities the year presents.

1. Investments in intelligence solutions and alliances will prove beneficial for businesses. By sharing intelligence in a timely manner, the impact of attacks from ransomware gangs can be mitigated. Emphasis should be placed on investing in people, processes, and technologies that not only provide adequate protection but also bolster business resilience.
2. Organizations should place a high priority on regulatory compliance. Instead of viewing compliance as a burden, it should be seen as a core business strategy that can help reduce costs, increase productivity, and attract new business opportunities and government incentives.
3. The responsible adoption of AI is crucial to prevent unforeseen repercussions. As companies increasingly leverage AI to gain a competitive edge, they must prioritize their social and ethical responsibilities.
4. Companies with operations in foreign countries or those heavily dependent on offshore supply chains should consider diversifying their strategies. Exploring alternative options is crucial for ensuring business sustainability and reducing costs.
5. Governments are encouraged to stimulate local supply chains by offering tax incentives and rewards to companies that source locally. In response to the impact of deglobalization, businesses should contemplate onshoring as a strategic move to bolster their resilience.?
6. Protecting elections and democratic institutions is a shared responsibility that extends beyond the government. A conducive environment that fosters growth and peace is essential for businesses to thrive. Therefore, significant investments should be directed towards identifying, detecting, and preventing foreign influence operations.
7. Traditional cybersecurity solutions are becoming less effective in defending against cyberattacks powered by AI. The focus should now shift towards investing in cybersecurity tools and technologies enhanced by AI to protect businesses.
8. Governments are urged to pay special attention to the role of AI in causing social disruptions. In addition to implementing regulations, AI should be utilized to combat the threats posed by disinformation and deepfakes. It will be necessary for governments to collaborate with technology companies to develop proactive solutions to mitigate these significant threats.
9. The evolving workplace should prioritize human-centric approaches. While the impact of automation on jobs is inevitable, it is essential for decision-makers to consider the effects of their automation strategies on their most valuable resource - their employees. Investment in reskilling and upskilling is crucial to strike a balance in this new era of work.

These predictions are given to provide organizations with a better understanding of potential risk areas, thereby enabling them to prioritize appropriate controls to mitigate these risks. By following the recommendations, organizations will be better equipped to navigate potential business risks in 2024.

These predictions are given to provide organizations with a better understanding of potential risk areas, thereby enabling them to prioritize appropriate controls to mitigate these risks.