Top ISPs 4Q & FY 2024 Results

The results are in for Top ISPs, and the results are ... different. For the purposes of this post, I'll be referring to Top ISPs, based on subscriber counts, a grouping which consists of Comcast, Charter, AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

AT&T tout's 20 consecutive quarters of +200K Fiber Net Adds

For the first time in what has felt like forever (since 2021?), someone not named Verizon or T-Mobile had meaningful subscriber growth. AT&T gained 94K net adds in Q4, its best net adds growth since .... to be honest, I only tracked data back to 4Q 2021. Now to be fair to AT&T, their focus has largely been on Fiber expansion and penetration, and that focus is paying off. 4Q 2024 was AT&T's 20th consecutive Quarter of over 200K Fiber Net Adds, a trend they plan to continue into 2025. Not only will Fiber continue to be a focus in 2025, but with only 40% of AT&T Fiber customers bundling with AT&T Wireless, AT&T plans to focus on deeper penetration and promotion of a converged Fiber + Wireless offer. AT&T's Internet Air FWA product finished strong in 2024 with 158K Net Adds in 4Q, its best Quarter of the year, totaling over 500K Net Adds in 2024.

T-Mobile leads the industry in 4Q and FY 2024 Net Subscriber Adds

Speaking of FWA, T-Mobile did its thing -- adding 428K Net Adds in 4Q and totaling over 1.6MM Net Adds in 2024, both industry bests. For those of you keeping track, T-Mobile finished 2024 with 6.4MM Subscribers. Over the years T-Mobile often mentioned a target of 7-8MM US Subscribers as somewhat of an addressable market. Another year of over 1MM Net Adds would put T-Mobile in that range, so it will be interesting to see how T-Mobile navigates continued growth in three areas: (1) continued share taking, (2) selling into their existing postpaid wireless base, and (3) overall US market growth. T-Mobile is in a unique position to excel in all three areas if they can continue to provide exceptional service at an exceptionally competitive price, along with most importantly enough network capacity.

Verizon is Mr. Consistent delivering another strong Net Adds Quarter

Over the last 10 Quarters Verizon has been nothing but consistent in terms of Subscriber growth averaging 35K Net Broadband Adds and 375K Net FWA Adds in that timeframe. So it should be no surprise to see Verizon deliver another consistent quarter, adding 36K Net Broadband Subscribers, it's best of the year, and 372K Net FWA Subscribers in 4Q 2024. In 2025 Verizon has a similar focus on promoting their converged offer of Wireless and Broadband. Unlike other Top ISPs, Verizon spent meaningful time in their Earnings Call outlining their implementation of AI (which I will outline in a separate post). With an ever-changing broadband environment and the rapid adoption and implementation of AI, it will be interesting to see what competitive edge Verizon gains.

Spectrum's 4Q subscriber losses aren't indicative of 2025 potential

Charter had it's toughest earnings call of the year in terms of subscribers, shedding 177K Net Subscribers in 4Q. This capped off an even tougher year losing over 500K Net Subscribers in 2024 overall. Despite this there was a feeling of optimism on Charter's earnings call. A few factors fueling this optimism were (1) Spectrum Mobile which is one of the fastest growing mobile programs in the country, adding over 2MM Mobile lines in 2024; (2) a growing addressable market, with the most rural expansion since the 1980s, and (3) frankly, the one-time impact of ACP ending, which Charter estimated to represent over 80% of their 4Q Net Subscriber Losses. Charter has a very optimistic outlook for 2025; with over 57MM serviceable passings they've only penetrated ~52% of their addressable market, and combined with their service capabilities, Charter is poised for growth.

Comcast doesn't waiver on strategy, delivering record-breaking financials

Comcast's CEO, Dave Roberts touted Comcast's "best financial performance in our company’s 60-year history." Comcast has focused on doubling down on deeper penetration of the subscriber base to yield higher ARPU. This has largely been Comcast's strategy for the past two years and it appears will be a main focus again in 2025. When it results in record breaking financial performance, it's hard to argue, but it leaves much to be desired for those of us indirect resellers. As Jason Armstrong, Comcast's CFO highlighted, 2024 was "potentially the most competitive environment we’ve faced in broadband" which is not expected to change in 2025. The focus will remain selling into the subscriber base with converged offers of Xfinity Mobile and placing new and existing broadband customers in more premium tiered packages.

Putting the Pieces Together

Overall, there are a ton of takeaways from 4Q 2024 earnings and 2025 outlook. To oversimplify in three bullets:

• FWA providers are leading the way in subscriber growth and based on what we've seen in the industry over the last two years there's no reason for that to change until we see them begin maxing out on their capacity.
• All of the Top ISPs are focused on market expansion in one way or another, that being said, Spectrum has made it a core component of growth in 2025. I would expect growth and deeper penetration of serviceable households to be a benefit throughout the year.
• Comcast is largely focused on internal growth, deepening ARPU and upselling existing customers. As FWA providers continue to steal market share, Comcast will need to stay focused on their existing base to ensure their financial wins outpace subscriber losses.

Any way you slice it, there is a ton of opportunity in the broadband market. If you're looking to monetize leads or want to explore opportunities for your business, let's chat. In the meantime, happy selling!