Top Dog: Handicapping the Puppy Bowl

By Breanna Wright and Major Bottoms Jr ?

One of the biggest challenges facing organizations today is managing the large amount of data they have collected. A prime example of this is the historical lines set by handicappers for the Puppy Bowl.??

The Puppy Bowl is an annual sporting event that coincides with the Super Bowl. Hosted by Animal Planet, the Puppy Bowl features two teams of puppies, Team Ruff and Team Fluff, competing for the coveted Lombarky Trophy. The rules are basic: to score, a puppy must take a toy into either end zone of the football field.??

Historically, odds on the Puppy Bowl have largely been based on the idea that puppies are unpredictable bundles of energy that act without rhyme or reason. Here at Endava, we believe that the behavior of these elite athletes can be predicted using the multitude of data that has been collected over the last 19 years. In honor of Puppy Bowl XX, we are handling this sporting event with the seriousness it deserves by highlighting the data we would use to handicap the Puppy Bowl.??

Odds makers for the Puppy Bowl typically have lines open on the winning team, the team of the MVP and which half of the alphabet the MVP name falls within. However, in 2015, major changes aimed at legitimizing the sport were implemented. Starting with that year’s Puppy Bowl, Animal Planet introduced two teams (Ruff and Fluff), an official player uniform and a fan-voted MVP. Due to these changes, the data that we would use to handicap the winning team and the MVP betting lines will contain different variables.?

To ensure the most accurate predictions, in our analyses we would account for the elements of the game that have varied over the years that may have impacted the outcome of the game. We would also control for the impact of game interruptions (i.e., the notorious streakers of Puppy Bowl V and XII), the number of puppies competing, “rufferee” bias, rule changes, introduction of teams and variation in uniform color.?

Winning team?

Any dog owner, veterinarian or animal behaviorist will tell you that there are significant behavioral and physical differences between dog breeds. To handicap the winning team of the Puppy Bowl, we would rely on the innate differences that exist between players and team chemistry.?

To measure the impact that size and breed have on player performance, we would utilize data collected from all prior Puppy Bowls and incorporate information from reputable canine researchers to determine each player's athletic abilities, broken down into projected strengths, weaknesses and temperaments.??

When Tom Brady left the New England Patriots, the football world learned firsthand the impact that one individual player's strengths and weaknesses can have on team success and the performance of other team members. To account for the potential impact of a once-in-a-lifetime talent, we would examine the distribution of athletic abilities per team to determine team chemistry. We would rely heavily upon past Puppy Bowls to determine which athletic abilities and breeds best complement and elevate one another.??

MVP??

A player's probability of being voted MVP would be based on their athletic abilities and what we call their “Aww Factor.” The Aww Factor uses data collected from past MVPs (starting with Puppy Bowl XI) and the most “pup-ular” dog voting brackets to determine the public’s preferences. To account for shifts in breed popularity over time, we would use historical data on breed popularity and desired traits.?

To calculate the Aww Factor, we would consider numerous physical attributes and player names. The physical attributes considered include coat, eye color(s), fur color(s), unique fur markings/patterns, breed, disability and size. Dogs’ names are broken down into the following categories: food, sports, human, location, ironic and celebrity.?

Once the probability of each player being voted MVP is calculated, we would use this data to determine which team and which half of the alphabet has the highest likelihood of having a player selected as MVP.??

Who we are?

This Sunday, both Puppy Bowl XX and Super Bowl LVIII will crown their winners—generating tons of data before and after the big events.??

If you’re looking to make sense of your sports and betting data—and build a competitive advantage with it—we’re here to help. Reach out to Endava today to see how you can utilize data to create a sound foundation for lasting success.?