Top 5 Power Forwards: 2019 NBA Draft

NBA DRAFT 2019 SCOUTING REPORTS

POWER FORWARDS

POSITION RANK: 1

Name: Zion Williamson

Height: 6 foot 7

Weight: 285 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 10

Team: Duke

Stats: 22.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.8 BPG, 68% FG, 33.8% 3FG, 64% FT

Strengths: Attacking the Basket, Defense, Athletic Ability

As you may know, Zion is the #1 ranked recruit coming out of college this year and it is pretty much undisputed. He is a 285-pound man-child with freakish athleticism and guard skills in the open floor; he is truly a spectacle to watch when he’s on the court. In transition, he was unstoppable at the college level, and I anticipate he’ll be equally as dominant in the NBA. His strength, speed, size and vertical leap combination makes every fast break a potential highlight. His athletic ability is truly outstanding, and he’s only 19 years old. In the half-court, Zion attacks the basket with force. At the college level there weren’t many players who had the ability to stay in front of him, and Zion usually got pretty much any shot he wanted within 8-10 feet of the basket. He is a very skilled finisher with either hand, although he tends to be very left hand dominant. His verticality attacking the basket allows him to extend above the outstretched contest of the defense. His ability as a power forward to attack the basket with a series of dribble moves from the perimeter at such high speeds will be a problem for slower forwards in the NBA. Zion especially likes to attack left with an in and out dribble, or an inside plant and a spin dribble to the outside before rising up and finishing. Defensively, Zion is even more impressive in my opinion. His anticipation as a team defender is already elite. He does a great job reading plays and his instincts combined with his athleticism makes him very effective in the passing lanes by deflecting passes, and overall just disrupting offensive flows. He excels especially as a weak side defender. Zion is so quick and explosive on the weak side of the ball that he can virtually be in two places at once. His recovery time from defending on the perimeter to protecting the paint is so fast that he has an opportunity to block almost every shot in his vicinity. When you think you’re open under the basket for a layup, here comes Zion. When you think you have an uncontested three in the corner, here comes a Zion, 45 inches off the ground with his outstretched 6 foot 10 wingspan swatting your shot into the rafters. His impact on defense is incredible, which leads me to believe that even if he never develops a jumpshot, he can still be a star in this league- purely based on defensive capability and his skill attacking the basket. He has untapped potential, and it would be foolish for the Pelicans to pass on him at #1.

Needs Improvements: Outside Shooting, Free Throw Shooting

Although the hype around Zion is unlike any player we’ve seen since LeBron James, he still has plenty of room to grow. His outside shot is not very good. His percentages aren’t awful, but his form isn’t the most pleasant thing to look at on tape, nothing looks fluid. Also, as the undeniable first overall selection, you’d want to see more consistency from the outside shot considering he’s entering an era of basketball that is three-point focused. I think that just like LeBron, he’ll develop a jump shot. Once he does, he will be an unstoppable force on the offensive end. I’d also like to see his Free Throw percentage improve once he gets the the NBA. He’ll most likely be on the floor during crucial moments during the game, so I wouldn’t want him to be a liability as a Free Throw shooter down the stretch. Also, considering his style of play, it’s very likely that he’ll be attacking the rim and heading to the free throw line 6-8 times per game. If I’m the team drafting him, I am adamant that he works on his free throws, and shoots at least 70% in his rookie campaign. Not only would that help his team win games, but it would also improve his overall numbers as a player.

Floor: Blake Griffin

Ceiling: Charles Barkley/LeBron James

Best Fit: New Orleans Pelicans

Telling Analytic: BPM (20.0) Among Many Others

Analytically, Zion’s production levels are off the charts. There were about 4-5 statistics that stood out to me as ‘far beyond’ what a standard metric should look like for an elite prospect. The one I chose to focus on however, was BPM, box score plus minus. Box score plus minus analyzes a player’s overall impact on the game based on his statistics and gives a value to a player based on the +/- he would yield on the floor in comparison to an average player. With the average being 0, some players would yield negative scores meaning they are below average, and the exceptional players would yield a BPM of anywhere between 7-10. The highest BPM in the league this year was James Harden at 11.7, and Giannis 2nd at 10.8. No other player hit double digits, which illustrates just how good the average player in the NBA is. College is undoubtedly different, and the top prospects are far more talented than the average division 1 player, however, Zion’s BPM score of 20 is so far ahead of everyone that it makes even this stat impressive at the college level. To think that Zion is 20 points better than an average prospect, measuring both offense and defense, exemplifies his dominance on both ends of the floor. That stat is mind-blowing, and I didn’t even mention his PER of over 40 or his eFG% of over 70%.

Overall: I am very high on Zion as you can tell by my report, but that shouldn’t be news to any basketball fan. He has the potential to be a superstar in this league. He’s been gifted incredible athletic ability, and has the attitude of a winner. His character has never been called into question, and his desire to be great reminds me a lot of LeBron James at this age. I still have two concerns about Zion. First, and most importantly, he has to stay healthy.  With 285 pounds of force landing from a 40+ inch jump every time he goes to make a highlight block or dunk, his knees and ankles may start to cause him issues. I anticipate him shedding 10-15 pounds once he gets to the NBA in order to sustain peak performance for a longer duration of time. My second concern is his jump shot, and only because of how integral shooting is in the modern NBA. It’s not impossible to develop a jump shot however, so as long as he is dedicated to putting the time in to improve, he’ll be fine. After all, you can learn to become a better shooter, but you can’t learn to become an athletic specimen. That’s what makes Zion so exciting as a prospect.

POSITION RANK: 2

Name: Rui Hachimura

Height: 6 foot 8

Weight: 225 lbs

Wingspan: 7 foot 2

Team: Gonzaga

Stats: 19.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 59.1% FG, 41.7% 3FG, 73.9% FT

Strengths: Length, Efficiency, Shot selection

I’ve been watching Rui Hachimura since his sophomore campaign at Gonzaga and I was so excited to see what he would do in the 2018-19 season. He did not disappoint by any means. The 2018-19 WCC player of the year had a tremendous season for the Zags and showed NBA scouts why he should be in the conversation to be a top 10 pick. The first thing that caught my eye about Rui is his length. He’s 6 foot 8 which is slightly undersized at the 4, but his 7 foot 2 wingspan and athleticism make up for his lack of height. He could still use some improvement using his length to his advantage more, but regardless, he is able to cover more ground on defense by disrupting shots and deflecting passes. Offensively, Rui uses his length very well to finish up & over defenders around the basket. Rui can score a variety of ways from 8-10 feet away and is comfortable shooting a pull up jumper, floater, push shot, baby hook, or even taking it strong right to the basket and finishing with either hand. Rui’s shot selection is heavily focused in the paint, which is why he has such a high FG%. On the rare occasion that he does shoot the three, it’s usually a catch & shoot opportunity, and he shoots it at over 40%. Rui has the ability to pick his spots on the floor, his size and length allows him to really be a factor in the inside/mid-range game in the half court. Rui’s speed for his size is also very impressive and he loves to run the floor. In transition, Rui is a force attacking the basket.

Needs Improvements: Playmaking, Creating his own shot

Over his entire career at Gonzaga you didn’t see Rui attempt to become a playmaker at all. Averaging only 1.5 assists per game, Rui’s clear main focus in college was to put the ball in the net and rebound. Rui will not be able to be as dominant in the NBA, and will likely have to adjust his game to a more team-oriented approach; that entails passing the ball and creating a play. Rui is so good in the paint, I believe that defense's will begin to collapse to stop him which should leave plenty of opportunity for him to find open shooters along the perimeter for good looks from three. Beyond playmaking, Rui also struggles with creating his own shot. Gonzaga constantly has strong guard play at the collegiate level so Rui never really had to develop the skills to create his own scoring opportunity. At the NBA level, he’ll have trouble getting open looks and scoring the ball if he isn’t able to create his own shot off the dribble.  

Floor: Al Farouq-Aminu/ Jerami Grant

Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Best Fit: Minnesota Timberwolves

Telling Analytic: Improvement across the board

Although there are some analytics like TS% and eFG% that stood out to me for Rui, I think it would be more valuable to recognize his complete improvement across the board. From freshman year until now, Rui has seen drastic improvements in all major statistical categories. PER, eFG, TS%, FTr, AST%, TOV%, Win Shares- literally every advanced metric you can think of has improved year after year from Rui. That shows me a couple of things. First, that Rui is trending in the right direction and continues to get better and better. Second, Rui’s will to be a great player is strong. He is clearly determined to be a contributor in the NBA and I love that the stats show that.

Overall: Rui is definitely one of the most intriguing prospects of this year’s NBA draft. He has so much potential, but still such a long road ahead of him to be a contributor in the NBA. Still, I’ve seen Rui’s progression throughout his year’s at Gonzaga, and his drive to be great is remarkable- I don’t see that fire dying out any time soon. He has great determination, and a fascinating back story (seriously, look it up if you have some time). Rui is one of my favourite prospects this year, and in my opinion he is the second best power forward in this draft.

POSITION RANK: 3

Name: Sekou Doumbouya

Height: 6 foot 9

Weight: 230 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 11

Team: Limoges CSP

Stats: 7.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 48.2% FG, 34.3% 3FG, 79.3% FT (All in 19 MPG)

Strengths: Length, Transition play, Ball Handling

Initially, Doumbouya was ranked higher on my board- but after some impressive play by Rui and some lackluster stats by SD, he fell a few spots lower than anticipated. Still, Doumbouya is capable of becoming a very good player in the NBA. Physically, SD was gifted with a long & athletic frame- something that all NBA teams love to see in power forwards, especially after the emergence of Pascal Siakam. He runs the floor very well for a forward and is a great finisher in transition. His ball-handling is actually very advanced for his age & size. He reminds of Siakam both in the open floor and in the half court because of his ability to break defenders down with his dribble and blow by them with speed & quickness. Still, SD is a very raw prospect and will take a couple of years at least to refine his game if he wants to be considered in the same class as Siakam. He has all the tools to do so, and the potential to be great- so his progression is almost entirely reliant on his work ethic. I hope that SD is put in a situation with good coaching and a smaller bench role to begin his career so he is able to gradually develop into a solid NBA player. Situational factors will remain very important to his success.

Needs Improvements: Outside shot, Consistency

SD only played 19 minutes per game and that could be a big reason why his per game statistics aren’t the most impressive, however, it could also be in part to his inconsistency on the offensive end. Doumbouya is still young and sometimes is out of control, taking bad shots that are heavily contested. He will eventually mature and become smarter with the ball, but moving forward consistency is something he’ll have to improve on. His outside shot is also apart of that inconsistency as a player. SD will most likely be slotted as a stretch 4, in which case, he’ll need to possess the ability to shoot the ball from the outside. He shot it at just under 35% this year, which isn’t terrible, but if that number can creep closer to 40%, he will be a threat everywhere on the court. An outside shot would complete his game on the offensive end.

Floor: Jonathan Isaac

Ceiling: Pascal Siakam

Best Fit: Boston Celtics

Telling Analytic: Assist/Turnover Ratio (0.64)

Doumbouya is by no means a playmaker, but that doesn’t excuse him for having an Assist to Turnover ratio of below 1. This could be a product of a few things. The first being, he turns the ball over too much-which he does. Taking into account that he’s not even 20 years old yet playing against grown men, that’s not something that is overly concerning. He’ll just have to make sure that he takes care of the ball at the next level. Furthermore, he’s clearly not a playmaker. If Doumbouya wants to model his game after Pascal Siakam, he should watch some of his tape to see how good Siakam is at creating for his teammates. SD’s speed and ball handling abilities will allow him to slice deep into the defence, but in the NBA- bigs will collapse and most likely take away anything down low. This is where SD will need the recognition to kick the ball out too a shooter on the perimeter instead of forcing up a wild shot. Changes like this will not only help his playmaking numbers, but it will improve his overall IQ as a player.

Overall: Sekou is a raw prospect, and a lot of European prospects with sub-par stats are complete shots in the dark. You get guys like Porzingis who thrive, and you get guys like Dragan Bender who…do not. SD has all of the tools necessary to be an impact guy in the NBA. He’ll need to refine some of his fundamental skills and get smarter as a player and there will be a place on any NBA roster for Sekou Doumbouya. I project him to go in the middle of the first round.

POSITION RANK: 4

Name: Brandon Clarke

Height: 6 foot 8

Weight: 207 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 8

Team: Gonzaga

Stats: 16.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 3.2 BPG, 68.7% FG, 69.4% FT

Strengths: Defense, Athleticism, Efficiency

Brandon Clarke was the most efficient player in this draft class and his numbers show it. The third year transfer had an outstanding season on both ends of the floor for Gonzaga. Offensively, Clarke shot almost 70% from the field! Most of his attempts were dunks, layups, or shots within 7 feet, but the efficiency is still remarkable. Although he is only 6 foot 8, with a 6 foot 8 wingspan- his athleticism and explosiveness gives him the ability to elevate and maneuver shots over the defense. Defensively, Clarke is even more outstanding. He averaged 1.2 SPG and an incredible 3.2 BPG! Beyond that, Clarke’s explosiveness on the defensive end contests and alters plenty of shots in the paint, so his defensive impact cannot be measured only by blocks and steals. Incredibly, Clarke actually finished the 2018-19 college campaign with more blocks than missed field goals! That is a testament not only to Clarke’s efficiency, but his defensive influence on the court.

Needs Improvements: Shooting

Clarke rarely shot the ball anywhere outside of the paint, and took less than one three per game on average. That might have to change once he gets to the NBA. One dimensional players on offense can often be considered liabilities, and take away offensive opportunities from other players. Without an outside shot, Clarke will only be utilized as a screener in the pick and roll and an offensive rebounding specialist. Two important parts of the game, but a bit of an offensive liability- especially on the perimeter. Once Clarke develops a consistent jump shot, even if its just a mid-range, he will be a legitimate dual threat- even at the NBA level.

Floor: Jordan Bell

Ceiling: Montrezl Harrell/ Myles Turner

Best Fit: Utah Jazz

Telling Analytic: Offensive Rating (137.9)

Mostly because of his efficiency shooting the ball, Clarke’s offensive rating was a ridiculous 137.9! This could be in part to playing in a weak conference, but nonetheless, a metric this high is impressive. Clarke’s impact on the offensive end may not incorporate outside shooting, or many skills based shots, but it does encompass plenty of characteristics of winning basketball. High percentage looks at the basket, second chance opportunities, hustle plays, energy plays- all things that Clarke brings to the table. Those are traits that any team would love to have.

Overall: Overall, Clarke’s statistics are very impressive, but it could be a product of a weak conference and physically incapable defenders. Clarke is very athletic and efficient in the paint, but his tenacity and hustle are what make him so valuable. I believe that he has the opportunity to have an impact similar to Montrezl Harrell does in the NBA. High efficiency, high energy guy who brings it on both ends. I don’t necessarily believe Clarke will be a star, but he can most definitely make an impact.

POSITION RANK: 5

Name: PJ Washington

Height: 6 foot 8

Weight: 230 lbs

Wingspan: 7 foot 2 (and a half)

Team: Kentucky

Stats: 15.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 BPG, 52.2% FG, 42.3% 3FG, 66.3% FT

Strengths: Athleticism, All-Around Impact

PJ Washington showed great improvement from his freshman season to his sophomore campaign in almost every significant statistical category. PJ’s strength on offense stems mostly from his athleticism and strength at the collegiate level. Washington often overpowered defenders and was able to finish through contact consistently. He is also fairly quick for his size/position. Against slower, lumbering power forwards, Washington breaks his defenders down from the perimeter off the dribble, and is excellent finishing around the rim. Washington’s real strength in my opinion comes from his ability to make an overall impact. On the defensive end, Washington’s athleticism gives defenders trouble beating him off the dribble, and his strength allows him to bang down low with bigger forwards. Offensively, Washington is an underrated passer with high IQ. He makes correct reads, and does a great job attacking gaps in the defense. His three point shot improved by 19% from his freshman season to his sophomore season, and he now shoots over 40% from beyond the arc. Washington’s ability to stretch the floor will make his transition to the NBA a smooth one.

Needs Improvements: Outside Shooting, Defense

Even though he now shoots over 40% from 3, Washington still has room to improve his outside shot. As an NBA stretch 4, Washington will need to improve his shot on the move (footwork for a pick and pop, spacing along the perimeter, etc.). He also only shot about 2 three-point attempts per game, so I’d like to see him work on his shot in the offseason and maybe extend his range out to the NBA three. Defensively, I’d also like Washington to be more active forcing turnovers. For someone with such a large impact he has low block & steal numbers. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a poor defender, but it would be nice to see him improve in those categories in his NBA rookie campaign to show teams what he’s capable of.

Floor: Carl Landry

Ceiling: Paul Millsap/Aaron Gordon

Best Fit: Utah Jazz

Telling Analytic: Defensive Rating (93.9)

Washington’s offensive game was impressive, but his defense is actually what separates him from other power forwards. Even though he is undersized at 6 foot 8, his athleticism and strength allows him to have an impact both in the paint, and along the perimeter. He has the ability to alter/block shots down low, and contest shots from the outside- something most power forwards struggle to do. A defensive rating of 93.9 is very solid, and shows a 7.1-point improvement from his freshman campaign. Hopefully his defensive success will continue in the NBA and he can establish himself as a two-way threat early in his career.

Overall: Washington comes from an NCAA powerhouse and has shown tremendous improvement from his freshman to sophomore campaign. He’s learned from one of the best coaches in the country, played with and against some of the best players, yet he’s always seemed to be one of the most dominant guys on the floor. Washington can bring a lot to the table as a prospect, and if he can continue to knock down shots consistently, I don’t see why he can’t make an impact at the next level. He’ll be a mid-late first round selection.