Top 5 Point Guards: 2019 NBA Draft

NBA DRAFT 2019 SCOUTING REPORTS

POINT GUARDS

POSITION RANK: 1

Name: Ja Morant

Height: 6 foot 3

Weight: 170 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 7

Team: Murray State

Stats: 24.5 PPG, 10.0 APG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 50% FG, 36% 3FG, 81% FT, 5.2 TOV

Strengths: Explosiveness, Transition Play, Passing

Ja is the most explosive guard in this draft class. With an excellent handle and fantastic acceleration in transition, Ja will be a handful for opposing guards even at the NBA level. Ja shot the ball very well last year and even posted a triple-double in the tournament, displaying that he can in fact play with the most elite talent despite his weak conference. One thing that impressed me most about Ja is his ability to find the open man even at extremely high speeds. Whether it’s through his initial attack in the half-court or in transition, Ja has a knack for finding open shooters on the perimeter, or a big slipping behind the defense. This skill will help him translate into a more effective NBA point guard.

Needs Improvement: Shooting, Finishing, Size, Effort

Although Ja shot the ball well last year, his shot selection worries me. Throughout the season I found him taking erratic shots in the half court, or poor shot attempts when the shot clock was running down. That could be a product of his team, or even a little bit of immaturity, but Ja will definitely have to learn how to refine his shot selection. His finishing around the rim is also a little inconsistent for my liking. Within his conference, Ja was able to finish with ease around and above the rim. Against better competition, when more of his shots were heavily contested, Ja was having trouble finishing with contact. The bodies are bigger, and more athletic in the NBA, he’ll have to adjust at the next level. He’s also rather thin for 6’ 3, at only 170 lbs. His 6’ 7 wingspan definitely helps his game on both ends, however, he will get bullied in the NBA by bigger guards if he does not bulk up a little. That will come with time, he’s not even 21 yet. Unfortunately, one thing that can be seen on film is how disengaged Morant can be at times on the defensive end. I believe that this is primarily because of his offensive workload, and this is something that will change when he gets to the NBA. When Morant gives 100% effort, he is actually a very strong defender.

Floor: Dennis Smith Jr

Ceiling: Russell Westbrook

Telling Analytic: Defensive Rating (95.8)

Ja is known for his incredible speed, explosiveness in transition, and ability to score, however his Defense is what can truly set him apart from other offensively gifted guards. His 6 foot 7 wingspan and long frame definitely helps dominate smaller guards defensively. He is very good as a 1 on 1 defender when he gives 100% effort, and is active as an off ball defender- averaging almost 2 steals per game. Ja’s defensive rating last year was 95.8 which is unbelievable. To compare, Rudy Gobert, last years Defensive Player of the Year in the NBA had a defensive rating of 100 (The lower the better for defensive rating). This could be a product of a weak conference, but the number is so low that it’s hard to disregard it as one of Murray’s hidden strengths. Ja could be an elite two-way guard in the NBA, and what team wouldn’t want that?

Best Fit: Memphis Grizzlies

Overall: I think that Ja will be a very good pro. He has a surplus of offensive skills, speed, IQ, and great length- all the tools necessary to succeed in the NBA as a point guard. Like all prospects, there are obviously some areas that need improvement, but Ja is a confident young man who really does not have any boundaries on his potential stardom in the NBA. He should most definitely be a top 2 pick in the 2019-2020 draft.

POSITION RANK: 2

Name: Darius Garland

Height: 6 foot 3

Weight: 175 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 5

Team: Vanderbilt

Stats: 16.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 3 TOV, 53.7% FG, 47.8% 3P, 75% FT

Strengths: Shooting, IQ, Finishing

Coming to Vanderbilt, Garland was one of the most highly anticipated prospects in the country. He was a high school phenom who showed a tremendous amount of promise. Unfortunately, his freshman season was shortened to only 5 games due to injury. Still, Garland declared for the draft, and I would be shocked if he is not selected in the top 7.

Garland’s feel for the game makes it seem like he’s played in the NCAA for a few years already. He is so composed in the backcourt, poised, with a killer instinct at such a young age. Garland’s IQ for the game is very high, and he seems to consistently make the right read on the court. Garland can flat out score the ball. Inside, he is a crafty finisher who is consistent with both hands. If help steps up, his recognition is fantastic and he is able to consistently knock down an 8-10 foot floater/push shot over bigger defenders. From the outside he has limitless range, and can knock it down spotting up, off screens, or even off the dribble. He is a modern day NBA point guard, and he’ll translate nicely into the pro’s. 

Needs Improvement: Size, Defense, Multi-Dimensional?

Garland is quite small for the modern NBA in terms of his weight, and may get bullied by bigger guards, he’ll just need some time to put on some more muscle. Garland also lacks a bit on the defensive end. He has quite a high defensive rating on paper (the lower the better, so this isn’t good), and the film shows why. Either he gets outmuscled by bigger guards, or his rotations are slow. He doesn’t really make an impact at all on defence, so that is something that he will have to work on. The thing that I believe Garland will have to improve the most is his contribution to the game outside of scoring. There is no debate for whether Garland can score the ball or not, however, his rebounding ability or ability to facilitate are lacking. Picking a point guard in the top 10 usually means that team’s are looking for someone to run their offense and contribute more than just scoring. Garland averaged only 2.6 APG as Vanderbilt’s starting PG, and less than 4 RPG as well. If he wants to be an elite player in this league, he cannot be one dimensional. Similar players such as Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker have adapted their games to be more well-rounded, and I don’t doubt that Garland can do the same.

Floor: Jaryd Bayless

Ceiling: Damian Lillard

Telling Analytic: EFG (Effective Field Goal %) (63.9%)

A player’s EFG measures a player’s FG% with a higher value placed on taking 3-pointers since they are worth more. This stat can really distinguish who is an impactful scorer, from just the efficient. For example, someone who shoot’s more 3’s will obviously have a lower percentage than someone who always scores on the inside. The EFG% does a great job determining the scoring value of players who can shoot from the outside.

To put things into perspective, there were only 2 guards in the top 10 of EFG% in the NBA: Joe Harris, the 3-Point Champion (62.2%), and Stephen Curry, the best shooter ever (60.4%). In the 5 games that Garland did play this year, he had an EFG% of 63.9, absolutely remarkable. That would be the highest of any guard in the NBA, and 4th highest in the NBA overall.

Garland’s extremely high EFG% shows how efficient he really is on the offensive end. In the modern NBA where there is a heavy reliance on the outside shot, Garland will have an immediate impact wherever he ends up landing.

Best Fit: LA Lakers

Overall: I really like Garland’s game, and I think he will translate well to the pro’s. There are some glaring weaknesses however, and a lack of experience at the college level may affect his draft stock. Regardless, I believe that Garland’s shooting ability and high IQ will give him the tools necessary to become a very effective pro.

POSITION RANK: 3

Name: Coby White

Height: 6 foot 5

Weight: 185 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 5

Team: North Carolina

Stats: 16.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.1 SPG 42.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 80% FT

Strengths: Defense, Dynamic Scorer, Versatility

In my opinion, White’s biggest strength is his play on the defensive side of the ball. White’s size as a combo guard allows him to just dominate smaller PG’s. His rotations are almost always on time, and his anticipation earned him over 1 steal per game as a freshman. White also has a high defensive IQ, and can become a captain on the defensive end as he begins to mature as a player. White will most likely be a top 10 pick in large part to his defense.

Coby white made sure that his name was known last year making an impact in the ACC as a freshman. He was the only non-senior starter for UNC and led the team in APG (4.1), and was 2nd in PPG (16.1) and SPG (1.1). White’s versatility on the offensive end is what could really separate him from some of the other guards in this draft. At 6 foot 5, White can play both guard positions well in an outside shooting offensive system. He has the ability to facilitate an offense, as well as play off the ball and knock down open shots.

White is an extremely quick guard who’s bursts of speed and size combination will give opposing guards nightmares. White’s acceleration attacking the basket was effective even against the top competition in the ACC, and I don’t see that changing at the next level. When he attacks, he is likely going to score. He is a dynamic finisher around the rim and has a repertoire of mid-range shots, floaters and push shots that he can use to shoot over the defense if he can’t get all the way to the rim.

I was really impressed with White’s skillset and poise as UNC’s starting guard and #1 scoring option. He is one of the players I am most excited about in this rookie class.

Needs Improvement: Volume Shooter, Passer, Size

At 6 foot 5, White’s height is ideal for a combo guard, but he is only 185 lbs, and will have to fill out if he wants to be able to play SG or defend SG’s in the NBA. That will come with time and a few seasons of ‘in-the-gym’ work in the NBA.

Being the dynamic scorer that he is, he can also shoot your team out of a game. Coby White has never met a shot that he hasn’t liked. He has a tendency to fall in love with the outside shot which is not his biggest strength. His shot selection could eventually limit his minutes in the NBA if he does not clean it up.

Personally, I believe that White needs to improve his ability to facilitate an offense if he wants to be an elite player at the NBA level. White mostly plays with the ball in his hand so he’ll have to learn how to create for his teammates, especially in his rookie campaign. 

Floor: Elfrid Payton

Ceiling: Lou Williams

Telling Analytic: Defensive Box Score +/- (2.3)

Coby White often plays at the point guard position, where at 6 foot 5 he possesses tremendous size and gives many opposing guards trouble scoring the ball. White was such an impact defensively for the Tar Heels last year that he contributed a DBPM (Defensive Box Score Plus Minus) of 2.3. What this means is that White is 2.3 points better on defense for his team than an average defender would be. This ranks the highest out of the top point guards in this class and attributes to White’s ability to play on both ends.

Best Fit: Phoenix Suns

Overall: Overall, Coby White has a competitive edge to him that I would want my PG to have. He’s a tenacious competitor who plays with a great deal of poise as a freshman. I think White will have to improve in a few areas before he is considered a well-rounded guard, but he has a tremendous amount of potential to be a stud in the NBA.

POSITION RANK: 4

Name: Shamorie Ponds

Height: 6 foot 1

Weight: 175 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 2

Team: St.Johns

Stats: 19.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.1 APG, 2.6 SPG, 45.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 83.6% FT,

Strengths: Shot creator, Defense, Big Time Player

Ponds is impressive scorer from the Big East who can beat you in multiple ways. He is quick off the dribble and has a knack for getting into the lane and finishing with either a floater, pull up jumper, or an attack right to the basket. Ponds can also create his own shot on the perimeter. His ability to separate himself from defenders helps him get open looks which is so important for a smaller guard.  Ponds is also a menace on the defensive end. He averaged just over two and a half steals per game last year and it is because of his ability to read passing lanes and anticipate plays. Ponds’ defensive IQ is very high; this makes up for his lack of size. I also love the fact that Ponds shows up in big games. He was the go-to guy at St. Johns, and was counted on to contribute in the clutch, and Ponds usually delivered. The ability to handle pressure and overcome adversity down the stretch leads me to believe that Ponds will be able to contribute important minutes for the team that drafts him.

Needs Improvement: Better Competition, Size

Ponds can flat out score, nobody is arguing that. The fact that his strength of schedule was so bad last year and his numbers weren’t remarkable- does raise some red flags. Ponds’ SOS (Strength of schedule) was nearly double in his sophomore year, yet his numbers were marginally different. I would have expected Ponds’ to shoot the ball more efficiently, and score the ball at will against lower-tier teams, but that was just not the case. His size will also hinder him at the next level. At only 6 foot 1, ponds would be one of the smaller guards in the league and would have trouble matching up against bigger, more aggressive guards. As good as Ponds is on the defensive end, he’ll have trouble guarding the pick and roll, and will likely get isolated off switches against bigger, more imposing players.

Floor: Jameer Nelson

Ceiling: Kemba Walker

Telling Analytic: Player Efficiency Rating (26.9)

By simply glancing at Ponds’ numbers they are impressive, but not overly efficient. He only shot 35% from three, and 45% from the field. However, diving deeper into the analytics, it can be found that Ponds was actually one of the most efficient players in the NCAA last year. PER is a per minute production metric, standardized so that the league average is 15. Ponds’ PER was a remarkable 26.9! That would be top 5 in the NBA to put it in comparison. This could be attributed to Ponds’ high usage rate, and low turnover rate. Ponds’ ability to take care of the ball and make good decisions that doesn’t always involve a FGA, makes him incredibly valuable to any team.

Best Fit: Detroit Pistons

Overall: Ponds is an interesting prospect and has potential to be a dynamic scorer in this league. Offensively he can create his own shot and play off ball which is very valuable for a combo guard. It’s hard to judge his statistics from last year because he had such a weak SOS. In his sophomore year his strength of schedule was almost double and his FG%, 3P%, and eFG% were all career lows, while his turnovers went up by 0.7/game. Ponds will have to adjust to better competition and overcome a lack of size if he wants to become an impactful player in the NBA.

POSITION RANK: 5

Name: Carsen Edwards

Height: 6 foot 1

Weight: 200 lbs

Wingspan: 6 foot 5

Team: Purdue

Stats: 24.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.3 SPG, 39.4% FG, 35.5% 3FG, 83.7% FT

Strengths: Scoring, Deep Threat, Clutch

Carsen Edwards was nothing short of spectacular in March at the NCAA tournament. Edwards averaged 23 PPG on some inefficient shooting, but showed his big-play capability in the Elite 8 with 42 points in an overtime loss to Virginia. Throughout the 2018-19 season Edwards scored at will, averaging just over 24 PPG, with a good majority of those points coming from deep. Edwards shoots the ball very well and has NBA range already. He could really help teams space the floor in the NBA, and would ideally be a scoring threat immediately off the bench in his rookie campaign. I also love the fact that Edwards is clutch. He isn’t afraid to take the big shot, which to me, signifies that he will not shy away in big moments. He can be relied upon to contribute for teams in important points of the game if needed.

Needs Improvement: Efficiency, Shot Selection, All other categories

Unfortunately for Edwards, efficiency is something that he struggles with. Edwards only shot 39.4% from the field, and 35.5% from beyond the arc, which is far below the standard for a 20+ PPG player. Edwards cannot take this ‘volume shooting’ mentality to the NBA and must learn to take better shots and knock them down with more consistency. This issue, of course, stems from Edwards’ shot selection. At Purdue Edwards was given the green light to launch from anywhere at anytime, and often did just that. That won’t fly in the pro’s, and if Edwards wants to see significant court time, he’ll have to learn to stop taking poor shots. Aside from scoring, Edwards really has no other impact on the game which is something that he definitely needs to work on. His rebounding and assists numbers are alarmingly low, and he is an average defender at best. There will definitely be nights when his shot will not fall, and Edwards needs to realize that he’ll need to contribute in other ways, whether that be defense, playmaking or rebounding, if wants to stay on the floor.

Floor: Randy Foye

Ceiling: Ben Gordon

Best Fit: Indiana Pacers

Telling Analytic: Defensive Box +/- (-0.2)

Unfortunately, Edwards’ telling analytic is a negative one. Edwards possesses a negative Defensive BPM, which means he is worse on defense than the average Division 1 basketball player. Considering how many players there are in Division 1, Edwards should definitely be working on his defense this offseason to ease his transition into the NBA. Similar to Ponds, Edwards’ lack of size will likely be targeted by opposing teams. Edwards will become victim to switches onto bigger players in the pick and roll, and will have trouble defending more imposing players. He’ll need to get stronger and quicker on the defensive end so he does not become a liability.

Overall: I think Edwards can contribute in the NBA, but his impact is all a matter of whether or not he improves on his glaring weaknesses. His shooting can help any team space the floor, but inconsistency, shot selection, and poor defense may hurt his stock going into the 2019 draft. I can see him being a 2nd round selection who comes off the bench and provides instant offense, similar to a Ben Gordon type of player.