Top 10 Most Populous Countries in 2025, Birth Rates, and Capacity to Feed

1. India

Population: 1.45 billion (surpassed China in 2023, growing 0.7% annually).

Birth Rate: 16.8 births/1,000 (TFR 2.0, declining from 2.2 in 2015-2020).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: World’s 2nd largest food producer (340 million tons), top in rice (22% global share), wheat, and pulses. Monsoon and river systems (e.g., Ganges) irrigate 55% of farmland.

Challenges: 16% below poverty line ($2.15/day,), 35% child malnutrition. Imports $30 billion in edible oils yearly.

Assessment: Largely self-sufficient (exports $50 billion), but uneven distribution and climate risks (e.g., erratic monsoons) strain capacity for 1.45 billion.

2. China

Population: 1.42 billion (peaked 2022, declining 0.1% annually).

Birth Rate: 7.5 births/1,000 (TFR 1.2, post-One-Child Policy decline,).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: World’s largest food producer (660 million tons, FAO 2023), tops in rice, pork, vegetables. 540 million hectares of farmland, advanced tech (e.g., hybrid rice).

Challenges: Only 13% arable land, aging workforce, imports 80% of soybeans ($40 billion).

Assessment: Feeds 1.42 billion with heavy imports and tech, but shrinking population eases pressure; water scarcity (e.g., northern droughts) a risk.

3. United States

Population: 345 million (growth 0.5%, driven by immigration).

Birth Rate: 11.4 births/1,000 (TFR 1.6, stable).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: Agricultural powerhouse (370 million tons, 2023), top in corn, soybeans, beef. Exports $150 billion annually, 19% arable land.

Challenges: 10% food insecure (USDA 2022), obesity over malnutrition (40% obese).

Assessment: Surplus capacity—feeds 345 million and exports widely; no systemic shortage risks.

4. Indonesia

Population: 285 million (growth 0.8%).

Birth Rate: 16.5 births/1,000 (TFR 2.2, declining).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: 4th in rice production (35 million tons), palm oil leader (45 million tons, 2023). Fertile volcanic soil.

Challenges: 9% undernourished (FAO 2023), rural poverty (20%), imports rice ($1 billion).

Assessment: Near self-sufficient for 285 million, but rapid urbanization strains resources; exports offset imports.

5. Pakistan

Population: 251 million (growth 1.8%).

Birth Rate: 27.5 births/1,000 (TFR 3.3, high).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: 5th in wheat (27 million tons), rice exporter (4 million tons). Indus River irrigates 20 million hectares.

Challenges: 24% undernourished, water scarcity (1,000 m3/capita, critical level), 40% poverty.

Assessment: Struggles to feed 251 million—imports $5 billion in food; high growth risks famine without reform.

6. Nigeria

Population: 230 million (growth 2.4%, highest in top 10).

Birth Rate: 36.5 births/1,000 (TFR 5.3, among world’s highest).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: 30% arable land, yam leader (50 million tons), cassava (60 million tons). Oil wealth ($40 billion exports).

Challenges: 40% food insecure, imports $10 billion (rice, wheat), insurgency disrupts farming.

Assessment: Can’t fully feed 230 million—growth outpaces output; oil funds imports, but rural hunger persists.

7. Brazil

Population: 212 million (growth 0.4%, slowing).

Birth Rate: 13.8 births/1,000 (TFR 1.7, below replacement).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: Global breadbasket—soybeans (140 million tons), beef, coffee leader. Exports $120 billion, 25% arable land.

Challenges: 15% poverty, Amazon deforestation risks long-term yield.

Assessment: Easily feeds 212 million with surplus—exports dwarf domestic needs; sustainable land use key.

8. Bangladesh

Population: 175 million (growth 1.0%).

Birth Rate: 17.0 births/1,000 (TFR 2.0).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: 3rd in rice (36 million tons), fish production (4 million tons). Ganges-Brahmaputra delta fertile.

Challenges: 14% undernourished, high density (1,200/km2), floods disrupt 20% of crops yearly.

Assessment: Feeds 175 million narrowly—imports $6 billion (wheat, oil); climate resilience critical.

9. Russia

Population: 144 million (decline 0.2%).

Birth Rate: 10.5 births/1,000 (TFR 1.5, low).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: Wheat leader (85 million tons), 10% arable land. Exports $40 billion, vast resources.

Challenges: 13% poverty, harsh climate limits growing season.

Assessment: Surplus for 144 million—exports heavily; declining population reduces pressure.

10. Ethiopia

Population: 130 million (growth 2.5%).

Birth Rate: 31.0 births/1,000 (TFR 4.2, declining).

Capacity to Feed:

Strengths: Coffee leader, (10 million tons), 15% arable land with Nile tributaries.

Challenges: 20% undernourished (FAO), drought-prone (e.g., 2022 famine), imports $3 billion.

Assessment: Struggles to feed 130 million—growth strains fragile system; aid-dependent (10% GDP).