This Too Shall Pass - 1 Year Later

This article was written a year ago at the beginning of the Covid -19 crisis. I wonder if we learned anything (except washing hands more often and wearing masks) from it. The way I see it - Greed is still the leitmotif of our country. Corporate greed, political greed, and media greed, all who will sell their souls for higher margins, higher ratings, and higher voter turnout, respectively. Did we learn anything from it or do we only watch Dow Jones and BitCoin prices in our portfolio? I may be in the minority but I do expect the next economic crisis to hit us soon. This crisis changed the fabric of our society. Starting from the US debt that surpassed $28 Trillion (!) and moving higher to the ongoing social unrest to euphoric levels of the stock market to the income disparity that has not been seen in generations. I want to be wrong for the sake of future generations, however, it does not seem to be plausible that we will pass this medium-sized crisis unscathed. Yours truly, Cassandra.

King Solomon was a wise man. He was a king, after all. He understood or was made to understand (depending on the source) that nothing good or bad in our world, including the world itself, will last. Nothing remains forever.

Neither will our present state of being, in which so many people are affected by this coronavirus that has disrupted – and will continue to disrupt – so many lives in so many different ways. People are afraid: afraid to socialize, afraid to shop, afraid to kiss, afraid to work and afraid to play. Something we took for granted in many Western countries – simply having an inexhaustible supply of toilet paper – seems to be precarious, even if there is no real shortage but store shelves are now often empty of the product due to panic buying. People are hoarding hand sanitizer, food, and ammunition based on instinct and emotion rather than logic. There are fights and endless lines in stores.

People are glued to all types of media in the hope of seeing news of a panacea against the virus. They stay at home virtually quarantined, which may result in a mini-baby boom, a spike in divorce rates or possibly both. People are genuinely afraid for their lives.

Pre-virus, most of us had become spoiled in our relatively calm daily lives. Most of us were not affected by disasters, natural or manmade. Not that nothing happened – such as wildfires, hurricanes, and shooting deaths. But for the most part, these tragedies happened to someone else, not to us. These disasters and the people who were affected by them seemed far away, and we learned about them via the internet or TV. We sympathized without being personally affected.

But all that has changed. Somewhere in China, in a place that most of us can’t find on a map, something

happened, and it has affected millions, if not billions, of people. However, the effect of coronavirus, in my opinion, is just starting. Even when the virus eventually flatlines and then recedes, if not disappears, across the globe, its effects will linger, known to hundreds of millions of people in different ways. I am willing to venture a guess that the lasting effects of this virus will be much more painful to many than were the aftershocks of 9/11.

One of the biggest proponents of globalization, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote in 2011 that “in the hyperconnected world, there is only ‘good,’ ‘better’ and ‘best.’” Yes, it is a terrific feeling to buy 25 pairs of pants made in China or Vietnam and not pay more than $500. It is wonderful to walk in the park, enjoying the fresh air, even though elsewhere on the other side of the globe people haven’t seen clear skies for months or years. By the way, among the few benefits of the virus is that Wuhan – the ground zero of the virus in China – has had clear skies when the factories there shut down; and in Venice – where the usual activities of daily life have come to a halt in corona-devastated Italy, as in so many other urban venues around the world – swans have appeared on the city’s canals, perhaps for the first time ever.

In the three decades following the end of the Cold War, globalization has been a dream of corporate CEOs, who salivated over quarterly profits (and their resulting fat bonuses) from cheaply manufactured goods that flooded our consumer-centric society. It seemed that the music would never stop. But, alas, it has, and how! It has stopped with a vengeance as a yet-unknown number of people will ultimately be affected by the virus. We have yet to discover how many people are destined to get sick and die, but eventually, we will. Soon enough, the reports will come in and we will see a disaster that may be equal to a world war.

And we, in this country, will fully feel the effects of the globalization that Friedman has loved so very much. We have drastically scaled back manufacturing in the United States. Since 1950 our share of the world’s manufacturing output has steadily declined, falling from about 40 percent to about 25 percent today. We have come to rely on China and other Asian Pacific countries for so much of the material goods that we consume (other than food), including much of the pharmaceuticals, face masks, and hand sanitizer that we will need to get through the current crisis.

This seems to be either criminal or really, really stupid. We can survive without two dozen pairs of jeans but not without pharmaceuticals and face masks should our overseas suppliers halt production. I would even say that we can live without toilet paper for a while. (I come from the former Soviet Union, so I am not a stranger to shortages of toilet paper and other basic staples.) However, unlike cheap pants, pharmaceuticals and other items necessary for survival are crucial. Under Soviet strongman Joseph Stalin, those occupying positions parallel to today’s CEOs would be tried and shot for sabotage. Not that anybody misses the “good old days” of Uncle Joe.

Nothing exposes weakness – be it that of an individual, a society or a country – more than a crisis. We find out what we are capable of and how we react. So far, the reaction to the crisis has been, in my opinion, subpar. The best way to contain the virus is to isolate people from exposure. This is what Wuhan officials did so well. We have failed in this respect. Airports and international flights are still operating, quarantines are not enforced, tests are not available in sufficient quantities. We are even importing swabs from Italy, which is overwhelmed by the crisis. How did we get to this point?

 We got to this point by letting greed take the best of us. We let corporate executives call the shots. Globalization was a leitmotif of every shareholders meeting – and it worked! Until it didn’t. Like today. We are finding out that Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale “The Emperor’s New Clothes” is about us. But we do have plenty of clothes, perhaps, too many. However, we are lacking masks, plastic tubes for ventilators, ventilators, and pharmaceuticals – because globalization made CEOs decide to outsource, due to cheaper labor costs, manufacturing of products that are strategically important, products that make a difference whether people live or die.

 The United States claims to be the greatest country in the world, but we have failed to protect our citizens by not being sufficiently prepared – and still, to some extent, by relying on globalization and foreign suppliers. Is this what Thomas Friedman had in mind when he said that globalization is the best thing since apple pie? It is great to be a globalist in times of peace and prosperity. But globalists can quickly become nationalists in times of crisis, closing down borders and shutting down supply channels.

 This is the time to reset our thinking. I am not advocating against globalization overall, and in any case, that would be impossible. I just want to use common sense. We can still have our pants and staplers manufactured somewhere else, even though it would be a good idea to bring at least some textile manufacturing back to this country. It would generate more jobs and tax revenue. Walmart should not be the only mass employer in small towns that prospered for so many years producing goods locally.

I know that many disagree. I understand that we are likely to pay a bit more for a pair of pants made in the USA – but that inconvenience would be offset by knowing that local factories are employing people who make goods here in the US. I don’t know about you, but it makes me feel better to see cranes in action building a local factory and to know that the resulting local jobs will produce their own economic ecosystem around it. I would love to see higher taxes imposed on companies that manufacture goods outside of the United States. I would love to see government subsidies for businesses that manufacture in the United States. And I would love to see increased government support for vocational schools and apprentice programs that prepare qualified workers. Let Walmart compete for its employees.

Because I am an idealist, I would also love to see our government leaders make policies that serve the interests of American citizens – a resetting away from what special interests group dictate, doing what is best for the country, and not only when a crisis hits hard. Not when it is already too late, and thousands will die. Corporate culture is, to a large degree, driven by Wall Street, which looks ahead only to the next quarter. But is this perhaps passé, outmoded thinking? I don’t agree with Bernie Sanders, who wants to nationalize and re-distribute. But if we do not change the way we think about our future, we may be confronted by a not-so “socialist paradise” sooner than we think. Trust me, I have been there. Not having toilet paper was the least of their problems.

But this too shall pass. When the virus finally dies down, we will be living a New Normal. Kids will be born and play in playgrounds. Our society will evolve into something very different from the one that we knew pre-corona virus.

Until the next crisis hits. But this too shall pass.