Too many or too few? Walking the tightrope of student numbers in 2020.

This could be the most important Clearing in history. A-level results day is just around the corner on the 13th August 2020 when students finally find out what grades they have been awarded, despite not taking any exams this year.

Students don’t really know what to expect, so predicting their behavior is going to be difficult.

Switching, deferring, retakes, progressing as normal, trying their luck for a better place, or perhaps choosing a different subject suitable for a COVID-19 world?

What we do know is that universities have spaces available. Many of the UK's top universities are actively seeking applicants. Just a few days ago the University of Manchester (currently ranked 8th in the UK by THE World University Rankings) was listing 322 courses available in Clearing including aerospace engineering, classics and English literature.

Potentially there is a lot of movement in the market that could still happen.

Ofqual have already announced a +2% grade inflation on 2019 but also cautioned that approximately 12% of students won’t get the grades that their teachers have recommended.

"A substantial number of students will receive at least one grade that has been adjusted as a result of the standardisation process. And while some will be adjusted upwards, on average, centres have submitted grades that are higher than would be expected." Ofqual Chief Regulator Sally Collier.

Universities will be busy running scenarios of confirmation (accepting students who have dropped grades) and how many course vacancies they still need to fill if they do lower entry requirements.

Forecasting student numbers is a difficult task at the best of times but this year it must feel impossible.

The main issue is not just the lack of data that can help us in this uncharted territory, it is the fact the end goal isn’t very clear.

Vice Chancellors and executive committees do not know what they want to achieve because each scenario presents its own problems.

On the one hand universities desperately need student numbers to be financially viable. That is abundantly clear from the strong stance of opening campuses in the autumn.

But on the other hand, the more students they recruit the greater the problems and costs they will face with safety measures across campus – timetabling, cleaning, quarantine, footfall, student satisfaction, staff and student welfare…

With problems on both sides the way forward isn't an easy path.

Back in May the Office for Students announced stability measures to ensure the integrity of the English higher education sector. They placed a cap to limit universities to +5% on their own yearly forecast.

The aim is to try and replicate the distribution of grades and university places from 2019 – then everyone will have a fair share, know what to expect and we can continue with some normality.  

However Bahram Bekradnia, Founder of HEPI and former Director of Policy for the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) describes the fundamental problems with this approach in his blog ‘Why the new student number cap is unworkable’ from May 2020.

One big problem is that the ‘home’ student cap includes EU students.

UCAS recently reported a -2% decline in EU applications year on year and this can only have been compounded now by the COVID situation and the UK government’s ever-changing response to air bridges and travel corridors.

My own work with Vermilion Group and the OK Estudante/OK Estudiante agencies that recruit over 2,000 students from Europe to UK universities is starting to feel a bit like quarantine hokey-cokey. You put Spain in - you take Portugal out… in, out, in, out… shake it all about.

Students and families are understandably worried about what quarantine means and this will continue to impact enrollments and retention.

So with potentially lower EU numbers and a +5% margin - that actually gives some universities quite a lot of room to be aggressive in Clearing - and give other universities reason to be concerned.  

If the top thirty most popular universities all over-recruit by 5% then that is a very big void for some of the smaller institutions – especially alongside their potential international student gap. Also, if the top thirty universities don’t release students then there will be less students entering Clearing for the traditional reasons. They may in fact be seeking to adjust upwards.

So the temptation is real for the strong universities to get stronger.

But an aggressive strategy could lead to over-recruitment, OfS fines and capacity problems on campus. So perhaps not so tempting after all.

So how will this play out?

A fundamental assumption of the OfS student number cap is that students will be satisfied with the grades they have been given and select a university choice appropriate for their entry requirements.

Opinion surveys are showing that students both in the UK and from overseas are committed to enrollment. My concern has always been a big gap between student expectations of receiving predicated grades and what they will actually get. I remember the avalanche of Twitter memes just a few months ago as students celebrated what they thought was receiving their predicted grades. Think dancing grandmas and happy dogs on skateboards.

We can assume 12% of those same students might now be disappointed - and the memes take a more frustrated tone. But will it change their behavior in selecting universities?

Will students be prepared to defer or to retake? Is any result a bonus if you didn't have to revise or complete an exam? Will they want the safety of switching to a university closer to home or will they be desperate to escape their childhood bedrooms after lockdown and accept any place they can?

I guess we will find out next week (and I suspect for a few weeks beyond).

This is a drama being played out in slow-motion.

University admissions teams aren’t renowned for speed… and now they’ve started working from home.

Spare a thought for university admissions officers who are forbidden from foreign holidays in August in any given year (let alone in a global pandemic) and now have the unenviable task of navigating universities along a too many, too few tightrope towards September.

The day of reckoning beckons. I'll see you there.

My name is Nicholas Cuthbert, Director of OK Student. I promote British universities and provide opportunities for talented students to study and work in the UK. Comments and connections are always welcome - [email protected]