Too Close to Call?
Chip Ahlswede
I represent and advocate for the industry that provides housing to millions of Americans
We are now a week out of the election without a clear understanding of which party will control which chambers of the congress.
Prevailing sentiment is that the Senate will be controlled by the Democrats with one run off election left to be held. The Senate's makeup is essentially the same as it was last year.
On the House of Representatives side it is likely that the Republicans will be in control. Again however that is yet to be called officially. Regardless of the final counts such a slim majority of leadership in either chamber shows that there is not a clear statement of the country's sentiments being aligned with one side party or the other. This once again shows that there is not a party mandate. Just like we discussed as this whole thing began -
Once you watch it play out in state houses and local races you quickly see even more razor thin margins between the candidates - including races that are tied going into week two of counting. The question this all brings up however is - why does everything seem "too close to call?"
Understanding the Districts
Each state is in charge of drawing their own districts. That responsibility is further designated to the counties, municipalities and special districts. While there are many different methodologies employed to design those districts they follow a few very common patterns:
Now that last one isn't official, but anyone looking at the outcome of the past series of elections can see that there is very little shift in control of seats that occurs when new districts are drawn.
Regardless, we just finished the first set of elections under these districts, so now is the time to invest in understanding the districts, their demographics, the trends leading into these districts, and the efforts around the region that could shift those demographics.
The Trap of Culture
Everything has become a political act. Anyone who has opened social media or seen a news report realizes how over politicized everything has become. Politics has become inescapable, and as such partisanship has seeped into areas it doesn't belong.
One of the local radio stations in Southern California has a regular bit called "How Long Until Political" which takes seemingly mundane social media posts and the show hosts try to guess how long until someone makes the post political.
Spoiler alert - it is always very quickly. And that's how everything is right now.
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The hosts do a great job of pointing out how absurd it is that these posts go political, and it really is fun to see them deconstruct these incidents. None the less it speaks volumes that it is relatable enough to become a morning drive time show staple.
The current state of culture where everything becomes a political confrontation, and people seeing everything as a political act means that we are going to line up on sides and do what we can to promote "our side."
Data Is In Charge
Campaigning has changed. Signs, events, flyers, and walking precincts used to be the way candidates got to know their constituents. There was a chance to interact with the candidates and their supporters all over the place. They were more human, and as such not as hate-able.
Campaign efficiency doesn't waste its time with such quaint antiquities anymore. Using voter rolls, consumer data, statistical analyses, polling, and messaging experts candidates tailor their campaigns to focus on getting out to only those individuals who are high-propensity voters - issues based voters - or fundraising sources. And the data available can micro-target the message/ pitch/ invite/ get out the vote effort specifically to only those candidates that fit a certain profile that supports that candidate's intents.
Meaning the casual voter doesn't get the level of contact with the candidates that they used to - and this level of campaigning furthers the echo chambers of those individuals they try to connect with.
The impact of this is these elections where only a sliver of individuals that were guaranteed to vote are communicated with - and as such calculated so closely that each side reaches out to the right groups of individuals to turn out and vote for that candidate.
The campaign tactics produce just enough votes to win - which makes the results razor thin.
We Are to Blame
Each year voters complain about the candidates, the lack of choices and how they do not represent their ideas. All very valid criticisms - except...
On the other side -
There is a lot we can do on both sides of these elections. But the reason that everything has become such narrow victories is because of the conditions we have placed ourselves, and the way in which campaigns can reach maximum efficiency.
The models work, but they aren't working for the democracy we deserve. Community members need to reach out to candidates as much as candidates need to look "beyond their base" when they are running for office.