Tom’s take #8: Impressions of COP28 – UNFCCC climate negotiations or “Climate Expo 2023”?

The final negotiations on definitive wording for #article6 and the Global Stocktake are currently hovering on the cliff edge, which will decide whether #COP28 becomes a total failure or somehow manages to avoid that in a big turnaround of events. Here are my first-hand impressions from COP28 in #Dubai, a maiden event for me. This is more of a personal recollection of my experience there. Actual outcomes of COP and the ensuing dissections and interpretations can in any case better be looked up in the relevant media.?

Please find my 10 impressions of the first COP in the United Arab Emirates below:

1.???? The climate emergency is here: 2023 broke all heat records. We need to come together now to fight the worst effects of climate change. Real #decarbonization till 2030 seems very far out of reach. Does anyone still believe that emissions will peak in 2025? The sad reality is that we are probably well past the tipping point and more and more disastrous climate disasters will succeed each other at ever shorter intervals. This reality needs to be faced and earnest commitments to real climate mitigation and adaptation need to be entered into, even if they are painful. Because if we don’t, whatever is ahead of us will be even more painful.

2.???? The hosts: the United Arab Emirates was superb in receiving the world and making everyone feel welcome. Immigration officials handed out free SIM cards. Every blue zone attendee received a free metro pass and a water bottle, which could be filled throughout the blue zone complex. There was plenty of food and water and the infrastructure generally worked well. This of course cannot distract from the fact that Dubai is an extremely wasteful and somewhat surreal place, with ski slopes, artificial islands and green golf courses with lush English lawn in the middle of the desert.

3.???? The size: I keep hearing that the UN Climate Change annual conference of the parties increases in size every year and COP28 was no different. With over 97,000 attendees, it was significantly larger than last year’s predecessor in Sharm-El-Sheikh. The #UAE sent the most delegates, followed by #Brazil, #China, #Nigeria and #Indonesia. Sadly, more and more fossil fuel lobbyists make it into the ranks of countries’ party overflow delegations.

4.???? Diversity: What is the most striking about COP really is its diversity. This is a truly global event, a bazaar, a meeting place of cultures and of - to a large extent - likeminded individuals, who congregate here because they deeply care about the state of the climate, which they want to improve.?I found the interplay between politicians, business leaders, NGOs and activists very important and rather fruitful.

5.???? Indigenous representation was felt everywhere: Next to the large and very empowered (and female!) contingent from the Brazilian Amazon, there were First Nations people from all four corners of the world, including #Australia and the Pacific. It was very inspiring to exchange with these groups individually, to hear their stories and to learn about their vision for the future. I am deeply convinced that the world can learn a lot from ancient knowledge and Indigenous stewardship of the land, and there are companies trying to leverage this knowledge for the greater good.

6.???? Climate negotiations are slow and painful: They are necessary, and really are the only tool to bring about lasting change. Be it article 6, the Loss and Damage fund, or the Global Stocktake, the Parties engage in intensive and onerous discussions. Every voice is heard, and Parties coalesce into common interest groups, such as Argentina-Brazil-Uruguay, the EU, AILAC (Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean) or AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States). Since the COP can only take decisions based on consensus, where “everyone agrees to agree”, the process is slow and painful, but also really inclusive.

7.???? The COP decision making process needs reform: Some proponents, such as former Ireland President Mary Robinson and former US Vice President Al Gore, advocate for a three quarter majority rule to speed up the decision-making process. Given the urgency of the climate crisis, this could be a sensible approach, yet its feasibility remains to be seen. According to Gore, at COP1, then German environment minister Angela Merkel had already proposed to implement a majority vote of Parties to adopt negotiations, but some countries unfortunately opposed this.

8.???? Carbon markets are here to stay, but the current lack of confidence in voluntary carbon markets is hard to overcome: What we saw at COP28 gave hope though – six major carbon standards agreed to cooperate and seek similar benchmarks for quality, seeking assessment under the The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) 's Core Carbon Principles (CCPs). VCMI , SBTI , the CDP , We Mean Business Coalition , and others also issued a joint statement, to establish an ‘end-to-end’ framework to provide consistent guidance on decarbonization, including the use of carbon credits for residual emissions

9.???? For carbon markets to come back, we need convergence: And we need governments, or a supra-national body to underwrite markets. That’s where article 6 of the Paris Agreement comes into play – once agreed. Australia with the Emissions Reduction Fund and the reverse auction process set a great example for a market being designed, operated and de-risked by government backing.

10.? Special thanks to the pavilions run by Australia, France and #IETA, where I spent the most time, meeting with old friends, new colleagues and carbon market veterans. The COP28 is a mega event, and its carbon footprint by itself is enormous. Yet, it is the best thing humans (via the UNFCC) have come up with so far for addressing the climate crisis. So let’s use this vehicle, remember the urgency of the task ahead and also the legacy of our inaction that will ensure us the wrath and utter lack of comprehension by future generations.