??Toasting Fall & Conquering Gaul??

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The First Word        

Fall is here, and after a week of exploring Southern Bavaria and savoring the culture at Oktoberfest, it's time to get back to work and catch up on the latest economic updates:

Housing ?? Market: Affordability Challenges New Single-Family Home Sales experienced an 8.7% drop in August, attributed to the rise in mortgage rates. While sales remain 24.3% higher than their lows in July 2022, they still fall short of the peak seen in 2020. The primary challenge plaguing the US housing market is affordability, with mortgage rates up by 30% on average since the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle began.

Income & Spending: On the ?? income and spending front, some encouraging news emerges: Personal Income saw a 0.4% increase in August, marking a 4.8% year-over- year growth. Private-sector wages & salaries also grew by 0.5% in August, with an impressive 5.6% year-over- year increase. Consumer spending showed resilience, growing by 0.4%,

GDP: Last week, GDP took ?? center stage, but not Q2 GDP, which held steady at 2.1% after final estimates. It's Q3 that's stealing the spotlight, with the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model predicting a Real GDP growth rate of 4.9%. This would mark the fastest growth rate since the early days of the COVID recovery. That news, along with another avoidance of government shutdown, should be the toast of the town. Prost!

This Week in History...        

On October 3rd, 52 BC, the leader of the Gauls, Vercingetorix, surrendered to the Roman General Julius Caesar.

Besieging the town of Alesia and working to subdue the Gauls in their own territory, Caesar found himself surrounded by their relief force. His process of investment, a military term meaning to cut off escape and communications in siege warfare, had failed. Luckily, he was tipped off to this fact by Gallic deserters. Caesar then built a second line of defensive fortifications around the town, summarily defeated the insufficient relief force, and forced the town to surrender. The Roman victory greatly expanded Roman territory and Caesar’s glory, leading to his seizure of power and dictatorship in 49 BC. However, forgetting the lesson of Alesia, Caesar neglected defense in the forum and was murdered by disgruntled knife wielding Senators. Defense matters. Indeed, in the most over-used sporting cliche? of all time, some have said that it wins championships.

Friends, Romans, countrymen...lend me your ears...here are four lessons to keep in mind from Caesar’s conquering of Gaul.

1. Defend Yourself! Part of your investment process must be figuring out and implementing defensive tactics. Especially now, as it seems we are continually under siege. But the good news is with short- term Treasury Bills yielding north of 5 percent, and it is easier to defend than it was just a year ago.

2. Information is Power: Caesar valued intelligence. Do your research if you too want to say Veni, Vidi, Vici...or I came, I saw, I conquered.

3. Beware of Overconfidence: Caesar's overconfidence led to his downfall, literally his falling down in the Senate, because he refused to believe that what was happening now wouldn’t continue forever. That is recency bias.

4. Choose Your Oracles Carefully: Yes, Caesar ignored the soothsayer who cautioned him to “beware the ides of March.” But today’s soothsayers aren’t anywhere near as accurate. So, be suspicious of your sources.

Compliance Stuff        

The views expressed within this newsletter are subject to change at any time without notice and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or strategy. All investments carry certain risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

Patrick Huey is an investment advisor representative of Dynamic Wealth Advisors dba Victory Independent?Planning, LLC. All investment advisory services are offered through Dynamic Wealth Advisors. Patrick Huey is the author of two books: "History Lessons for the Modern Investor" and "The Seven Pillars of (Financial) Wisdom"; this is considered an outside business activity for Patrick Huey and is separate and apart from his activities as an investment advisor representative with Dynamic Wealth Advisors.