Tirzepatide Prescriptions‘s soaring may dominate the GLP-1 in weight-loss market .

Tirzepatide, sold under the brand name Mounjaro among others, is an antidiabetic medication used for the treatment of type?2 diabetes and weight loss. Tirzepatide is administered via subcutaneous injections (under the skin).

Tirzepatide improves blood glucose control by activating GLP-1 and GIP receptors. GLP-1 and glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) are hormones involved in blood glucose control. GLP-1 primarily affects insulin secretion and delays gastric emptying, thereby inhibiting appetite. GIP, or gastric inhibitory peptide, mainly inhibits gastric acid secretion and gastric motility, and also has some effects on protecting the pancreas and regulating insulin secretion.

According to a latest report by BMO, Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drug, Tirzepatide, is expected to "dominate" the weight loss market after 2024. Tirzepatide was approved by the FDA in November for long-term weight management in obese or overweight adults with at least one weight-related disease, such as high cholesterol, high blood pressure, or type 2 diabetes. The drug is set to receive FDA approval in 2022 for type 2 diabetes patients and was officially approved for weight loss in December.

According to IQVIA data referenced by BMO, the weekly prescription volume of Telaprevir has reached a record high of 291,225, with a weekly increase of 2%. Meanwhile, with an increase in production by Gilead in the first full month after the drug's launch, the weekly prescription volume of Telaprevir has skyrocketed by 192% to 22,335.

GLP-1 drugs prescription from Eli Lilly is growing, but Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic 's prescription declined with decreasing 4.4% and 1.6% respectively on a weekly basis.

The data suggests that Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs may take market share from Novo Nordisk.Impressively, Bydureon reached 22,000 prescriptions per week in its fourth week on the market. In comparison, BMO reports that it took Wegovy and Ozempic three to four months after launching to reach over 22,000 prescriptions per week. The drug has a dual appetite-suppressing effect when taken into the body

According to consulting firm GlobalData's prediction, the sales of Tirzepatide will potentially surpass Semaglutide in 2029, with a predicted sales revenue of $27 billion, becoming the leading drug in the obesity and diabetes market. A meta-analysis of 22 trials published in October 2023 by Rodriguez and colleagues demonstrated that Tirzepatide has better efficacy than Semaglutide.

Kevin Marcaida, a pharmaceutical analyst at GlobalData, commented: Semaglutide was first approved in May 2017, 5 years ahead of Tirzepatide, and is expected to take the lead in sales in short term. However,Tirzepatide sales forecast takes into account its superior clinical efficacy, which will allow it to surpass Semaglutide by 2027 and show strong annual growth.

In the next decade,Tirzepatide is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 36%, exceeding Semaglutide's 6.5%. Tirzepatide's strong forecast is mainly due to its FDA approval for obesity in November 2023, with the US expected to be a lucrative market, accounting for 76% of total sales from 2023 to 2029.

Due to the broad prospects of the weight loss drug market, many pharmaceutical companies are competing to enter the lucrative weight loss drug market.

According to the World Obesity Atlas 2023 by the World Obesity Federation, it is expected that by 2035, the global obese and overweight population will exceed 4 billion, accounting for 51% of the global population. The costs associated with controlling overweight and obesity are expected to reach 3.1% of global GDP. In the United States, the adult obesity rate is expected to reach 58% by 2035, with an annual growth rate of 2.1% from 2020 to 2035. Similarly, China's adult obesity rate is expected to reach 18% by 2035, increasing by 2.1% annually from 2020 to 2035.

The market for GLP-1 weight loss drugs is expected to grow significantly, but forecasts vary. Citigroup predicts the market will reach $71 billion by 2035, while JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs forecast annual sales of about $100 billion by 2030. Guggenheim went even further, suggesting the addressable market would be $150 billion to $200 billion. Analyst predicts that GLP-1 drugs will become the most prescribed drugs by 2031.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will maintain a duopoly in the market for a long time. Both companies have established significant first-mover advantages. Goldman Sachs predicts they will account for 80% of the market by 2030.