The Tipping Point: NATO, Russia, Guns and the Global Implications of US Elections

By Chocko Valliappa

As I watch the flight monitor and see that I'm flying over Iceland towards New York City, my mind drifts back to May this year when I spent a weekend in #Reykjavik. My Uber driver parked along the coastal road and urged me to visit a small house nearby. It was just a tiny room, but I later learned that this was where the Cold War effectively ended—a place where Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev met in 1986, laying the groundwork for what would culminate in the dissolution of the Soviet Union a few years later.

One of the key covenants of that meeting was that neither #NATO nor the Warsaw Pact would expand. I could feel the echoes of that momentous meeting, especially since I had been in Eastern Europe around that time, in the former Czechoslovakia, where I met many East Germans who had come to celebrate the reunification of Germany with their 200 Deutsche Mark "welcome money."

This handshake agreement led to the transformation of the Soviet Union into the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Russia. However, NATO did not honour the promise. Since the 1990s, NATO has been expanding, with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joining in 1999. Ukraine was the last straw for Russia, feeling encircled, especially since St. Petersburg is only about 60 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 but made the grave mistake of invading Ukraine in a full-scale war in 2022.

Living in Dubai now, I often meet neighbours from Kazakhstan and other former CIS countries who speak fondly of Russia. They all speak Russian and feel connected to it, often saying life was better when they were part of the Soviet Union. This sentiment made Russia's initial takeover of Crimea relatively easy. However, what Putin miscalculated was that this invasion would become a tipping point, leading to Russia's ostracization by the global community. This situation is not too different from China's occupation of Tibet, yet China remains the USA's largest trading partner.

As I read the news, I see that the U.S. is planning to fund Israel with $20 billion for its war efforts. What the world needs is the small-room diplomacy I saw in Reykjavik, Iceland. We need handshakes, not weapons; negotiations, not war.

It's interesting to observe the American general elections. Trump has emphatically stated that if he wins, there will be no wars, claiming one phone call could end the conflict. This may be true, as just last month, Ukraine signalled for the first time that it was ready to negotiate with Russia. However, with Kamala Harris now in the lead, the question arises: will she add fuel to the wars? Hopefully, she will draw from her Indian roots, embrace the philosophy of Mahatma Gandhi, and focus on non-violence instead of war.

The 162 million American voters will be asking themselves whether $100 billion of their money should be spent on the war in Ukraine.

Given the global stakes, it's no wonder that so many countries are invested in U.S. elections. Today’s news about ChatGPT suspending service to Iran over alleged meddling in U.S. elections illustrates how these elections resonate globally. Iran might hope that a Trump victory could prevent the $20 billion aid package to Israel, potentially opening a window for peace.

I was also reading about Armani, the 23-year-old American footballer who was gunned down, and how the Pittsburgh mayor and Steelers quarterback have united against gun violence. The National Rifle Association (NRA) has been a significant contributor to political campaigns, spending $54 million in 2016, including $30 million directly to Trump’s campaign. Yet, for the third time in American history, a presidential candidate has been shot at. Trump, too, has had a bullet graze his ears—perhaps a metaphorical warning that it’s time for America to become a more civil society. We need flowers to bloom, not bullets to be fired. The 2nd amendment seems so 18th century. I hope the candidates make clear their stances on ending violence.

Another key area of focus is immigration. America is one of the greatest examples of how immigrants from every part of the world have come together to live in harmony and contribute to building a prosperous nation. However, today there is significant clamor for building walls and preventing people from entering the country. Ironically, many of those advocating for such measures are the descendants of immigrants themselves, who are now becoming gatekeepers.

The generational aspect of how youth perceive the world will come into sharp focus in this election. For the first time, 41 million Gen Z voters will be eligible to cast their ballots. However, a worrying trend is the decline in the number of people registered to vote compared to two years ago. Previously, 168 million people were registered to vote, but that number has now decreased by as much as 8 million. Is this a reflection of growing disenchantment among Americans with the electoral system? Or do they care more about voting for "American Idol" than participating in national elections?

Finally, as I went through my third security screening in Dubai, I noticed an American ahead of me being asked to discard a water bottle. Frustrated, he asked to speak to a supervisor, questioning the need for such stringent security. Maybe American voters will realize that peace and freedom are deeply interconnected, both for the world and for America. I hope they recognize the power of their vote.

As I was about to board the flight, a Middle Eastern man in a thobe and headgear wished, "God bless America" as he exited security with a wry smile. I hope this election will indeed be a blessing for America and its people.

Ps. These are my personal thoughts, and views of what I see, seen and perceive.