Tip: How to select a future weather file for building performance simulations
Shady Attia 阿蒂亚
Professor in Sustainable Architecture and Building Technology at Université de Liège
According to the IPCC report (2021) [1], there is no longer any doubt that human activities have warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and lands. Climate change is becoming more widespread, faster, and more intense. Each of the last decades has been successively warmer than any decade since 1850.
For building performance modelers
According to Wahid Nik 2016 [4], there are four methods to create future climate scenarios:?
1. Dynamic downscaling: (Physics-based model used to downscale global climate model results)
2. Analogue scenarios: (Find existing locations with comparable data to the predicted climate change scenario results)
3. Time series adjustment (morphing): (Shift and stretch the existing data to match the predicted monthly change)
4. Statistical models: (Stochastic model trained on observed data adjusts data based on altered frequency distributions of weather variables)
The most reliable approach is to follow the dynamic downscaling approach
Solutions: For building energy modelers, I advise using dynamic downscale weather files developed nationally by recognized scientific peers or private service providers. If not, you can use commercial software like Meteonorm
Another approach could be using analog scenarios
This brings me to the final advice regarding choosing future weather files. Under any circumstance, your future weather file will not represent the urban local climate
Finally, there is nothing like real weather data in accuracy and representation. So the most sustainable approach is installing a network of urban weather stations and updating the future weather file projections every 5-6 years in coordination with the IPCC reports prognosis.
The tips above are the tips that I share with my students. Don't hesitate to correct me or englight my followers by posting comments.
Good luck, fellow modelers, below, you can find some useful resources.
领英推荐
References
[1] IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
[2] Barnaby & Crawley (2011). Weather data for building performance simulation in Hensen, & Lamberts, (eds.), Building performance simulation for design and operation?
[4] Nik, V. (2016). Making energy simulation easier for future climate–Synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets out of regional climate models (RCMs). Applied Energy, 177, 204–226.
[5] https://meteonorm.com/en/
[6] Bueno, B., Norford, L., Hidalgo, J., Pigeon, G. (2013). The urban weather generator, Journal of Building Performance Simulation. 6 , 269-281.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For building performance modelers, we can no longer rely on historical data for building energy modeling. We used historical typical meteorological year (TMY) files in the past today, we must opt for future weather files and prepare our buildings?? to be ??? climate-proof. I strongly recommend using future weather ?? files to better (more accurately) ?? design, equip and size our buildings and enable ??? climate-proof architectural design.
?? Read and share the ?? tip: https://lnkd.in/edncD6jQ
Thank you, Camille, ?Dru Crawley,?Wahid Nik, Anais Machard, Salvati, Parag Rastogi, Xavier Fetweis, and?Sebastien Doutreloup, for your inspiration.
Subscribe to my mailing list:?www.shadyattia.org
Look at my ?? recent posts' activities.?https://lnkd.in/eR-jiXtR
--
2 年Yes very good and interesting idea, I think I'll ask my doctorate to start working on this way and apply this advice ??
Toekomstbestendig met een veranderende klimaat! Sr. adviseur @ Arcadis | Community manager @ Samen Klimaatbestendig | Domeintrekker @ Collectief Natuurinclusief Ambassadeur @Werklandschappen
2 年Tijmen van der Sande en Madeleen Helmer , jullie wisten dit inhoudelijk al. Toch wel heel goed signaal dat ontwerpen voor toenemende hitte nu meer onder de aandacht komt.
Ph. D Research Scholar
2 年Hello everyone.Can anyone suggest me the best novels in climatic fictions which should talk about impact of climate change on human psyche.It's for my ph.d research
Forskare p? RISE Research Institutes of Sweden
2 年Check this Bj?rg Agas?ster
Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology
2 年Olivier Dartevelle