On timing, leverage, scarcity - and juggling short/long goals

The paradigms of making resilient decisions in a volatile environment

Ever regret not investing in crypto 10 years ago or missing the big wave of Nvidia a couple years back before the stock exploded (thanks to the AI chips?)

Some monumental events in business look astonishing - just like inventing Facebook or hoarding a domain like chat dot com (last purchased for $15M).

But one of the most significant risks here is ending up with the “shiny syndrome”, chasing every fad, or selling during the panic mode of global events.

I have 5 rules to overcome the analysis paralysis + all the surrounding distractions around us.

But before we get there, if LinkedIn is a channel you use for work (or don’t, but understand why it’s critical), here’s my latest podcast episode with Aware’s founder, Alex Boyd :

Strategies, predictions, maximizing efficiency with Aware - this is the go-to podcast for everything you need to know about LinkedIn in 2025.

(Add this to your weekend list or listen in the car.)

And now, back to the five ways to isolate yourself from the ongoing fad outside:

1. Don’t time the market

An old investing adage says that time in the market is far more important than trying to “time the market.”

Different studies show that very, very few individual investors - or even professional brokers - can outpace the S&P 500 index performance. While it’s technically possible to just bet on Tesla or Nvidia or Google and keep pacing 2x to 5x higher for a certain period of time, the global economy will keep expanding - but that’s not always valid for individual stocks.

Nvidia just lost $600 billion in market cap overnight due to China announcing their DeepSeek LLM. Whether that premise is true or not, investing is less about business performance and more about investor confidence in the future premise of a company.

The same fate may follow Tesla in case of dipping sales, or self-driving mode failing to materialize, or a massive safety failure with its batteries. Certain edge cases can never be fully predicted.

And I’m not referring to investing alone; this is just as valid for putting the reps in business, family, hobbies. Pick a small handful of activities you want to commit to for real and don’t look back every few weeks.

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