The times they are a-changin’

Empty streets…shuttered business houses, closed offices & educational institutions….the eerie silence in vacant hotels, desolate beaches & tourist places, deserted ghost towns……the all pervasive fear and despair. This scene out of a sci-fi movie has suddenly become the stark reality of our day. The warriors in their protective gear bearing an uncanny resemblance to space suits, wage a difficult protracted battle as the world lies in limbo. Did we step into a time capsule? Just a short time back weren’t we busy clamouring to fulfill our diverse yet self-serving agendas in a glitzy fast-moving world with promise of instant gratifications?

More than five months now and 5.2 million people are infected globally. Covid19 has wreaked havoc everywhere bringing the world down on its knees. Till date this Grim Reaper has snatched 334,891 lives and more are in peril. Most viruses have a finite mode of transmission but this new microbe is an evil genius with its mind-boggling different modes of transmission, varying incubation period, relapse, resurgence and its still-emerging characteristics. The fact that it jumped species is in itself a rare event. The changing seasons have negligible bearing upon it. The possibility of it spiraling beyond control may introduce questionable solutions like herd immunity which advocates survival of the fittest. The elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions would be left to succumb. In fact herd immunity and co-morbidity seem to have a sinister relationship. Desperate Govts in some parts of the world can subtly promote herd immunity, allow all to get infected and then justify the consequent high mortality with co-morbidity, knowing well enough that no compensation has to be paid for lives lost in this manner.

Mighty economies are falling, countries have closed their borders. Businesses have come to a grinding halt with years of hard work undone. The world economy is shrinking by 3.2%, rapidly hemorrhaging jobs and livelihoods. Covid has taken its toll in terms of deaths & job losses in the western world. However, they have existing robust social security and welfare systems in place. Hence the revival is efficiently managed and will turn the tide. U.S with one of the sharpest scientific minds, could have done better, had critical steps been taken in time. However, the US govt is plugging the gap aggressively. Latin America, particularly in Brazil the cases are mounting and the economy getting battered. In south-east Asia, particularly the developing world including India, the worst may not be over yet. Japan, the 3rd largest world economy has slipped into recession. It however, continues with its project of building smart cities where e-commerce, contactless transactions will protect humans from the scourge of infectious diseases. It is still eager to host the Olympics postponed to next year. China responsible for crippling the world, is already coming out of the shadow of Covid. Strong on fundamentals and authoritarian Govt policies, China also has immense skill, capital and competitive enterprise. No surprise that it has opened domestic tourism and has already recovered 75% of its losses!

The pandemic, although reminiscent of the Great Depression of 1930s, is a catastrophe unparalleled in history. 60 days of Lockdown and still stringent in containment areas, Covid continues its lethal march through India, with 50% of cases in 5 top cities. Physical/social distancing is a casualty in the urban slums, prisons, vegetable markets. Here sharing of small space, toilets and water collection has become the harbingers of spread. Close-contact professionals like police, medical staff, sanitation workers, essential labour & transport staff are falling prey. Rural India has largely been spared so far. Testing is paramount…..the more we test the more we find. In order that testing be adequate, it has to be smart and targeted with abundant diagnostic kits. Pool testing helps save resource & time. Data is crucial to fight Covid. Constant collection & analysis of data identifies the clusters. It also entails the monumental task of contact tracing. India has stepped-up in the manufacture of PPE, swab stick, reliable testing kit and improvised ICU beds. More investment is however needed in public health systems, skilled manpower, elderly care, transparency in the way a covid patient is treated right from the time the patient leaves home. Also, improved social security systems, door-to-door surveillance in hotspots, all quarantine facilities having hygiene & humane approach so that people don’t run and hide. Employers too must now give priority to the health of employees. Amidst the encircling gloom the recovery rate so far is good at 41% and mortality rate 3%. We are also good on food grains and the monsoons are on time. We know the lockdown is a purposeful attempt to slow the virus because we are in the growth stage and haven’t reached the peak. The next two terrible months ahead can put us in the throes of a 2nd deadly wave. Nevertheless, we are committed to make it a slow burn rather than a conflagration.

Under the commendable leadership of the Prime Minister India has fared better in terms of mortality, primarily because it heeded WHO’s warnings timely and proactively stopped the influx of travelers. Testing has improved but still not enough to project the actual spread. Mapping the road to recovery Indian Govt has announced a slew of measures with 20 lakh crore package. Naysayers are calling it the Big Bang Reforms - PM Gharib Kalyan, PM Kisan, Jan Dhan for women, elderly & construction workers, Yojana gas cylinders, MNREGA, Health infrastructure, E-Vidhya Prog, ManoDarpan, Self-Reliant India, Revamping Public sector, Boost to Privatization, IBC Act, Compliance relaxations in Companies Act 2013, Taxation devolution, State Disaster relief Fund Advance, State specific reforms in energy distribution, ease of business, urban local body reform, migrant labour ration card, insurance cover for health workers, virtual learning capacity building, e-pathsala via Skype and SwamPrabha DTH in areas of no internet, Setu app, MSMEs, Street hawkers, Marginal farmers - operation green, animal husbandry, herbal cultivation….the list goes on. The schemes appear familiarly grandiose in print and the numbers sound good. The exercise of ‘putting money in the hands of the poor’ didn’t meet expectations, considering the gridlock on cash flows. Also, the credit supply will have to catch up with demand which is nil now as people don’t have purchasing power. Even if we agree that the fiscal policies and Govt guarantee will give the required stimulus to demand, what has been done to instill confidence in the market? To flood the market with cash, yet no interest-free loans, may not have many takers now when pending wages & overheads have to be paid, albeit RBI reducing interest rates to inject liquidity in the market. We also have to keep in mind that although a pandemic makes all countries take the risk of debt, the cost of borrowing for developing countries like India is higher than for developed countries. Also, synergy and coordination of Union Govt with all states equally (because they do the last-mile delivery) is tantamount to translation of schemes.

The callousness and indifference meted out to the hapless Indian migrant labour is a telling tale of the failure of governance and powers that be. Mid-April lakhs of migrant labour, stranded and wanting to return to their home states, were asked to avail of e-tickets on IRTC site. These gullible guys are familiar with Whatsapp & TikTok but whether all can negotiate their way on a complex site of Indian railways is doubtful. Besides, many couldn’t shell out the fares. Miserable with empty stomach & pockets, they were pushed to the edge by late April. Early May the world watched heart-wrenching media images of them embark on a dehumanizing journey to their homes from their work states……walking in flip-flops on the highways with their families & luggage, hundreds of miles in the summer scorching sun. The way back home gets laden with horrors……blistered feet, gnawing hunger, bewildered children….dozens dying on the roads due to exhaustion….many packed like sardines in trucks & tempos that meet with horrific accidents…..125 such deaths, scores of others with grievous injuries. Some sell their mobiles to raise money and subsequently get fleeced by truck mafias who make them travel covered in tarpaulin atop truck roofs, some others get herded like cattle in lorries and as human cargo hidden inside containers for more than 20 hrs, risking infection and their lives. Clearly something has gone horribly wrong - the initial govt apathy, bureaucratic mess, bizarre slug fest where political adversaries stall and nullify efforts to transport migrants, contradictory orders between two states with no existing central nodal agency dedicated to their safe and dignified return home. Finally we hear the remaining are getting e-registered and Indian Railways will work it out with Ministry of Home in tandem. As the authorities grapple with the scale and logistics, more deaths and injuries follow.

Companies are having to take tough decisions to downsize. The Travel Tourism, Aviation and Hospitality industries have been hit hard, some on the verge of collapse. They can bounce back with a little help from the Govt. US, UK, Australia and Singapore have provided financial aid to these industries but in India they were in for a rude shock when no immediate relief was announced for them. They would probably have to approach banks as MSMEs or wait till further announcements. Till a few months back these sectors which were significant contributors to India’s GDP, forex and employment, are now in the doldrums…..huge revenue losses and staff redundancy leading to massive unemployment.  Always optimistic, the hotels have redefined safety protocols that would instill confidence in guests. Many restaurants are investing in glass partitions and fancy dolls positioned to enliven social distancing. They have learnt to become clinically clean. Lot of research is underway for effective disinfectants, anti-microbial flooring, lining and surfaces' protection in hotels. They are ready to welcome guests when travel commences, albeit restaurant covers will be less, events less crowded, less menus and generally learning to work with less. Fielding questions in a press conference on the Govt measures for Covid, the FM speaking on the migrant crisis, took offence at an opposition leader who had done a photo session with migrants resting on the roadside. Eyes flashing and bristling with seething rage, she snorted “Why did he waste their time talking to them and creating drama? He should have walked along with them, carrying their children and their luggage.” This is indeed a chilling throwback to the French Revolution when Marie Antoinette on being told her people had no bread said, “Let them eat cake!” Many Businesses are supporting the battle against Covid. NGOs, charities and hotels the world over have made herculean efforts to mitigate the sufferings by offering daily meals, groceries, community care and opening Covid dedicated hospitals & science labs. Our heroes are those who are in close-contact profession – the police and the medics in hot, suffocating PPEs for as long as 8-12 hrs. They go out into the storm everyday and stay firm in the line of duty. Individual volunteers and community-driven initiatives are tirelessly raising awareness about Covid.

As lockdown eases and distances open, countries are cautiously inching out in a bid to balance the rickety see-saw of lives and livelihood. Lesser deaths and more recovery is the mantra. Leaders the world over are leading people out of fear so that we can coexist with the virus until the vaccine arrives. Apart from a 100 plus companies running the race for the vaccine, RNA-based vaccine by Moderna in US has had success with its 1st trial and has moved into phase 2. Antiviral drug Remdesivir, hitherto used for HIV, also holds promise. The other glimmer of hope - India all set to open its skies. The frequency is 33% of total domestic flight operations with Covid protocol. International flights will happen only when there is collaboration on quarantine time periods. Flights can be safe with social distancing and disinfecting all touch points. Sitting parallel as we do in flights is safer than sitting face to face, as long you have your armour of masks, face screen, hand hygiene, sanitizers, gloves and goggles. Thankfully the distress in the aligned sectors will reduce because flights will trigger tourism and kickstart hospitality. When we try decode the Covid risk factor we find the spread depends more on human behavior than the risk from an infected person. So, indoor spaces are more susceptible to the spread - home & workplace where there is undetected infection, social & religious gatherings, public transport, restaurants & bars, singing events and all such places - the guard must not be dropped.

How we manage Covid i.e. learn to live with it and not allow it to bring us down, is dependent on the country’s govt policies & their mobilisation, health-care infrastructure, social vigilance systems and our personal discipline & outlook. As our world metamorphoses we find that Covid has influenced every aspect of our lives and changed each one of us. There has been a seismic shift in our expectations, endurance levels and adaptability. Already we have realized health is the driver of the economy. As we bring in more technology and artificial intelligence we become more open to flexible work hours, remote-based work, e-learning and virtual transitions. We also learn to respect other species and their right to space on this planet. If Covid is ravaging the world…..immune to man-made walls of human division & discrimination, then the Global community is also coming together to embrace humanity, share technology & resources, goods & services so that there is more trust and prudent practices in business and lifestyle. Covid has pushed the world to a steep learning curve, bringing about a sea change in values and perception. Each one of us has to get through this transition at our own pace. Opportunities will come when you have invested in change. As we reckon with the fragility of life, we are better off because of what we have experienced.