??? That time when climate change killed 98.7% of us, but we discovered fire. Learnings...

Discover how past climate events shaped human survival and how today’s entrepreneurs are unlocking a climate-resilient future through innovation and climate adaptation.

I’m Djoann Fal. I’m fascinated by our planet, our changing weather, and peaceful, green technological utopias. What began as a career as a technology entrepreneur has become a mission to figure out where we are going , and what solutions are out there, as we leave this long stable climate period and enter the hockey stick, climate change era.

Introduction:

Imagine planet Earth, with many different types of humans, like the diversity of humanoid species in the fantastic realms of Lord of the Rings, with elves, orcs, and dwarves.

So why are humans so genetically similar in our reality on Earth, even though there are nearly 8 billion of us?

The answer lies in a major event from our past when climate change nearly caused the extinction of all humans. Today, we face a similar challenge with modern climate change, and it could “reshape” human life, once again.

Part 1: ?? When Climate Nearly Wiped Us Out.

We usually think of climate change as a modern problem, but it has influenced life on Earth for millions of years.

The Mid-Pleistocene Event (MPE) is one of the most important examples. About 800,000 to 600,000 years ago, a huge volcanic eruption from Mount Toba (in what is now Indonesia) caused a volcanic winter. This was one of the biggest volcanic eruptions in history. It released large amounts of ash and gas into the air, blocking sunlight for years. Temperatures dropped, creating a mini-ice age that lasted for a long time.

For early humans, this was a disaster. The volcanic winter destroyed ecosystems caused widespread famine, and reduced food supplies. As the habitable areas shrank, survival became difficult, and the human population dropped to 1,000 to 10,000 individuals. In other words, 98.7% of humans died, almost wiping out our species.?

So yeah, by definition, this was a time when humanity was an endangered species.

This wasn’t just a small dip in population—it was a genetic bottleneck, a moment that forced humans to either adapt or die out.

The small group of survivors carried a limited set of genes, which reduced the genetic variation we could pass on to future generations. Unlike the diverse species in fantasy worlds like Lord of the Rings, humans came out of this event with much less genetic diversity. This Mid-Pleistocene Bottleneck (MPB) event still affects us today.

Even though humans today come in different shapes, sizes, and colors, we are all very similar at a genetic level. In fact, humans share 99.9% of their DNA. That’s extremely uniform compared to other species, like chimpanzees, which have much more genetic diversity despite their smaller population.

Life has always been shaped by environmental adversity ???

During the MPE, temperature changes were extreme. Ice ages, volcanic eruptions, and shifting ecosystems made Earth a harsh place to live. Resources became scarce, and survival was uncertain. Humans were forced into small, isolated groups, many of which did not survive.

Interestingly, the survivors were not always the strongest or smartest, but rather those who adapted the fastest. It was a battle for survival, and many perished. Only a small, geographically isolated group of humans endured, carrying the genes that would shape the future of humanity.

Widespread Use of Fire: One of the most important adaptations during this time was the mastery of fire, which helped humans survive colder climates. Although early humans had been controlling fire for around a million years, by the time of the MPE, its use had become widespread, providing warmth, protection, and the ability to cook food.

Use of Animal Furs for Clothing: Another key adaptation was the use of animal hides and furs for insulation. With the development of scraping tools, early humans could efficiently process thick animal hides into clothing, blankets, and coverings, which provided crucial warmth in freezing conditions.

Early Human Migration: Some groups also adopted seasonal migration, moving between regions based on resource availability. This mobility greatly increased their chances of survival in a constantly changing environment.

Later on: Invention of Iron: During the Bronze Age Collapse (1200 BC), prolonged droughts and cooling in the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East, evidenced by climate data from tree rings and sediments, led to widespread societal disruptions. From this crisis came the widespread adoption of iron smelting, which replaced bronze and marked the beginning of the Iron Age. This development brought stronger tools and weapons, revolutionizing agriculture and warfare, and setting the stage for future civilizations.

Part 2: What Does the MPE Teach Us About Today’s Climate Crisis?

The Mid-Pleistocene Event (MPE) demonstrates that adaptability is crucial for survival.

In today’s climate crisis—characterized by rising temperatures, sea-level increases, and biodiversity loss—we must not only adapt but innovate. As I explained in my book, The Adaptive Economy ?, the future lies in harnessing technology to respond to these environmental challenges.

“We aren’t just going to survive; we’re on the way to transforming the way we live, work, and sustain our ecosystems.” Djoann Fal

Rethinking Adaptation Through an Adaptive Economy? Lens

Hurricane Helene in 2024 was a catastrophic Category 4 storm that made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region on September 26, with winds reaching up to 140 mph. It caused widespread destruction, particularly in Florida and the southern Appalachian region, resulting in severe flooding, hundreds of fatalities, 40+ deaths, and billions of dollars in damages. It stands as one of the deadliest hurricanes since Hurricane Maria in 2017

Over the past few years, in this newsletter, I emphasized that adaptation is key to overcoming economic, environmental, and technological disruptions in the 21st century. As we face the climate crisis, sectors such as housing, energy infrastructure, agriculture, and logistics will need to incorporate innovation and adaptability to ensure resilience.

1. Adapting Our Built Environment

• Market Size by 2030: $350 billion (Source: McKinsey & Company ) With cities facing increased risks from rising sea levels, heatwaves, and storms, climate-adaptive buildings will be vital. According to a McKinsey report on climate risk and resilience, the market for climate-resilient infrastructure is expected to reach $350 billion by 2030. Innovations like green roofs, energy-efficient materials, and retrofitting technologies will be essential.

• Atlas Capital’s Portfolio Example: Zauben Zauben develops living walls and green roof technologies that enhance urban environments, contributing to climate adaptation by reducing urban heat and improving air quality.

2. Making Energy Climate Change-Proof

• Market Size by 2030: $2 trillion (Source: Bain & Company ) Building climate-resilient energy systems is critical for securing future energy supplies. Bain & Company projects that the renewable energy infrastructure market focused on decentralized and durable solar, wind, and grid solutions, will grow to $2 trillion by 2030. These systems will be essential to withstand extreme weather and protect infrastructure.
• Atlas Capital’s Portfolio Example: Tyfast Energy Tyfast Energy is pioneering fast-charging and durable energy storage solutions, making energy grids more resilient to the pressures of climate change by providing sustainable and efficient power storage.

3. Agriculture Adaptation

• Market Size by 2030: $30 billion (Source: MarketsandMarkets ) Agriculture must quickly adapt to extreme weather conditions like droughts and floods. According to MarketsandMarkets, the agricultural adaptation market, driven by smart farming technologies and resilient crops, will reach $30 billion by 2030. Innovations such as drought-resistant crops and climate-smart farming practices will ensure food security in unpredictable climates.
• Atlas Capital’s Portfolio Example: Avalo AI Avalo AI uses advanced artificial intelligence to optimize crop breeding, ensuring that crops can withstand environmental stresses such as drought and extreme heat.

4. Logistics Adaptation to Climate Change

• Market Size by 2030: $100 billion (Source: Allied Market Research ) Climate change will increasingly disrupt supply chains, demanding AI-driven logistics solutions to predict and respond to weather-induced disruptions. Allied Market Research estimates that the market for logistics and supply chain adaptation to climate-related events will grow to $100 billion by 2030. These innovations will ensure the efficient movement of goods despite environmental volatility.
• Atlas Capital’s Deal Facilitated Example: Twelve Twelve transforms carbon emissions into valuable, usable products such as sustainable aviation fuels, which can be integrated into logistics systems. This innovation helps make supply chains more resilient to climate-related energy disruptions while significantly reducing carbon emissions.

5. Extreme Weather Events Prediction

• Market Size by 2030: $3.3 billion (Source: World Economic Forum ) Innovative weather prediction platforms are revolutionizing how businesses, cities, and industries prepare for climate risks. One standout company is Atmo.AI , which leverages AI to forecast extreme weather events with unprecedented accuracy. As climate-induced disasters become more frequent, tools like these will be critical for anticipating disruptions and mitigating damage.
• Atlas Dealflow Example: Atmo.AI Atmo.AI offers real-time weather prediction services to help industries better prepare for and adapt to climate risks, enhancing resilience across sectors.

6. Climate Insurance for Real Estate

• Market Size by 2030: $60 billion (Source: Bain Insights ) Climate insurance is increasingly necessary to protect real estate assets from the growing threat of climate-related damages. Platforms like Kettle offer cutting-edge insurance products specifically designed to cover properties against wildfire, flood, and other climate-induced hazards, providing a vital safety net as climate risks increase.
• Atlas Dealflow Example: Kettle Kettle is revolutionizing the insurance industry by providing AI-driven climate insurance for real estate, helping property owners mitigate financial losses from extreme weather events.

Conclusions:

For much of the last 10,000 years, our planet’s climate has been remarkably stable in three important ways: temperature, atmosphere carbon dioxide, and sea level.

During this time, the human population went from 20 million to 8 billion. And without preparation for the intensity of the extreme environmental changes to come, this number might change drastically, alongside the trends in the financial markets.

Atlas Capital has been at the forefront of climate adaptation since 2021:

1. Pioneering Thought Leadership: In 2021, we wrote the first book on climate adaptation investment strategy, The Adaptive Economy?, laying out a comprehensive thesis on how investing in adaptive technologies and innovations can address the growing challenges posed by climate change. This early thought leadership set the foundation for understanding the financial and environmental opportunities in climate adaptation, well before mainstream attention shifted towards this critical area.
2. First Investor with a Dedicated Focus: We became the first investment firm to focus exclusively on climate adaptation, committing capital to projects and companies that align with this mandate. By prioritizing investments in sectors such as resilient infrastructure, renewable energy, agriculture, and logistics, we positioned ourselves as the leading investor in solutions designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. This early move allowed us to identify and support pioneering technologies that are now essential in climate resilience strategies across the globe.

These actions cement our leadership in the climate adaptation space, demonstrating a long-term vision that aligns financial returns with global climate resilience efforts.

What future do we want? Climate Entrepreneurs as Modern Prometheans

The Mid-Pleistocene Event reminds us that adversity can often lead to groundbreaking innovation.

In today’s climate crisis, much like in past catastrophic events, survival depends on how quickly we adapt and innovate.

This is not merely a challenge but an extraordinary opportunity for climate entrepreneurs to reshape our future.

Like the Promethean figures of myth who brought fire to humanity, today’s entrepreneurs and innovators wield the tools of a climate-proof built environment, renewable energy abundance, heatwave-resilient agriculture, and new methods to build a more climate-adaptive future.

The transition to an Adaptive Economy? is not just about overcoming the climate crisis—it’s about thriving in a rapidly changing environment.

Entrepreneurs working on climate-resilient homes, decentralized energy grids, resilient agriculture, and sustainable logistics, are leading the way.

These innovations will not only help us mitigate the effects of climate change but also redefine our relationship with the environment, pushing humanity toward a future where both people and the planet can flourish.

The time to act is now. Climate entrepreneurs hold the key to unlocking the resilient future we need, turning the greatest threat of our time into a catalyst for transformation.

Just as the survivors of the MPE rebuilt humanity from the brink of extinction, today’s innovators are poised to lead us into a new era of sustainability and opportunity.

Let this be the moment we seize our collective future and build a world where adaptation is not just necessary, but empowering a new industrial revolution.

If you want to learn more about investing in Adaptation:

https://calendly.com/djoann