Is it time to take a different approach to Covid?

We have to start acting differently to enable the majority of the population return to a relatively normal life.

There’s an accumulation of facts that make me confident there is a better way to deal with Covid than the ‘run and hide’ strategy we’re currently following. It's logical (to me at least) to structure this argument around a number of facts which I will bullet point to demonstrate my proposition.

I was initially motivated to change my thinking after hearing a Radio 5 phone-in that made so much sense, and the more I’ve thought about it, the more sense it makes.

Here are the bullet points of what I believe to be unassailable facts;

• The global reaction to Covid has been one of panic or a ‘run and hide’ strategy where we're all expected to run and hide until the virus goes away, which it wont. The noteworthy exception is the Swedes, whom we all thought were reckless, yet they appear to have had the most satisfactory outcomes.
• The ‘run and hide’ approach is the only option currently in play. As the R goes up, the restrictions increase. When the R decreases, the restrictions are relaxed until the R starts going back up again, and so it goes. It's a yoyo. A strategy with no end driving an ongoing state of confusion, distress, steadily increasing psychological and financial difficulty and a growing disaffection with the 'folks in charge'.
• An effective vaccine won't make the virus disappear. It will continue to exist for the foreseeable future, if not forever, like countless other viruses. The only virus that has ever been effectively wiped out by a vaccine is Small Pox, I believe. 
• Continuing to yoyo the restrictions ad hoc, is an open ended strategy of socio-economic suicide, making the 'run and hide' strategy untenable and unsustainable.
• When the virus emerged, we panicked. A standard human instinct to fear the unknown. We know what viruses are capable of and we soon discovered the worst symptoms of Covid and that it was highly transmissible. But we knew little else of this novel virus and it could pose a real threat to the continuation of human kind for all we knew.
• But things have changed. Now we have enough data to confidently determine who is most at risk. We know the age, gender, race and many other conditions that divides the population quite distinctly into those who need to protect themselves as a matter of life or death, and those for whom Covid poses no more risk than the other common viruses we just get along with.
• There are many causes of premature death which take many more lives on a daily basis than Covid.
• Herd immunity is a real thing.

There is a growing call amongst, authoritative, educated, voices to change our attitude to Covid and bring it more in line with our attitude to other viruses such as flu. Other viruses ebb and flow, usually seasonally, but they never go away. As I understand the basics behaviour of a viruses is that they mutate and return time after time. But we don’t close cities down if a care home has an outbreak of the winter vomiting bug. A flu cluster doesn’t result in pubs closing early or Christmas being cancelled. So why is Covid different?

There are critical differences with Covid of course. I expect the biggest single issue is its virulent speed of transmission: the element we have tried to control. And this is a problem because we have seen it overwhelm hospital capacity with the rate at which it moves. But we’ve responded to this very effectively with strategies such as the yet-to-be-used Nightingale wards.

There is also the most terrifying issue that Covid kills. But so do other viruses and conditions. Many causes of early death are lifestyle related, causes which we bring upon ourselves which also clog up our hospitals. Yet we carry on with our daily lives, accepting these omnipresent risks to life. So why don't we take a similar attitude to Covid?

With the benefit detailed data, we can identify the most vulnerable people based on age, lifestyle, general health, underlying conditions and so on. We can use this data to apply specific direction for those who fall into the identifiable risk categories and ensure they have the highest level of practical protection and minimise their likelihood of becoming infected.

To support those living under these restricted conditions it will be appropriate to provide financial support to those in this category who need it. I personally fall into the higher risk categories because I'm asthmatic and live with a chronic, auto-immune condition. However, I work from home and I'm fit and healthy, so I'm largely unaffected and can carry on my normal life and business with no detriment of income. Therefore I, and many people like me will not require, or be eligible for support payments. Those who do require support payments will qualify by having pre-existing conditions preventing them from working - in which case they may already be receiving support - or will need to apply for payments by proving they meet specific criteria. 

The rest of the population, the greater majority, can then get back to a largely normal life.

Opening everything up will repair the economy more quickly bringing benefit to the majority of the population financially, psychologically and so on.

There is an inevitable degree of risk as we will effectively be saying ‘get out there and share the virus', but risk of death or serious illness from Covid in the non-vulnerable groups is, based on the statistics, acceptably low. I appreciate risk of serious illness and death is what we try avoid at (almost) any cost, but put into context against deaths from the other causes which we accept as a part of modern life, Covid slides a long way down the fatality charts!

In short, we should concentrate on protecting the relatively small, identifiably vulnerable members of society and let everyone else get back to normality.

Based on the stats, I can't see how this isn't a sound strategy. It’s how we lived our lives pre-Covid. A prime example is the established practice of offering older people and those with increased susceptibility, free flu vaccinations every year. We reduce the risk as much as we practically can, then we accept any remaining risk and get on with our lives. That’s exactly how we will, sooner or later re-model our attitude to Covid.

A strategy on these lines will anyone of working age who doesn’t have a relevant pre-existing condition can get back to normal, and that's the great majority of our population. It also allows us humans to engage our natural defences against the virus, something we’re spectacularly good at. The arrival of vaccines arrive will bolster a practical strategy and Covid can then be treated as just another virus and society will be on a swifter road to recovery in every way. The longer we maintain our current strategy, the more damage it will do.