Time to take a 'chill pill'?
The Population Bomb 1968

Time to take a 'chill pill'?

OK I get it, things are warming up, we are to blame (or at least not helping) but we are aware of the situation and trying to rectify things. No need to spread fear and panic.

I'm struck by a sense of deja-vu: When I was in high school in the early 1970s, we were told that the world, then home to about 4 billion people, was at its breaking point. Experts warned that by the end of the 1970s, the planet would face mass starvation. Books like "The Population Bomb" filled my mind with images of a bleak future... Who could not look at the hockey stick population growth and not see the plain truth, that we were on the edge of catastrophe? The preface of the book stated: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. By the end of the 1970s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date, nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate."

Of course, this did not deter the author and others from offering draconian measures on how to mitigate the pending disaster:

Government intervention into how many children a family could have.

Luxury tax on diapers and cribs.

Even putting anti-fertility drugs into the drinking water supply!

What sensible person would even think or dare to bring children into this bleak world where their offspring would most likely die from starvation?

These predictions, though dire and urgent, did not come to pass. Instead, we adapted and thrived, with the global population now at 8 billion in 2024. The doomsayers got it totally wrong. Advances in technology, agriculture, and healthcare have allowed us to support a population double what was once deemed unsustainable. Unfortunately, there are pockets of famine, but these are due to armed conflicts.

There are models for population predictions and as one can imagine with models, many different forecasts. Some predict world population at 15 billion by 2100 and others only 6 billion with forecasts for everything in between... That is a wide gap. But paradoxically, now we face the opposite concern: fears of a POPULATION COLLAPSE due to declining birth rates in many parts of the world.

As a kid, I once believed that the only way to save the world was to prevent more lives from entering it. Had I listened to those doomsayers and decided not to have children, I would have cheated myself out of four great kids and now grandchildren. And now to be told we don't have enough people? Man, I would be kicking myself. Doomsayers have a sense of spectacle. They want to get your attention. Even when they are wrong, they feel that they brought awareness to their cause and that the end justifies the means.

So back to climate change. Once again, we are faced with dire predictions of doom and gloom. Being instilled with a sense of urgency that allows a self-anointed few to think they know best and can dictate to the rest of us. Sure, rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and rising oceans paint a worrying picture of the future. But as we know, many predictions are totally wrong. Technology and human ingenuity will play crucial roles in mitigating the impacts of climate change. Ironically the more minds we bring into the world to work on this the better. Climate activists should be encouraging students to stay in school and get a good education, rather than to skip school and strike. Showmanship and spectacle that has the exact opposite effect of what we need. Silly.

Renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, development of nuclear and research into carbon capture and storage, and ultimately fusion power are just a few examples of how we are already trying to make strides toward a more sustainable future.

Climate change is a formidable challenge, but it is one we will overcome. Just take a deep breath and don't panic. I'm glad I didn't back in the 70's ??


Don McConnell, PE, CEM,CEMI

Engineering Laureate - Energy,Heat Transfer and Sustainability Technology- Water and Protection Business at DuPont

8 个月

Comparing Ehrlich’s population bomb to global climate change is like comparing Little League to the Majors. You need to read the entire series of books on Limits to Growth. From 1972 -2015 the authors ran an updated the “World 3 “ systems dynamics model. It has received praise and derision. However EVERY TIME it’s business as usual scenario has been compared to real data it has been validated. Now to be sure CO2 as an aspect was not initially considered in the original model. But the message is the same finite systems have limits.So people who generally are climate deniers, anti Malthusian, polyanas, or just ignorant will hold up Ehrlich’s book and say “ yeah well l see this guy was wrong.., so climate change is wrong too see, see, see!” Well, no. The science is unassailable, the reaction is “ oh a new business opportunity” and not the existential threat it is. As Paul Martin commented, panic never helps, but neither does “chilling out” This is probably the biggest problem the world has ever faced because we are capable of all acting on it, seeing it’s common threat, and recognizing we as a world are by and large interconnected. Taking a chill pill will not change anything. Working hard to solve it and adjust to it will.

Paul Martin

Chemical process development expert. Antidote to marketing #hopium . Tireless advocate for a fossil fuel-free future.

8 个月

Panic never helps. We need sober, clear thinking. But while hopefulness is a good mindset, generally, it must be founded similarly in a sober view of reality, not the notion that things just sort themselves out without people working hard to fix real problems. AGW is real. We know what's causing it- we're causing it. And while there is hope for humankind to mitigate the causes by switching our ENTIRE ECONOMY to new, lower emission forms of energy production and consumption, it's not a trivial problem. It won't solve itself. By the way, the population explosion didn't happen for reasons we didn't understand, and it didn't "solve itself", either. We know WHY fertility rates are dropping, and again this didn't happen without people working hard, every day, solving real problems of importance to human thriving. https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/global-warming-risk-arises-from-three-facts-paul-martin/

Alvin Zhang, MBA, CFA, FRM

Investment Lead, Bruce Power Investment Fund and Treasury

8 个月

Well said!

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Paul MacDonald

Senior Project Manager / Operations support / Corporate Safety Manager

8 个月

Great read Marc!!

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Thomas Baldt

Waste Engineer | Entrepreneur | Investor

8 个月

Thanks for your post Marc Couturier.That went down with me very well. Absolutely agree with you. Alarmism has never been helpful. We will rise up to the challenge and solve the issues.

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