Time to Replace? The Legacy Techs That Refuses to Die

In the whirlwind of technological evolution, especially since the AI frenzy of 2022, there's a palpable fear among humans: the fear of obsolescence. We dread the death of our skills and the need to adapt to every shiny new trend. But here's the truth: adaptation doesn’t mean abandoning the past. In fact, the old technologies—the ones that refuse to die—prove this better than anything.

Before you start believing all the hype about AI or no-code replacing developers, let’s take a closer look at what’s really happening. If we can't even replace languages like COBOL, which are supposedly obsolete, how on earth will we replace human developers? Let's dive into the world of legacy tech that, despite all odds, continues to thrive.

COBOL and Mainframes: The Dinosaurs That Won't Go Extinct

In the pulsating heart of the financial sector, you'll find a technology that's older than your grandma's favorite recipe—COBOL. Short for Common Business Oriented Language, it emerged in the late 1950s, emphasizing clarity and ease of understanding. Picture this: banks, insurance firms, and government institutions humming along, powered by mainframe systems that manage mission-critical applications and mind-boggling volumes of data.

Mainframes, the behemoths of the computing world, are renowned for their durability, security, and exceptional data processing capabilities. They've been around since before PCs and servers were even a twinkle in Silicon Valley's eye. With hot-swappable CPUs, RAM, and hard drives, these machines are built with redundancy in mind. In 2024, they still process a substantial chunk of global financial transactions and the hardware is still upgraded, integrating cutting edge technologies, like machine learning for fraud detection.??

IBM is still manufacturing mainframes, and they don’t look like retro computers. 256 cores and Terabytes of RAM with built-in AI inference chips.?

Migrating to a Modern Stack? Not So Fast

You might think, "Why not migrate these old systems to modern platforms?" Well, hold your horses. First off, there's a severe shortage of engineers skilled in these legacy technologies. COBOL isn't exactly the hot topic in computer science classes these days, and with mainframes costing a cool $300k, universities aren't lining up to teach students on them.

What complicates the shortage even further is that COBOL engineers are in high demand—but primarily senior developers with years of experience maintaining legacy systems on complex mainframe hardware. Junior developers, on the other hand, have little incentive to enter this ecosystem. They aren't drawn to a field where they can only manage old technologies rather than innovate, which exacerbates the talent gap as senior engineers retire without a new generation to take their place. This reluctance makes finding fresh talent for legacy systems a growing challenge.

Then there's the risk. Mainframes are so deeply entrenched in banks' operations that any disruption could lead to financial catastrophes and security nightmares. We're talking millions of lines of code that need translating from a system that works perfectly into a solution that's, well, unproven.

And the cherry on top? Banks have little incentive to undertake this daunting task. The costs and risks far outweigh the benefits, especially when the existing systems, though outdated, continue to perform reliably.

PHP: The COBOL of the Web

Meet the modern-day COBOL of the web—PHP and its sidekick, WordPress. Powering approximately 43% of all websites, WordPress is a titan in the internet's infrastructure. A significant portion of e-commerce relies on WooCommerce, a WordPress plugin, further cementing its importance. PHP powers 74% of the web!

https://w3techs.com/technologies/overview/programming_language

But transitioning from these established technologies to newer ones? That's a risky business. The sheer scale of websites and businesses depending on PHP and WordPress means any updates or migrations could lead to significant disruptions, data loss, and financial risks. So, despite the allure of modern alternatives, the maturity and reliability of these platforms create a strong disincentive for change.

JavaScript: The Next PHP

JavaScript is poised to become the next PHP in the web development world. A decade ago, the JavaScript ecosystem was a battleground of frameworks—Angular, Vue, Ember, React—all vying to succeed jQuery. React emerged victorious, becoming the go-to framework for web development. Today, most web applications rely heavily on React, ensuring its presence for the foreseeable future.

Even if a new web language emerges in the next 15 years, JavaScript will likely evolve into a legacy system requiring ongoing maintenance and expertise. Despite attempts to replace it, JavaScript's entrenched position ensures it will remain a critical component of web development, much like PHP before it.

The Myth of Replacing the OGs

So, you might think, "Great! These technologies are here to stay. As engineers age, the need to replace them becomes urgent. An opportunity to maintain legacy software arises, and you can make your mark and earn a killer compensation, right?"

Not so fast. Maintaining a system relies heavily on your knowledge of that system. While senior COBOL engineers command respectable salaries, they don't quite match the compensation of senior engineers at AI companies. And if you're a junior, you probably don't want to maintain an old system. You want to innovate, to work on something exciting. If you're hunting for the money, follow the VC trail—as of October 2024, it's still AI.

JavaScript, Python and Rust are where the developers want to go, not COBOL or Fortran.?

https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2023/#section-admired-and-desired-programming-scripting-and-markup-languages

Legacy technologies might not be sexy, but they're the backbone of our digital world. They're the old, reliable workhorses that keep the wheels of industry turning. So, let's give them the respect they deserve. After all, they're not going anywhere anytime soon.

The Future Is a Mix of Old and New

As we stand on the edge of yet another tech revolution, the future seems both thrilling and uncertain. But one thing is clear: legacy systems aren’t going anywhere. They are the backbone of industries, from banking to the web. While new technologies may reshape the landscape, they won’t replace everything. The old and the new will continue to coexist, with developers playing a crucial role in maintaining both.

So, the next time someone tells you developers will be replaced, just remember: if we’re still relying on 60-year-old technology to run the world, do you really think a few lines of AI or no-code will change that overnight?