Time to Pull the Plug

Last night I noticed that restaurant food prices in Bay Area have already started deflating. Will recession be far? It's time for LPs to pull their money out of VCs and pull the plug to crash the startup economy. It's time to take profits and go for safety. AI and innovations are all rhetoric for market makers to make more profits. The world would be just fine without 99.9% so called startups. Even if we get one last leg up in the markets, it's not gonna last beyond a few weeks. Sooner or later, a recession is going to happen, and sooner the less severe and the better, the later the worse, just like an athlete addicted to steroids that make the athlete never feel tired again... There is not such thing as a "soft landing".

For the sake of mocking MMT and the so called "Opportunity Economy" con artists led by one of the presidential candidates, to reuse my picture from almost 4 years ago after I called the big inflation cycle coming, just to make a point that the "water sink" analogy of the MMT and "Opportunity Economy" con artists likely ends up turning into a toilet and flushing the entire American prosperity down.

From 2 days ago, my thoughts:

1. 5.25% base interest rate is too low. 8% sounds about right.

2. Worrying about crashing the economy? Since when did recessions ever cease to exist in human economy? Is this some sort of Nobel Prize chasing, or some crazy experiment, by the MMT and the so called "Opportunity Economy" crowd? It's better to have a moderate recession now, instead of a much worse one years later just like athletes overdosed with steroids who never feel tired again.

3. VCs and startup funding? In my honest opinion regardless of self interests, it's time for LPs to pull the plug and pull their money all out of of the so called VCs except the top few such as Sequoia and A16Z. 80~90% VCs couldn't even beat Nasdaq index, and why should LPs diversify assets into a Loser Basket? Yes, I said it, as a whole the asset class of startup equities have been a Loser Basket if we talk about the average or even the 80 percentile, in comparison with Nasdaq and S&P500 index investing, even during the recent booming years. So what will happen during the dooming years coming? Why give money to those over-marketing money managers who call themselves "VC" and charge much higher fees and carries than a typical Wall Street fund? Angel investors on the other hand, can do whatever they want with their money to feel worthwhile, and thus I believe their passion and existence are worthy. Yes, it's time to crash the startup industries and let reality weigh in so long as LPs aren't anti-wealth or hate money, and if a million startup founders appear to swim naked then let them swim naked so that they can find something better to do. Those startups who are truly worth to exist will continue on. The US and the world would be just fine without 99% of the so called AI startups or AI innovations, which have become almost like a religion in social media, Wall St, and corporate boardrooms.

4. Real estate, both commercial and residential, will have a very bad time in the years coming. Stop buying houses for investing purposes.

5. With both candidates appeasing to the Bitcoin crowd, now there are more reasons to believe that the crypto folks will have their 2008 moment just like mortgages. I've been calling crypto staking a scam from day 1, just like subprime mortgage lending, and I continue to make this assertion.

Time will tell.