Time To Pay Attention To Crypto?

A month ago I attended the Blockchain Futurist Conference and among the admittedly interesting mix of Fringe and Finance people I decided that Crypto may finally be maturing enough to take seriously.

Cryptocurrency is one of those topics that has been grossly over-hyped for far too long. The big question being: is Crypto like 3D printing (just too soon) or like Terence Trent D'Arby (never going to matter)?

Until now, nothing has made you roll your eyes all the way to the back of your head like being asked if you own any Bitcoin.

The big question: Where will cash be in 100 years?

Here's what I think.

Undeniably, the time of physical cash is slowly coming to end. While this will not be the end of government currencies, it WILL be the end of the bills, coins and cards creating that George Costanza wallet in your pocket. A logical next step after that will be that the central banks will slowly move towards issuing, slightly more decentralized private blockchains using a digital form of their own currency. In-fact, this is already being observed in the Caribbean, where a Barbados start up bitt, has recently started a pilot with the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank to trial a digital currency known as the EC dollar (DXCD). This is the ECCBS first step on a move towards a cashless society as outlined in their strategic plan 2017-2021, and if successful may be the first central bank in the world to launch a digital currency.

Payments (including international payments) will no longer have wait times. Money will move in real time and be easy to send irrespective of government or economic infrastructure. While there may be monitoring of transaction on government/corporate blockchains, there will be ways to transfer money both domestically and internationally, without the need of middlemen.

Finally, and maybe most controversially, currencies will become more decentralized as technology begins to allow individuals to put their assets into currencies that aren't as susceptible to shifts in foreign exchange rates.

"Well begun is half done." - Aristotle

Some of the biggest brands in the world are now starting to dip their toes into the industry with stable coins (Facebook), Investment products (Intercontinental Exchange) and custody service (Fidelity Investments). These changes lead to the logical conclusion that there is an imminent paradigm shift coming which will completely change the way we think of value, and the way in which we exchange value.

Until now Crypto has mostly been a speculative investment tool or a way to avoid traceable money trails for illicit and non-illicit transactions. A few key barriers have stifled mass adoption:

1. Difficulty of access
2. Difficulty of use/liquidity
3. Lack of trust
4. Lack of a key benefit in stable economies

All of these barriers are beginning to be addressed.

• Large corporations like Facebook with massive global reach will offer coins like Libra which will address both the access and trust barriers. Further, allowing these platforms to also serve as places to spend coins globally will address the liquidity issue.
• Stable coins specifically will address the trust issue. Other trusted corporations will quickly follow-suit and offer their own coins.
• New options like ATM type machines will address the access issue.
• Aggregators and exchanges like Spedn are addressing the liquidity issue.
• Other platforms like Shopify are creating retail partnership networks that allow for better liquidity of crypto.
• Perhaps most importantly, the key benefits will become more apparent as wealthy citizens in countries that have unstable economies or low value currencies will quickly adopt and then participate in global exchange through global platforms (like Facebook, Instagram, and even LinkedIn). In-turn those in stable economies who wish to access this trade will also need to participate in crypto markets.

As mass adoption quickly grows the already sizeable $260 Billion market cap for cryptocurrencies, consolidation and shake-out + increased regulation and participation from credit issuers are sure to closely follow.

All of these factors seem to indicate that change is likely coming sooner than you may realize and that it may be time we all open our eyes and stop rolling them when we see the next headline proclaiming that "Crypto Is Coming".