Time for a Little Faction !!!!

As we await the publication of the Doomsday Clock new setting today, I’d like to take a little time to reflect on the world as it could be.

Back in 1970s and 1980s when growing up, the ever present threat of nuclear weapons was obvious to us all. I loved my science fiction escapism but somewhere around the late 1980’s I read Tom Clancy’s “ Red Storm Rising ”. I loved the story but most of all I loved the reflection on real life and a possible scenario of NATO entering a conflict with Russia.

Then in the 2015, a tv show was released showing the Russian Occupation of Norway (Occupied ). Again the realism of the scenario and the lack of response on behalf of so called allies made me realise that the world wasn’t as aligned as it had been in the 1980’s.

Today as we wait on the outcome of the board’s decision on where to set the Doomsday clock, we face a real life scenario of these faceoffs. Now forty years older, and probably not a lot wiser , I find myself worrying for my kids future and for an island like Ireland on the periphery of Europe.

I’ve written on the subjects of supply chain , logistics and procurement for some time and on here have published a few small blogs. Today is the day for a bit of fun but also maybe to take stock of where we are, and maybe pause about where we want to be in the future.

I’ve mentioned previously the strategic importance of Ireland as a possible access to Europe through an integration of rail and ports and a single economic entity in the past. But putting another spin on it, the strategic importance of Ireland in the context of Atlantic airspace and sea routes is fairly significant, particularly for NATO and the UK. Ireland's geographical position makes it a crucial player in the control and security of the North Atlantic region. However, it's important to note that Ireland maintains a policy of military neutrality and is not a member of NATO, though it has some level of cooperation with the alliance.

Ireland's airspace and waters have been described as Europe's 'open flank' due to the country's limited defence capabilities, particularly in air and maritime defence. This situation leaves the region potentially vulnerable to threats and challenges in terms of air and sea security. Historically, there has been a 'secret pac t' between the UK and Irish governments, allowing the RAF to intervene in Irish airspace in the event of a threat. This arrangement highlights the strategic importance of Ireland in the defence of the North Atlantic region, especially in scenarios where external military forces might seek to exploit these vulnerabilities.

Despite Ireland's rich military tradition and the high regard in which its soldiers are held, the country invests a relatively small proportion of its GDP in defence . This underfunding has led to a situation where Ireland's armed forces are not fully equipped to detect or respond to intrusions into its airspace or territorial waters. This lack of capability directly impacts the security of Europe's north-western flank. Efforts have been made to improve Ireland's ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) and cyber capabilities, and some new equipment purchases have been planned, but significant gaps remain.

But let’s take it a stage further for fun and put ourselves in a Clancy-esque world, where tensions in Europe have escalated sharply, with a non-NATO bloc seeking to challenge NATO's dominance and disrupt its strategic lines of communication across the North Atlantic. Ireland, due to its strategic location and its policy of military neutrality, becomes a target for a rapid and decisive takeover.

Phase 1: Preparation and Covert Insertion (48 hours before D-Day)

• Cyber Operations: A coordinated cyber-attack disrupts Ireland's communication, surveillance, and defence systems, severely limiting its ability to respond effectively.
• Special Forces Insertion: Elite special forces units are covertly inserted into Ireland, using civilian disguises and blending in with regular traffic and transport. Their objectives include reconnaissance, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and preparation for the main assault.
• Disinformation Campaign: A sophisticated disinformation campaign is launched to sow confusion and misdirect Irish defence forces and the international community about the true intentions of the non-NATO force.

Phase 2: Rapid Assault and Seizure of Key Points (D-Day)

• Airborne and Amphibious Assault: In the early hours, a massive airborne and amphibious assault is launched. Paratroopers and marine units rapidly seize control of airports, ports, and critical infrastructure.
• Decapitation Strikes: Precision strikes, possibly using drone swarms and special forces, target military command centres and government buildings in Dublin, aiming to cripple the leadership and command structure.
• Rapid Deployment of Ground Forces: Troop carriers and fast transport vessels deliver thousands of soldiers to secured ports and airfields. Armoured units and mobile infantry rapidly fan out to take control of major urban centres and communication hubs.

Phase 3: Consolidation and Establishment of Control (24-72 hours after D-Day)

• Establishment of a Provisional Administration: A temporary military administration is set up to control key government functions and communication channels.
• Control of Media and Information: Media outlets are seized or shut down, and a strict information control regime is established.
• Securing the Perimeter: Naval vessels and submarines patrol the Irish coastline to intercept any counter-offensive or reinforcement attempts.

Challenges and Realities

• International Response: Such an invasion would likely trigger a significant international response, including possible military intervention by NATO forces.
• Logistical and Tactical Challenges: The logistics of transporting, supplying, and coordinating such a large force within a short timeframe are immense and complex.

Of course In a Tom Clancy-style narrative, this scenario would likely be just the opening gambit in a larger, more complex geopolitical thriller, involving espionage, military engagements in other theatres, and a high-stakes diplomatic crisis.

The worrying part about such a scenario is that with the under investment in our Defence Forces for the past decades we are facing a scenario whereby there would be no defence possible. What’s worse is that what was shown in the TV series “Occupied” would possibly be mimicked here, with the possible International response is limited to

1. Immediate Condemnation: NATO and its member countries would likely issue immediate and strong condemnations of the invasion, calling it a violation of international law and Irish sovereignty.

2. Diplomatic Efforts: There would be an intense diplomatic effort to resolve the situation, involving the United Nations, the European Union, and other international bodies. NATO would likely work closely with these organizations to coordinate a response.

3. Military Readiness and Defense Posture: NATO forces, particularly those of neighbouring countries like the UK, might be put on high alert. Military surveillance and reconnaissance in the region would likely be increased to monitor the situation closely.

4. Economic Sanctions and Political Isolation: NATO members, possibly in coordination with other international partners, could impose economic sanctions against the aggressor, aiming to pressure them into withdrawing.

5. Consultation and Planning: Given that Ireland is not a NATO member, the alliance would have to consider its next steps carefully. This would involve consultations among NATO members to plan a coordinated response, which could range from continued diplomatic pressure to military options.

6. Assessment of Treaty Obligations: While Ireland is not under NATO's collective defence umbrella, an unprovoked attack on a European nation could be seen as a threat to the broader stability and security of the region. NATO members would assess their obligations under various treaties and international laws.

7. Potential Military Response: While direct military intervention would be a last resort, NATO could prepare for various military responses, especially if the situation escalates or poses a direct threat to NATO members or European security.

8. Support for Resistance: If there is a local resistance movement in Ireland against the occupying force, NATO countries might provide covert support to these groups, similar to historical precedents.

9. Long-term Strategic Reassessment: Such an event would likely lead to a significant reassessment of NATO's strategic posture in Europe, possibly leading to permanent changes in defence planning, military deployments, and alliance structures.

10. Engagement with Ireland: NATO would likely maintain close communication with whatever remains of the Irish government or its representatives, offering support and seeking guidance on how they wish the international community to respond.

We would be on our own, in essence with little or no support. The threat of nuclear deterrence would in itself restrain any other nation taking any overt action.

As I said , today is day for faction , a little bit of fiction and some facts. There is a wider debate to had in Ireland about where we see ourselves in this world, but as the Doomsday clock ticks down we should not be reluctant or afraid to have these debates.