Time for an Environment Party in India?

The TERI Environment survey of 2015 focussed on India's cities reported that a massive 72 % of respondents (across all income groups) believe that climate change has a direct impact on all of us.

Air Quality and Tree Cover -About 62% of respondents reported that there was a significant deterioration in the air quality and an equal % felt that there was a deterioration in tree cover in their areas.

Drinking Water - There was mixed feedback with 36% of respondents reporting better availability while 30% also reported a deteriorating availability of water. 29% of respondents reporting better quality of water while 40% also reported deteriorating quality of water

Govt role: The Government's role was seen as positive only on water availability with 25% reporting a positive Government role. The worst criticism is reported on Air quality with less than 10% seeing a positive role. 

When asked what the Government should prioritize, a whopping 25% of respondents said that the Government should prioritize environment over development. Only 16% respondents said that the Government should prioritize development over environment

Interestingly, the role of Municipal Corporations are seen as most important is managing environment related issues with 42% reporting it as the top Government entity working to fix the environment. 20% of voters saw they themselves as playing an important role in fixing the environment. The State and Central Governments were seen only by about 20% of the respondents as the top Government entity working to fix the environment. This is reflected in the CSDS Lok Sabha post-poll survey where only 0.1% of reported environment as the top issue in the Lok Sabha election in 2014. 

In 2010, about 620000 premature deaths occurred due to air pollution (Particulate and Indoor)  in India.

Current Party View: In the Delhi election for example, parties did talk about reducing air pollution but it was not a significant campaign topic. The PM does talk about the environment often and there has been some emphasis by this Government on reducing the share of coal based plants in overall power generation along with increased usage of LPG cylinders (to reduce inside home pollution). However, the Government efforts on cleaning up rivers  and protecting tree covers has not been very positive. The Government spent just 5% more on the environment ministry in 2015-16 versus 2014-15. The opposition parties too have not played up the environment issue significantly. 

International learnings: Green parties have had mixed success and particularly so in affluent countries. One of the most successful Green parties in the world is The Greens in Germany which have been a part of the Federal Govt and won about 8.4% of the vote in the 2013 national election. 

So the big question, is there an opportunity for a environment party in India?

The Answer is Yes and here are the reasons why that is the case

a. Environment issues are seriously impacting the lives of average Indians and particularly so in Urban India. The fact that only 19% of respondents of respondents think development should be prioritized over environment while 25% think the exact reverse is good evidence of this becoming a big issue amongst voters

b. The size of the Global middle class in India is growing and with growth pegged at around 7-8%, the size of this middle class will probably double or triple in the next 8 years. Many of these voters will increase place higher emphasis given the serious health issues as well as the impact of the lives of their children in the near future. They are likely to be far open to environment related messages whether from the mainstream parties or niche parties.

c. While Delimitation will dramatically change the share of Cities only in 2032, urbanisation will continue to expand into numerous rural and semi-urban belts around the main cities and towns making up for nearly 38% of the voters in 2025. This group of voters will place significantly more emphasis on environment leading to impact of environment on electoral outcomes. 

d. The data seems to suggest that environment issues could be of very high importance at the local government level and probably of much less influence at the national level. Also, at the local government level (in cities) 100% of the voters are in an urban locality facing most of the above issues. Therefore, one can safely say that environment issues are likely to be important most in Municipal elections immediately and gradually expand to be important in both State and National elections over the next 10-15 years with the biggest impact likely in the 2034 National election. 

While environment focussed parties are unlikely to win a majority on their own, a cleverly crafted environment focussed party can have a significant impact on how other parties are currently conducting themselves on these issues. Further, such a well crafted party can win significant number of seats to be a junior coalition partner in many Cities and States and eventually at the Central level. India's huge income variance and share of population in rural areas would make it difficult for mainstream parties to fully shift their attention to an environment focussed electoral offer. 

The time for an environment based party has come, anybody game?

PS: Environment is a collective effort and it is probably time to revisit our habits that are making it difficult to sustain the Earth's environment. In the past, the discussion was on the impact of our Children but as the dramatic changes in weather show, climate change is already upon us.