Timber Trends Week 52: Log price rising, 2025 trend?

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Industry Overview

The wood and timber sector is navigating significant market shifts, with varied pricing trends across regions and increased regulatory scrutiny. On the innovation front, modular timber systems and sustainable forestry practices continue to gain traction, while demand for mass timber remains robust despite supply chain challenges. Policy changes such as proposed tariffs in the US, are set to impact global trade dynamics in the coming year.

Market Updates

European Market: Rising Log Prices and Regional Variations

• Sweden: Mellanskog has announced a significant log price increase of 100 SEK/m3 (approximately €9). Pine log prices now range from 735–1,175 SEK (€64–102), while spruce logs are priced at 735–1,110 SEK (€64–97) per cubic meter. This move reflects strong demand, particularly in Central Sweden, driven by increased sawmill production. Source
• Austria: Softwood sawlog prices increased slightly in December outside calamity-affected regions, with spruce A/C 2b+ logs ranging between €95 and €115 per cubic meter. Demand for larch remains strong due to the limited availability of Siberian larch. However, hardwood markets, particularly oak and ash, are starting to feel the effects of reduced construction activity. Source
• Finland: Pine log prices are nearing €80/m3, with spruce and birch logs priced at €82.46 and €64.77/m3, respectively. Total timber purchases have increased by over 5 million cubic meters compared to last year, reflecting strong industrial demand. Source

Global Trends in Exports and Imports

• US to China: Exports of logs from the US to China surged by 33% in November, signaling strong demand recovery. Source
• Australia to China: Wood chip exports from Australia to China decreased by 7% in November, reflecting subdued demand. Source
• Latvia: Plywood exports are on the rise, continuing a trend of increased demand for engineered wood products. Source

China:

Softwood log demand in China remains subdued, with stable inventory levels impacting the global market.

Policy and Regulation

Sweden: Compensation for Forestry Operations

Sweden is proposing financial compensation and streamlined rules to support forestry operations, aiming to balance economic and environmental considerations. Source

US Market: Tariff Threats and Price Implications

The US is facing potential tariff hikes on wood product imports, with proposed increases of up to 60% for imports from China, 25% for Canada and Mexico, and 10% for other nations. These changes could disrupt supply chains and lead to higher domestic wood prices, potentially impacting construction and manufacturing sectors. Source

Technology and Innovation

Modular Timber Skyscrapers

A team from Graz University of Technology has unveiled the world’s first modular timber skyscraper system. Known as MOHOHO, the system uses cross-laminated timber (CLT) and glulam components to create scalable and sustainable high-rise buildings. This innovation could redefine urban construction by reducing carbon footprints and enabling easy disassembly. Source

Scottish Water’s Timber Kiosks

Scottish Water is replacing traditional glass-reinforced plastic kiosks with modular timber structures. These kiosks are fully recyclable and reduce embodied carbon emissions by 74%, showcasing the potential of timber in infrastructure projects. Source

Outlook for the Coming Week and 2025

The focus remains on navigating regulatory changes and monitoring the ripple effects of proposed US tariffs on global trade. With sustained demand for engineered wood products and rising log prices, supply chain strategies will be critical for industry players. Innovations in modular timber construction and circular forestry practices are likely to gain further traction, presenting new opportunities for sustainable growth.

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