Tighter immigration rules
Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. I’m Emily Goldberg, the FT’s US newsletter editor. Today we’ll:
US voters continue to rank immigration as a top issue in determining their vote for president, according to recent polling. Since this is expected to favour Donald Trump in November, Joe Biden has been feeling the pressure to take a tougher stance.
He’s getting criticism not only from Republicans, but also from some Democrats in border states. The executive order issued earlier this week is the latest attempt to counteract that. But if politicians follow through on the tougher immigration restrictions some voters are asking for, what could the economic implications be?
Last month, US business groups warned that any crackdown on immigration would limit their ability to operate in a tight labour market . And despite concerns about competition, economic research has shown that waves of immigration have had little impact on the wages of native-born workers.
As Ruchir Sharma wrote in an opinion piece in the FT earlier this year, a growing US labour force, including new immigrants, helped fend off a widely expected recession . This all makes some US voters’ desire to slow immigration feel a little like a double-edged sword.
Notably, Biden’s recent executive order deals specifically with asylum seekers. Since migrants applying for asylum have to wait 150 days before applying for a work permit,?we are unlikely to see any impact on the job market for at least six months.
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Trump, if re-elected, has proposed anti-immigration plans that include a mass deportation scheme and the use of the military to enforce his policies.
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Behind the scenes
Earlier this week, Martin Wolf interviewed Robert Kagan, a neoconservative scholar and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, on his podcast about the state of democracy.
In case you didn’t have the chance to listen to it or read the transcript in full , I wanted to draw attention to part of their conversation. It’s especially relevant in light of Biden’s trip to Europe this week, where he is expected to reinforce America’s commitments abroad. . . . Register for the FT to keep reading the newsletter for free .
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