In tight race in New Hampshire, Haley and Trump struggle with America's Civil War legacy

New Hampshire?is the fifth smallest state in the United States, lying in the?New England?region of the?America’s Northeastern corner. With a population of ?1,377,529 residents (2000 census) New Hampshire's political culture is captured in its?motto, "Live Free or Die", which reflects its role in the?American Revolutionary War.

In the American Civil War (1861-1865), New Hampshire fielded 31,650 enlisted soldiers and 836 officers in the war for the Union.[1] ?New Hampshire's?5th New Hampshire Volunteer Infantry had the highest number of battle-related deaths of any Union regiment.

Since its admission to statehood in 1788,?New Hampshire?has participated in every U.S. presidential election.

Since?1952, the New Hampshire primary election, at which voters choose delegates to the?Democratic?and?Republican?national conventions which in turn choose the party nominees for the?presidential elections?to be held the subsequent November, has been a major testing ground for candidates for both party’s nominations.

Under state law, officially recognized parties may hold a state-sanctioned primary. Currently, only the Democratic and Republican parties meet the State’s criteria for holding presidential primary elections. The New Hampshire Primary will be held on January 24, 2024.

Given the State’s strong abolitionist tradition and allegiance to the cause of the Union, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s failure to mention “slavery” when asked to identify the cause of the American Civil War caused a stir in political circles, as she was campaigning in New Hampshire for the Republican presidential nomination.

Twelve hours later, Haley walked back her omission, saying “Of course the Civil War was about slavery…a stain on America.”[2]

The New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s largest and only statewide circulated newspaper, in an interview with Haley published on January 4, 2024, did not raise the question about the cause of the Civil War.[3]

Former president Donald Trump, in remarks at a campaign rally in Newton,?Iowa, ahead of the state’s caucuses on January 15, claimed the Civil War “was something that could’ve been negotiated.” Trump also failed to mention slavery as the issue behind the Civil War.

Former Republican Representative Liz Cheney, writing on X, asked: “Which part of the Civil War ‘could have been negotiated’? The slavery part? The secession part? Whether Lincoln should have preserved the Union?”[4]

The two most recent New Hampshire primary polls show Donald Trump hanging on to a slender four point leader over Nikki Haley – with Trump at 37% and Haley at 33% (American Research Group, December 27-January 3) and Trump at 31% and Haley at 27% (American Research Group, December 14-December 20) among 600 Likely Voters canvassed in each poll.?

Both leads fall within the polls’ margins of error.[5]

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[1] Bruce D. Heald,?New Hampshire and the Civil War: Voices from the Granite ?(History Press, 2012).

[2] Meg Kinnard (December 28, 2023). Nikki Haley doesn’t mention slavery when asked what caused the Civil War. She later walks that back. https://apnews.com/article/haley-election-civil-war-slavery-a509ff9d7cc5e271c42592276b75735c

[3] Kevin Landrigan (January 4, 2024). Nikki Haley says pardon Trump, secure the borders, stand with Ukraine. New Hampshire Union Leader. https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/voters/nikki-haley-says-pardon-trump-secure-the-borders-stand-with-ukraine/article_3a297700-ab61-11ee-953c-2ff7fd42c4e2.html

[4] Oliver O'Connell (January 6, 2024). Trump faces backlash for saying American Civil War ‘could’ve been negotiated’. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-civil-war-negotiated-b2474401.html

[5] FiveThirtyEight / ABC News (Ianuary 3, 2024). Latest Polls. Polls ending on Jan. 2, 2024. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-hampshire/. Accessed on January 7, 2024.