The tides have turned on same-sex marriage

N.B. This article was first published on the ABC's The Drum in 2014. Saved here for posterity.

There is a seismic shift towards same-sex marriage in Australia and despite the confected debates over the issue, we will inevitably march towards this important equality, writes Jim Reed.

One of the most exciting things about politics is the fight. I don't mean the day-to-day bickering, the leadership showdowns or even the entertaining rhetoric. I mean the great fights of values and ideas.

But equally exciting for me as a long-time watcher of public opinion are the things in politics that transcend the need for conflict. These are the "no-brainers" that parties and politicians come to realise are not worth a fight; that there is no argument, that there is no political angle; only the inevitable shifting weight of public sentiment.

Why do I raise this? Rare as these shifts are, I see one going on right now. Such change is often played out in glacial slow motion, and we can be forgiven for missing it when we are all too caught up in the theatre of Parliament, international events or our own daily lives.

But the change is there nevertheless, and a poll conducted on behalf of Australian Marriage Equality (by my company) confirms it.

We asked a representative sample of 1,000 Australians whether they supported or opposed the legalisation of same-sex marriage. A whopping 72 per cent agreed with this proposal; 48 per cent strongly of this opinion.

The fact that nearly three-quarters support allowing gay couples to marry is exciting in itself - rarely do you get such a clear-cut endorsement. But the really exciting part is the long-term trend; support rising steadily from just 38 per cent when Newspoll first posed the question a decade ago.

Support for same-sex marriage has doubled since 2004, and is still rising. The seismic shift in public attitudes towards marriage equality is undeniable. Almost everyone agrees that this is the right thing to do, so where's the need to have a grand fight on this issue?

Unfortunately, my experience in politics tells me that some people interested in preserving the status quo - whether they be journalists, lobbyists, politicians or religious leaders - will try to manufacture a fight. Why? Because there is no decent argument against same-sex marriage.

Does it devalue existing marriages? No. Does it deny people the right to believe in a god? Will churches be compelled to perform gay ceremonies? Of course not.

Our poll shows that few really believe these things, because the truth is that the issue only affects gay people.

When you have no rational case to argue you must resort to emotional division. Confected conflict breeds heated debate where none is needed, conflict divides and delays when working together is what is called for. In fact, I can foresee many of their arguments now.

Some will say that younger people might agree, but older people or married couples won't. Our poll challenges this assumption. Married people, those with children at home and those aged 55 years or over are all majority supporters of legalisation.

Some people will say that their particular area is against this. Well, our poll clearly shows a majority support same-sex marriage in every state and, importantly, in key political battlegrounds like Western Sydney and regional Queensland.

Some will try to argue that those of faith are against same-sex marriage, and it is only the godless who are in favour. Untrue. It may surprise some out there - perhaps even the leaders of their flocks - that a majority of Catholics, Anglicans and other non-Christian faiths also support it.

Some will say that right-of-centre voters are opposed, but our polling says all party bases and, yes, the all-important swing voter group have a majority in favour of marriage equality.

There is very little electoral downside here, but a lot of upside; especially when our poll also finds that this is a far more important issue to those that support it than to those who oppose. In other words, legalisation is a vote winner.

In contrast to these faux arguments, there are so many real reasons to support same-sex marriage, and most simply come down to common sense and fairness. It's about providing equality of opportunity at no cost to others.

This is why I say that this is an issue whose time has come. It is not about age, it's not about sexuality, it's not about geography, it's not about politics and it's not about faith. This is about a majority of people deciding that something is right (a handy definition of democracy by the way).

I'm not saying for a moment that every single person in Australia agrees with this. Obviously there is a dwindling minority out there who are yet to be convinced or never will be, and in a free society that is their right and privilege.

What I do say, though, is that their opinions do not represent those of the nation on this issue. They are neither leading nor following mainstream sentiment; they are opposed to it.

People often see same-sex marriage legislation as inevitable for this very reason. If it doesn't happen today it will happen tomorrow, or next week, or next year. And it will.

But for gay people that is not soon enough. People can be forgiven for not putting same-sex marriage at the top of their issue agenda in such times as these, but for gay people and those around them it is extremely important and pressing.

It's often been said that the mark of a civilised nation is how it treats its most vulnerable. I agree, but prefer a broader definition. If a democracy is the will of the majority, the mark of its civility should be how its minorities are treated.

So can we extend the right to marry to everyone? Can we use increasing majority support to solve a minority issue? Can we overcome the manufactured divisions put in the way?

Yes, we can. We should. We shall.

The poll referred to in this article was conducted on behalf of Australian Marriage Equality (AME) in June 2014, and employed random telephone polling adhering to market research industry standards and practices.

Jim Reed is the director of Research and Strategy at Crosby|Textor. View his full profile here.