Thursday Thoughts, September 30, 2021

Department of Technology:

• To help reduce waste and to increase standardization, the EU is moving to make USB-C the default for charging wireless devices . Of course, there's a company in Cupertino that likes to do things their own way arguing this would hurt innovation .
• Australia's ABC has a good run-down on the state of affairs between the government and tech leaders in China.
• Yikes! Lithuania's government has recommended throwing away Chinese manufacturers' mobile devices, alleging that the devices have built-in censorship functionalities .
• The market for providing healthtech solutions to LGBTQ persons is expanding rapidly .
• Surveys suggest that American voters want Washington rein in tech companies but, if you look at the questions that prompted these headlines, you'll find that they were very much what we lawyers like to call "leading" questions (so the findings aren't as useful as they would be if the questions had been asked in a neutral manner).
• The beat goes on. The beat won't stop. The beat...is an endless DJ set enabled by AI ? Okay, interesting. But will it throw cake ?
• Facebook is pushing back on at least one of the WSJ's stories from the 'Facebook files.' Nonetheless, they publicly pulled back on their plans to launch an Instagram for kids. Meanwhile, Quartz is asking a good question: what if Facebook is lying to its oversight board ?
• Apple is developing more features to understand users' health through their interaction with Apple devices . Fascinating and, if effective/accurate, these could lead to significant improvements in our understanding of different health conditions (and could lead to people getting earlier treatment). Related: does your sports watch accurately measure your VO2Max? The answer is unclear .
• Some people actually thought that China would allow crypto to flourish there. Beijing had some other thoughts .
• TikTok hit 1 billion MAUs pretty quickly , fueled in large part by convincing people on Facebook and Instagram to join their party.
• We are now at a point where deep-fake voices can trick voice recognition software . Not good.
• CNBC has a silly article about the EU losing ground as a top regulator of technology firms (they neglect that maybe--just perhaps--the EU recognizes that it is a very valuable market and has its own interests in regulating access to that market and the terms of participation therein, rather than seeing 'tech regulation' as a game vis-a-vis China and the U.S.).
• Digital media company Ozy had a 'terrible, horrible, no good, very bad ' week.
• AI will help us better understand and forecast the strength and path of hurricanes .
• An article in IEEE's Spectrum suggests that deep learning models are starting to bump into constraints on their advancement .
• Another fascinating finding in AI: larger language models are more likely to generate falsehoods . American/Western tech giants are taking steps to ensure AI is developed ethically (and will be used for ethical purposes) ; it's not clear that AI systems developed elsewhere will follow that course.
• Bain's annual technology report is out.

Privacy and Security Matter:

• Good work: major cloud service providers have signed onto a set of "Trusted Cloud Principles ."
• Over-intrusive workplace surveillance seems to be a lasting side effect from the pandemic . Hopefully more employees will speak out and these practices will cease.
• If you're operating in Quebec, it appears that you now have a significantly updated data protection law to contend with.
• Amazingly, the FTC felt it had to issue a clarifying statement to ensure that health apps were aware that, if they experienced a data breach, they would need to report it.
• We're probably going to want to have some sort of secure/privacy-protective digital vaccine passport. Some of the current offerings don't appear to cut it .
• If Alexa wasn't privacy-invasive enough, you can now get in line to purchase 'Astro,' Amazon's robo-sentry . Based on the Vice write-up, I'm genuinely curious if the robot will work or if it will...'throw itself down a set of stairs,' as one insider predicts.
• Microsoft has launched a great set of tools to help understand data trends while minimizing risks to data privacy .

Sports are awesome:

• The Rays want to split time between Tampa and Montreal . It makes sense in many respects, including from a climate and a revenue basis.
• People are celebrating the underdog Sheriff Tiraspol in the Champions League, but might not realize that the team is apparently a monolithic, almost bullying presence in the Moldovan league .
• Kilian Jornet has a great essay on the topic of taking risk in outdoors pursuits (it's old but he reposted it on Twitter recently).
• The Lions can't catch a break: this time, Justin Tucker kicked an amazing, record-setting 66 yard field goal to put the Ravens on top.
• Sunday night may be one of the biggest sports events in Boston history: Tom Brady is coming back to Foxborough to take on the Pats .

Covid is a battle we can win:

• It didn't have to be this way: the U.S.'s death rate (and vaccination rates) are significant outliers among highly developed economies.
• We may only be a few months away from anti-virals that can help treat covid cases (for example, Merck's therapeutic would treat all variants ). This would be the next game changer (after vaccines) in getting life back towards normal. Or, rather, a new normal, as it appears to be all but certain that covid will be a part of life going forward .
• We need to improve our understanding of long covid, as the debilitating condition has the potential to create challenges for millions going forward .
• The U.S. government's messaging regarding boosters has been terrible and confusing . This kind of muddled messaging is damaging public trust in the Biden's administration to communicate effectively and correctly regarding the pandemic (obviously, Republicans wouldn't trust him--by the way, covid is reaching a point where political affiliation is one of the leading predictors of risk --but trust dropped significantly among Democrats and independents).
• Want to vaccinate the world faster? Let the generics manufacturers into the game . Vaccinating the world will also help ensure that our supply chain struggles are resolved more expeditiously .
• A study popular among anti-vaxxers that purported that vaccines spike cases of heart inflammation was shown to be flawed .
• There are a number of silly headlines highlighting the number of employees quitting their jobs due to vaccine mandates (these headlines play up the number ('600 employees') while ignoring the fact that those employees represent a small sliver (say, .5%) of employees in scope). Going forward, as economies try to reopen faster, vaccination status will increasingly become a requirement for work .
• File this under "unsurprising news": wearing masks has been shown to reduce the risk of covid spread in schools . Related: there's a theory that, if we want to move out of the acute phase of the pandemic more quickly, vaxxing kids might be essential .
• We've struggled with the covid pandemic. The next one could be worse, and it's not entirely clear that we've learned how to prepare for it .
• California is doing relatively well with respect to its battle with covid, but the political war between public health officials and elected politicians seems ready to boil over.
• Welcome to the party (you're only months too late): YouTube banned anti-vaccine misinformation this week .

Climate Change is a challenge we must meet:

• Climate change loss is going to be uninsurable. Millions face lost coverage in California as a result of wildfire risks increasing dramatically (and that number is growing as Americans increasingly move into WUIs and other fire-prone areas ). Likewise, many in coastal regions around the U.S. are going to see massive increases in premiums (or lost coverage) very soon.
• Speaking of insurance, and in a positive development, Lloyd's of London will cease insuring the fossil fuel industry by 2030 .
• The SF Bay Area has (generally) been spared from apocalyptic smoke this year (unlike 2020). The massive blazes have instead sent smoke all over the U.S., creating health risks from sea to shining sea .
• Good work by Governor Newsom: California is now allocating $15 billion to fight climate change, wildfires, and drought .
• Perhaps as a result of all the news regarding climate change, the American public is finally starting to recognize the severity of the risks associated with a warming world. Despite all the concern, we need to remain optimistic and push back against the idea that the climate is doomed regardless of actions we take as individuals and as a society.
• Continuing on my point last week regarding the ramped-up production plans for the F-150 Lightning, Ford is unveiling a massive initiative to upscale EV manufacturing in the U.S. , with plans for the U.S. to be self-sufficient with respect to batteries and the world-leader in EV production .
• If F-150 Lightnings aren't your thing, and you have lots of money to burn, you may want to wait for Ferrari's electric car (which will be designed by legendary Apple designer Jony Ive ).
• The Simpsons meme regarding future generations' climate experiences is not too far from the truth: the next generation will face far more climate-related disasters than those before them .
• As the permafrost unfreezes, crazy things will happen (including literal explosions in Siberia ).
• And water shortages (and battles over dammed rivers) will prompt conflicts in the future . In the U.S., by the way, there's a 1-in-3 chance that Lake Powell will be unable to generate hydropower by 2023 (due to the historic megadrought in the Southwest).
• Cities are going to have to work hard to adapt to heat disasters in the future , as heat domes in cities can raise already high temperatures to dangerous levels.
• Just a heads up: taking a ride-share is going to be worse for the environment than driving yourself . But it's still better to walk, bike, or take public transit if you can.

California is a fascinating state:

• San Francisco has a ban on chains (defined as >11 stores) in the city. Which means that successful local brands--like El Farolito--may suffer .
• Despite throwing lots of money at the issue, California continues to face high rates of homelessness. The state just enacted a set of laws that may help improve that situation .
• The DoD has technology that can help California (and the rest of the West) identify wildfires faster. But it's hard to get access to it . What's the point of a $700+ billion defense budget if we can't use it to save ourselves from disasters?
• Yikes! Algae blooms have rendered the water in Clear Lake toxic .
• Sacramento is recording its longest dry streak in 140+ years ...
• The mask mandate appears to be having significant negative effects on restaurants, bars, and other venues in SF.
• Good news: a major music festival in Napa County (BottleRock) did not have a material impact on regional covid cases .
• First responders in LA County are much more likely to be anti-vaccination than the communities they serve, even as more first responders nationwide were been killed by covid than any other cause in 2020.

Everything Else:

• Amazing: Scientists have found footprints in New Mexico that may date back to 23,000 years ago . This may significantly shift our understanding of the peopling of the Americas, though it probably shouldn't: this finding merely reinforces indigenous wisdom and history that was previously misinterpreted or dismissed by academics . Related: Interior Secretary Haaland stated that indigenous knowledge will help us confront climate change . Good.
• They're not even trying to hide it anymore: some U.S. politicians are openly promoting "white replacement theory." This, plus the constitutional crisis that the Robert Kagan sees emerging , give more significance to everything happening in Washington right now.
• One of my favorite entertainers of all time--Jon Stewart--is premiering a new show on Apple TV . I'm all in.
• The New Yorker dives into the history of dispossession of Black land in the 20th century . It's a sobering read.
• This week, we celebrated the 38th anniversary of the almost, nearly-could've been, end-of-the-world: but for one heroic Soviet officer's gut intuition, nuclear holocaust could have occurred on Sept. 26, 1983 .
• Speaking of frightening prospects relating to wars between great powers, Foreign Policy has a sobering essay that suggests that China's rapid ascent is cooling and might put it on a collision course with the U.S. in the Pacific . I hope they're wrong, because that would be bad for everyone in the U.S., China, and the rest of the world.
• Maybe they finally saw Nessie? Drone footage might have captured video of the Loch Ness monster (but probably didn't) .
• The Hubble telescope is still helping us learn (this time, about the mystery of 'dead' galaxies ). And the next great telescope--the James Webb--promises even deeper insights into the universe .
• Hilarious: “A Turkish man who got drunk and wandered into the forest later unknowingly joined a search party to find himself. ”
• Good move by France: to address mental health concerns in its population, France will be making therapy sessions free for French citizens starting in 2022 .
• Americans significantly overpay for drugs (or, perhaps, subsidize drug development for the rest of the world). In any event, this is why there is significant, well-deserved pressure on Congress to help rein in the pharmaceutical industry's pricing.
• The Biblical city of Sodom may have been discovered: archaeologists have proposed that Tall el-Hamman, in the Jordan Valley near the Dead Sea, was destroyed several thousand years ago by a Tunguska-sized airburst (about 1000x more energy than the Hiroshima bomb).