Thursday Thoughts, September 23, 2021

Department of Technology:

• Fascinating and frightening: the New York Times delves into the way in which Israeli Mossad agents assassinated a top Iranian nuclear scientist using a remote-controlled, AI-augmented hidden gun. The idea of "robot assassins" has left science fiction and entered reality and, like nearly all weapons, they are bound to become more widely used in time (which is frightening).
• The One Hundred Year Study of Artificial Intelligence has a new report out on AI. It's well worth a read. The TL;DR is that AI is having a "real-world impact on people, institutions, and culture" and cannot be ignored as a factor in society. On a related note, Kai-Fu Lee has a great essay on the ways in which AI will likely transform the world of work in the next few decades, the peril that this trend presents, and how workers and governments can mitigate some of the negative impacts.
• The convergence between phones and tablets continues, with the latest iPad Mini being this close to replacing a phone.
• Following in Florida's missteps, Texas recently passed a social media regulation that would, in the end, support the spread of misinformation online.
• The WSJ continues to knock tech companies, this time going after TikTok for serving up videos featuring sex and drugs to minors. Speaking of recommendation algorithms, YouTube recently opened up about theirs. Pretty cool.
• For the past 11 years, internet freedom has declined around the world. Unfortunately, given recent legislative proposals in many key markets, that's unlikely to change any time soon. And some large platforms are showing that they are willing to facilitate the erosion of internet freedom, e.g., by caving to Russia on barring distribution of a political dissident's app.
• If a platform decides to up-rank content that is positive about that platform's company, is it a neutral platform? And if that platform is a dominant source of news for a large portion of the population, does that on-platform favoritism turn into a mechanism for manufacturing approval? Also, conversely, what does it mean if that platform (allegedly) offers a "hands-off approach" to select publishers and politicians but not others?
• To advance technology development, the Biden administration should speed up the green card process for knowledge workers (it's currently slow and green cards are going unfilled).
• Neat: scientists are trying to build biodegradable, micro-machines that are inspired by airborne plant seeds (think, maple or dandelion) and can be used to gather environmental data.
• The walls between large Chinese apps/companies are starting to become more permeable.
• The robots won't replace us (yet): AI-written code is buggy just like human-written code.

Privacy and Security Matter:

• Another day ending in 'y': European regulators are digging into Facebook's sunglasses partnership with Ray-Ban, suggesting that there could be unlawful data processing by the glasses' video recording functions. I understand the concern but this is actually raising a more significant question: how will the GDPR and related laws address privacy concerns in a world where wearables become more and more commonplace? Wearables will have great utility for almost innumerous purposes, and it's not exactly easy to stick a privacy notice on them.
• After Facebook got raked over hot coals by the WSJ last week, the Facebook Oversight Board is calling for a renewed effort to improve transparency on the platform.
• Reminder: as of Monday (9/27), you'll need to be using the new Standard Contractual Clauses in your data transfer contracts.
• The EU is starting to get more serious about the security of connected devices.
• Congress is considering appropriating an additional $1 billion to the FTC to help create a division focused on privacy and cybersecurity.
• Microsoft uncovered a "Phishing-as-a-Service" operation. What's amazing is that the cost to leverage this phishing service is only $800 (talk about commodification of difficult crimes). Related: the Facebook Marketplace has emerged as another platform for international scams.
• The FBI withheld information that could have helped Kaseya victims in an effort to try to catch the criminals.
• If you haven't been paying attention, be aware that there are seismic shifts underway relating to the online advertising ecosystem. The NYT recently published a good summary of how that is playing out and how it might impact your privacy.

Sports are awesome:

• Fascinating: certain regions seem much more likely to produce top quarterback talent. The leading state on a per-capita basis might surprise you (but should make sense): Hawaii.
• I think this would be a great idea: a pitch clock to speed up MLB games. Game length has increased by 50% since the 1960s and the pitch clock has proven itself well in minor league games.
• Athletics Weekly has a good look into the training program for a top-level distance runner.
• Smart for the runners, but an unusually strong approach from the UTMB: all NSAIDs will be banned going forward (taking NSAIDs can help with stomach/leg pains, common in the UTMB races, but can be toxic).
• For the first time in 27 years, an American man won the Mountain Bike World Cup.
• Mindfulness training can improve your performance in endurance athletics. So can plant-based diets.
• There are many runners who celebrate their birthday by running their new age in miles. That's pretty cool when you're in your 20s-30s. It's even cooler (but almost insane) when you're in your 80s.

Covid is a battle we can win:

• Challenging times lead to innovation. We're now seeing new tools deployed (or old tools deployed in new ways) to combat not only covid but other health challenges.
• It didn't have to be this way: U.S. deaths from covid have now exceeded the number of deaths from the 1918-20 flu pandemic.
• Largely due to government support, America's economy has endured the pandemic far better than expected. More here.
• We're more than a year and a half into the pandemic. And yet we still have massive gaps in our data, which is hindering our ability to understand the spread of covid and how we can combat it.
• A major study by Microsoft demonstrated that the primary effects of remote work in the covid pandemic were (1) a tendency for collaboration networks to become more static and (2) a drift towards asynchronous, rather than synchronous, collaboration (meaning more time spent conveying rather than discussing). Neither is particularly good.
• A few great developments: in November, fully vaccinated international travelers can enter the U.S. And Pfizer released data indicating that their vaccine is safe and effective for children aged 5-11. It also turns out that vaccinated pregnant women can pass on protection to their babies. Also, it looks like we're making progress towards nasal spray vaccines.
• Marin County, California is approaching 100% of eligible people having had at least one shot (and is above 90% fully vaccinated). And it's not alone: the Bay Area, and all of California, are doing well in combatting the latest covid surge.
• We're in the middle of a national/global public health crisis and, for some reason, the Biden administration has not appointed an FDA head.
• Cloth masks are so 2020. People need to adopt N95s for 2021.
• There were apparently plans pre-pandemic to conduct coronavirus gain-of-function research at Wuhan using bats. I'm hoping that isn't what happened; if so, the U.S. and Chinese teams involved would have a lot of explaining to do.
• The NYT has an interesting article out about those who have shunned vaccines but are going all-in on monoclonal antibody treatments. These are a minority, of course: about half of the unvaccinated in the U.S. claim to be willing to get shots, but seemingly haven't found a way to do so yet.
• Ideological purity tests that purge competent public officials have disastrous impacts on states' abilities to combat covid (and face other challenges).
• Nearly all other advanced countries have widespread rapid testing. Why don't we?

Climate Change is a challenge we must meet:

• Climate change is going to impact the entire world, but there is a very critical environmental justice component that needs to be addressed. For example, communities in poorer nations near the equator are likely to be devastated by climate change. And, in the United States, we're now learning that climate disasters and long-term impacts are likely to be borne disproportionately by minorities and lower income communities. These communities have been victimized by pollution and environmental destruction throughout American history, and equity and justice demand that we stop ignoring the impact of our decisions (consumerism, etc.) on communities far away from us.
• Apparently I'm not alone in my excitement for the F-150 Lightning - with insane pre-order volume, Ford is adding workers and significant investment in production.
• A thought-provoking article came out in the Atlantic: if all we're doing in response to climate change is evacuating people in the face of danger, that may well be an admission of public policy failure. That being said, when a Category 4+ hurricane is coming, or wildfire-prone regions erupt in fire, there isn't necessarily much that can be done other than to evacuate--it can be expensive/hard to harden against those kinds of events.
• According to LinkedIn's Allen Blue, about half of all jobs will be impacted by climate change. That percentage is probably higher in the outdoors industry, which is facing significant challenges with changing climates.
• I feel like I'm repeating myself, but every week or so we learn more about how cryptocurrencies are bad for the planet. The latest? The electronic waste from bitcoin is basically at a level of one iPad thrown away for every two bitcoin transactions.
• Global investors are apparently struggling with how to invest in sustainable businesses.
• Wind Catching Systems has abandoned the monolithic wind turbine for an array of smaller turbines in developing a floating wind turbine farm to harness the more powerful winds over open water. It sure beats the open-water oil leases that the Biden administration just opened up.
• Last year, everyone was seemingly worried about running out of toilet paper. This year, the NRDC points out that we should be worried about the ecological impact of certain TP producers.
• Maybe paint will save us? A newly developed white paint could reduce the need for AC and cool buildings and our planet.
• A number of large real estate firms are throwing significant money ($140 million, with plans for up to $500 million) into a Fifth Wall fund that will help drive climate change related innovation in the sector.
• Great move by China (if it's followed through): Xi Jinping announced plans to stop building coal plants internationally (likely to kill international financing for coal development). In fact, China is making a number of other positive changes here, including entering a major climate accord and starting to enforce its laws against Chinese companies operating abroad.
• Some scientists believe that the increase of algae blooms may suggest parallels with a massive extinction event in Earth's past.
• Surprising no one, the wildfire smoke this year was very unhelpful with respect to curbing global CO2 emissions.
• Why we're in trouble: a coal-linked U.S. Senator is going to be the deciding vote on how the U.S. approaches energy and climate initiatives.

California is a fascinating state:

• After beating the recall election, Gov. Newsom signed some pretty important bills into law that might have major effects further down the line for housing affordability in California. (I think he was just waiting for the votes to be cast before signing.) In short, single-family zoning is effectively dead in California, and it'll be easier than ever to build multi-family housing. In this state, density in developed areas is the key to (1) increasing housing stock/affordability and (2) reducing further environmental damage and wildfire risk.
• A San Diego-based company sells the aluminum wrappings that have been used to protect homes and, more recently, giant sequoias. Speaking of fire protection, California and the West need more goats to combat fire risks.
• One thing we're learning about fires is that the old idea that sites of recent burns won't reburn for a while is no longer correct (see, for example, the Fremont Fire that popped up yesterday in Sonoma).
• We need to be more thoughtful in how we approach housing in fire-prone areas, especially as California looks increasingly likely to insure homeowners for fire risks. Doing so without appropriate incentives could bankrupt the state.
• The National Park Service has made it difficult for reporters to access (and report on) the KNP Complex fire.
• California has some of the most varied hydrology in the U.S. and is facing significant water-related challenges in a warming world. It's unclear, aside from massive infrastructure changes, increased efficiency couple with reduced use, increased desalination, and reducing agricultural land, what can help alleviate that problem. Right now, many Californians are ignoring the problem.
• They're planning to build high-speed rail between LA and Vegas. Which is great, but we need to ensure that doing so doesn't needlessly endanger wildlife.
• "Do as I say, not as I do" with respect to covid restrictions has become standard fare for many California politicians.
• Incredibly sad: Usal Beach, in the Sinkyone Wilderness area (also known as part of the "Lost Coast") has become a venue for illegal off-roading, fireworks, raves, etc.

Everything Else:

• Biden just declared the end of the era of 'forever war.' I hope he's right--the number of U.S. troops abroad would suggest he's not--but even making that pronouncement may trigger Chamberlain comparisons.
• Evergrande, a Chinese construction giant, has appeared likely to default on $300 billion in loans. The Chinese government is aiming to treat this like a 'controlled demolition' (they've been successful so far) rather than a rapid collapse (a la Lehman Brothers); let's hope that they can pull it off.
• Non-alcoholic beer is taking off. I'm glad the New Yorker featured Athletic Brewing Company, which makes excellent NA beers that taste great.
• This will probably be good: Netflix just bought film rights to Roald Dahl's books.
• It's that time of year: find out where to find fall colors. (And here's how to use the Gaia GPS app to find foliage using near-real-time data.)
• The NYT is wading into the debate over free speech, cancel culture, and woke politics (and isn't doing a great job).
• The media attention to the Gabby Petito case has galvanized efforts to bring attention to the many other women reported missing, including hundreds of indigenous women in the intermountain West.
• Fascinating: increased trade can support the 'export' of democracy.