Thursday Thoughts, July 15, 2021

The Department of Tech:

• Good news: the Biden administration is trying to improve competition . As part of that, it is bringing back net neutrality .
• Beijing demonstrated that China's tech scene will have to play by the government's rules . The swift knee-capping of Didi (which was hobbled by a series of government inquiries and investigations (as well as app store removals) shortly after IPOing on Wall Street) and the related crackdowns on other Western-facing apps illustrates that the Chinese government is going to prioritize its aims with respect to the country's tech sector . It's no wonder that Didi is now facing a shareholder suit . In the aftermath, we're seeing more and more fallout: ByteDance, fearing a similar fate, delayed its U.S. IPO (perhaps indefinitely) (oh, and insiders are now saying that ByteDance exercises much more control over TikTok than previously known ). China has also updated its rules regarding foreign IPOs . At the same time, some prominent Western tech firms have expressed concerns regarding the viability of the Hong Kong market following proposed regulatory changes . What is ironic, of course, given recent history is that Beijing's charges against the tech companies are predicated on issues relating to 'data security' (ostensibly because the Chinese companies' data might be more accessible to the West) and monopolization. This may put a damper on the notion that many Western firms have regarding long term growth in China. More here and here .
• Axios has a good overview of the disaggregation of phone components into wearables (think headsets and watches). They also have a good overview of the challenges facing social networks , which are combatting the potential disaggregation of their user bases into niche networks.
• Regulators are hitting hard as of late: French authorities are fining Google €500 million for failing to negotiate with news publishers in compliance with court orders.
• Competition law inquiries are heating up: the FTC is reportedly probing the Amazon-MGM deal . Several states' attorneys general have filed competition-related claims against Google . And Facebook really, really doesn't want to go before FTC chair Lina Khan regarding antitrust concerns. Margrethe Vestager is apparently pleased .
• That said, if competition is really being eliminated as some argue , why did VC funding hit a new record in Q2 of 2021 ? It's up 157% year-over-year. (Though some of that funding is going to established players, like Flipkart (which raised $3.6b in its latest round .)
• Evidently, LinkedIn is already in the future: experts predict that company-wide vacations will be the next big perk for tech workers . What's less clear? How the awesome office parks of Silicon Valley will fare, and whether their potential demise will spell the end of SV as a place .
• Microsoft and LinkedIn have helped 42 million people globally train for new skills and improved career trajectories .
• On the other hand, Amazon is advancing a dystopian employment model where employees or contractors are terminated as a result of algorithmic evaluation .
• Primer is using NLP models to enable businesses to create what are essentially CliffsNotes for any body of text .
• There is a curious trend of billionaires focusing their efforts and spending on outer space tourism rather than, say, solving problems on this planet. For what it's worth, the Russian government is hoping the oligarchs get in on that trend .
• The Southern Poverty Law Center has some harsh words regarding hate speech on Twitter .
• Facebook is spending on creators . (But not on transparency .) And they're having to deal with a pretty unflattering new book .
• Funny: here's the back-story on the cartoons that seemingly every other tech company is using to humanize their products .
• The Australian government is considering legislation that would allow it to step in and take control of critical tech infrastructure (including private companies providing data storage) in the event of cyber-attacks .
• As the EU, U.S. and other Western democracies push for AI ethics and transparency, there are plenty of other countries (and companies operating within them) that will push unethical AI (in this case, race-based facial recognition) .
• India threatened to open Twitter up to legal liability, so Twitter improved its practices for Indian users .
• Fascinating: AI can be used to improve efficiencies in the waste management lifecycle , or to improve stylization of language choice .
• GPS is great for 2D world maps but, with increased use of drones, AR, etc., the world needs 3D mapping .
• Would not have guessed it (but it makes sense): Facebook and Peloton pay more per stream to artists than most popular streaming services .
• Nextdoor is going public via SPAC.
• Very cool: UCSF researchers have found a way to use a paralyzed patient's brain waves to enable him to communicate .
• Most startup VC funding in Africa is directed to startups with white founders .
• ProPublica has a fascinating story about how a financial app (Chime) created major problems for users .
• In a long but very enlightening read, Jonathan Zittrain argues that the current idea of the internet as an archive or record for humanity is outmoded and that the internet no longer holds together humanity's collective knowledge. Somewhat relatedly, some scientists are arguing that social media should be studied as a 'crisis discipline' relating to the urgent problems and questions created by widespread social media use.

Privacy and Security Matter:

• The EDPB is demanding that the Irish DPC 'swiftly' investigate the legality of Facebook-WhatsApp data sharing .
• The outgoing head of the Hamburg DPA called the GDPR "broken" and ineffective at regulating tech firms, largely as a result of the one-stop shop mechanism (read: infighting between DPAs leading to delays and dysfunction).
• The California AG is supporting global privacy controls for opting out of the sale of personal data .
• As Apple is tightening tracking rules, ad spending is shifting to Android . It's a balance of higher spenders versus higher reach.
• Protocol has a very insightful read into the battles involving advertisers, privacy advocates, browser developers, and the W3C for the future of online privacy and advertising.
• The Kaseya attack--right before the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S.--demonstrates advances in ransomware sophistication . Shortly afterwards, though, the REvil group mysteriously went offline .
• Some are arguing that China's regulatory moves relating to data security and managements put it ahead of the U.S. in terms of legal privacy protections .
• As part of Biden's executive order focused on the tech space , the administration called for improved data portability (particularly in the financial sector) .
• New Zealand is also planning to unveil a consumer data rights bill in the near term (right now, the government is still planning what that might look like).
• Data is power: Ransomewhe.re is aggregating data on ransomware attacks and payments .
• More than 40% of UK businesses have had breaches reported to the ICO since the GDPR came into effect 3 years ago.
• The IRS is potential exacerbating data protection problems in the U.S.
• The EDPB issued updated guidance on the controller and processor constructs in the GDPR.
• Cue the sirens : A Reuters article outlines how a Chinese gene company selling prenatal tests around the world has ties to China's government/military and is using the test results to collect genetic data about large populations for unknown purposes. Again, as rights advocates focus on digital advertising in the West or on AI ethics, companies in other countries are engaging in egregious behavior that may result in material harms to individuals and societies.

Sports are awesome:

• Jim Walmsley reflects on the return of ultraracing after his WSER win . Meanwhile, the women did incredibly well overall this year at WSER . Meanwhile, the Hardrock 100 kicks off tomorrow, with a strong field (D'haene, Bowman, Dauwalter, Stanley, others). Here's how to tune in .
• Good news! Science confirms what I think many of us knew already: trail running may help your brain .
• It's the MLB's All-Star week. The Giants are doing great , and Shohei Ohtani is demonstrating why he is a singular talent (as a two-way threat, he's arguably better than Babe Ruth).
• Ridley Scott is producing a movie on Eliud Kipchoge's path to the sub-2 hour marathon . Can't wait for it. Speaking of fast Kenyans, Timothy Cheruiyot somehow missed making Team Kenya but just ran a 3:28.28 1500m ...the best time in the world this year.
• Marijuana should not be a drug that results in athletic disqualification/ineligibility . It doesn't enhance performance and is legal in a variety of countries, and the IOC's rules removed one of the most electric runners from the Tokyo 2021 field . It's a shame, and a demonstration of why the Olympics need to start thinking about athletes' mental health (this year has seen a large number of high-profile withdrawals in a variety of sports), and an illustration of the complexities (and challenges) of addressing international rules regarding doping . Here's a good post clearing up common misconceptions .
• The Olympics, which start a week from Friday, are now going to be a TV-only event as fans are banned during another covid emergency in Japan . It'll be interesting to see how this plays out: what are the Games without an audience? As it stands, there are fears that the Games will turn into a superspreader event . The IOC has announced some of their plans for how to address what happens when athletes test positive .
• Italy edged out England in the Euros (when it came down to penalties, did anyone expect England to win?). That may be good news for the Italian stock market , by the way. Meanwhile, it's shameful that so many England fans have expressed outright racism against members of the team . Also, with Argentina beating Brazil in the Copa América Final, Lionel Messi has hopefully redeemed himself in the eyes of fellow Argentinians .
• As soon as the NCAA got rid of the NIL limitations, student athletes started to cash in . Good for them.
• The Oakland A's really love Max Muncys . And championships seem to love being near Tom Brady .
• As a follow-up, Lachlan Morton completed his Alt-Tour de France ahead of the regular Tour (and with more mileage and elevation gain as well), raising a significant sum of money for charity. An absolute legend.
• Stian Angermund and Maude Mathys continue to excel in the Golden Trail World Series, winning the Marathon du Mont-Blanc (they're each 2 for 2 in the GTWS this year).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup and promptly dented it in a celebration party . Don't worry: this is the 'celebration' copy of the Cup and this isn't the first time a team has put it through the wringer.
• The NBA is changing the supplier of basketballs used in its games for the first time in decades.
• Surfing is in the Olympics this year but Hawaiian activists are concerned about how white-washed the sport will be .
• Smart study: when making adjustments to your running routine, do it slowly and incrementally or risk injury .
• The post-covid future for gyms is pretty uncertain at this point .

Covid is a battle we can win:

• Even as the Delta variant makes a potential fourth wave more likely, the good news is that covid is causing fewer deaths than before in the U.S. In fact, we may be approaching a fourth wave right now, as covid cases have doubled in the past weeks in the U.S. (with nearly all states seeing case rates rising), likely as a result of the Delta variant combined with reduced mask wearing and social distancing.
• It's amazing to watch bad politics turn into bad policy: because of ideological rigor, many on the right in the U.S. are refusing to vaccinate , and their legislators (almost entirely in states with low vaccination rates) are pushing laws that restrict proof-of-vaccination requirements . In any event, those at the greatest risk apparently think the risk is overblown . <Facepalm> More here .
• While the mRNA vaccines appear to work well against the Delta variant (though boosters may be needed ), many are skeptical that the Sinovac shot is as effective .
• One good idea for increasing vaccination in the U.S.: distribution through Dollar General and similar stores , which have a huge presence/draw in under-vaccinated regions.
• Unfortunately, while it is a rare occurrence, long covid can strike vaccinated people . Meanwhile, as wellness resorts are developing 'treatments' for long covid patients and runners are trying to recover , some scientists think they've determined what causes the symptoms to linger .
• As more developed countries try to fully vaccinate their populations, other countries (like many in Africa) are unable to obtain vaccines and are facing a new covid wave .
• Most school children in the U.S. won't have to wear masks during the upcoming school year (the delta variant seems to pose a greater risk to kids, though).
• The J&J vaccine presents some small risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome .
• There's a new "lambda" variant spreading like crazy in South America .
• Some vaccine trial participants for vaccines that seem effective (but haven't yet been approved) are stuck in a 'vaccination limbo': they're vaccinated but not officially .

Climate Change is a challenge we must meet:

• Big, big news: the EU unveiled a plan to cut carbon emissions by 55% across the continent this decade. EU regulators are also stepping up fines for polluters .
• Death Valley, on Sunday, set a global record for the highest average temperature over the course of 24 hours: 118.1 degrees Fahrenheit . The heat dome over the West also led Death Valley to tie the modern heat record several times . To partly combat massive water loss (and a potential reverse of the Dust Bowl migration) , rain harvesting is gaining traction. It'll be a tough battle as the West may be in a vicious climate change feedback loop . (Fun/sad: Rangers at Saguaro National Park were able to bake cookies in their car due to the heat ).
• The heatwave in the Pacific Northwest exceeded worst-case climate models , killed billions of sea creatures (and hundreds of people ), and is forcing a re-thinking in a region that has been viewed as protected against the worst of climate change . For what it's worth, the heat wave would have been impossible but for climate change .
• As Western North America bakes and burns , Western Europe is experiencing devastating rainfall and floods . Flooding around the world might get worse, by the way, as a result of the moon's 'wobble,' which is expected to increase tidal impacts in the 2030s .
• The Amazon is one of the Earth's best carbon sinks. Unfortunately, due to human activities (e.g., deforestation in the Eastern Amazon), parts of the Amazon region are now carbon emitters .
• On a related note, the Earth's 'cryosphere' (the frozen parts) is shrinking dramatically year-over-year .
• We're really messing up the planet when parts of the ocean are burning .
• Climate change (along with other factors) is threatening the world's rubber supply . It's not a good scenario.
• Messaging is important: Texting people to ask them to save power works (at least in NYC ). But billionaires flying private jets to a conference to talk about climate change sends a very bad signal .
• Deadly fungal infections are on the rise, and there aren't great treatments. Some of the fungi, like Valley Fever, are spreading with climate change .
• It sometimes tastes better, but it isn't better for you or the planet: why grilling is over-rated .
• To support a cleaner energy grid, the U.S. will need to find ways to make batteries for energy storage much cheaper . But the materials may be hard to find, and we may risk destruction of ocean ecosystems in an effort to mine the rare earth metals needed.
• Interesting theory: expand electric car racing to help drive EV adoption more broadly .

California is a fascinating state:

• California and the West are burning . The fires are massive, threatening power sources (indicating we need better resilience ), threatening to put wineries out of business (if they can't get fire insurance and then burn ), and creating fire tornadoes (again). One way we can combat fire risk is by leveraging livestock as a means for ground cover control ; they may be better than mowing grass (and don't introduce the same risk of inadvertent fire starts ). Another way is by using AI-powered tools for predicting and detecting fires early .
• California Democrats are facing a challenge between (1) addressing climate change and the state's housing crisis and (2) keeping their powerful trade union allies happy.
• The recent increase in covid cases is particularly pronounced in LA County .
• Good idea: we should have more freeway overpasses for animals .
• Who is leaving California? Often it's younger folks, people with young children, front-line workers, etc. Who is staying? Older Californians, who are locked into lower tax rates and high values on their homes thanks to Prop. 13, and wealthy people on the coast. This doesn't necessarily bode well for the state long-term .
• Prop. 13 isn't the only issue, of course: widespread single-family zoning costs Bay Area homeowners several hundred thousand dollars on average .
• The beaches along Santa Monica Bay are beautiful, but 17 million gallons of sewage just got dumped there. LA officials are trying to figure out why (and why it took so long to alert the public) .
• There have been lots of earthquakes in the Tahoe region as of late .
• Illegal marijuana farms are popping up in California's deserts and bringing with them death and ecological destruction .

Everything Else:

• Psychedelics research is going to be a big area of exploration in the coming years . More on the topic .
• In addition to being good, some dogs are also really smart .
• The U.S. is finally getting out of Afghanistan , far too late and a full generation after the war began.
• The Surfside condo collapse has put a major chill into the Sunshine State's real estate market as everyone wonders whether another building could come down in a similar manner. As an aside, the Surfside collapse highlights the fact that many concrete structures the world over are going to run into structural concerns in the coming decades.
• There is some interesting research about how industrialization likely impacted the range of colors we can name/describe .
• Inflation may not be the universal bogeyman it's often presumed to be.
• Great news: the giant pandas are no longer endangered , according to Chinese conservation efforts.
• Cubans are demonstrating for increased freedom. The protests are inspired in part by music .
• France and Russia are in a funny spat about what is truly Champagne (France is right).
• The mRNA technology powering covid vaccinations is now being leveraged to develop flu shots .
• Fascinating: how we're still living with mapping mistakes from hundreds of years ago , and how indigenous groups are reclaiming landscapes and maps .
• Tea making may depend more on micro-organisms than previously known.