Thursday Thoughts, Feb. 18, 2021

Another big week. Lots happened.

I realized that I've spent a significant amount of time reading and thinking about climate change and the state of the covid vaccine roll-outs, so I've added some good reads on those topics.

Tech:

• Did Facebook overpay in settling with the FTC for $5 billion? If so, why? A shareholder derivative suit is digging in.
• Meanwhile, TikTok is facing some GDPR complaints in the EU.
• Privacy advocates have Clubhouse in their sights. And, yes, it looks like Clubhouse (like other hypergrowth companies) has some catching up to do. At least they’re starting to fix them (I mean, if all user data was accessible to the Chinese government, then perhaps its a net positive that the app is no longer available within China). In the end, to be honest, privacy advocates’ time would probably be better spent going after businesses that use massive amounts of more sensitive data to do things that may have material, negative impacts on individuals (see, e.g., health, finance, housing sectors). Those would be harder fights but might be meaningful.
• While we’re on the topic of Clubhouse, I don’t really get why Elon Musk is looking to speak to Vladimir Putin, but I’m sure that the conversation would be pretty weird.
• Speaking of (most likely) Russia, Microsoft is estimating that the SolarWinds hack took about 1000 engineers to pull off (so, not a “guy on his couch” this time).
• Back to Elon Musk, he’s betting that the Boring Company can provide a tunnel to Miami for $30m and in 6 months (the city’s transit officials estimated $1 billion and a longer timeframe). We’ll see if he’s got a bridge in Brooklyn to offer them next. 
• This is COOL, and reminds me of why the Internet can be one of the best and most exciting tools for the world: it’s effectively a Google Maps overlay that will enable you to listen in to radio stations around the world. Broaden your horizons, learn new things.
• Professor Eric Goldman has a great write-up on CDA Section 230 and on how to think of social media.
• Remember the Gamestop short? Seems like ancient history, which makes it fitting of course for a congressional hearing today.
• I’m sorry, but there is zero chance that I would trust Facebook with health data on a Facebook watch. If they can demonstrate a commitment to data protection more generally, it might be worth thinking about. But, in any event, not sure what their value prop is for developing a smart watch - aside from Oculus, hardware isn’t in their DNA, and the wearables market is getting dominated by Apple on the general side and niche players in specific segments (e.g., Garmin vs. Suunto vs. Coros vs. Polar in the athletics sphere). I don’t know where the Facebook watch would sit, but maybe the play is to eat away at Apple?
• And speaking of Facebook and Apple, it sounds like the fight between the two is heating up, with Zuck telling staff to “inflict pain” on Apple.
• Framing matters, and that’s definitely true in UX and Privacy. Right now, Apple is defining the framework for discussions about apps and advertising; as long as it does so, it’ll have a strong advantage. 
• Given the paucity of action at the federal level, states are beginning to come up with novel ways to regulate tech. Here’s one moving forward: Virginia is set to enact a privacy bill! Here’s one that isn't: yesterday, the North Dakota state senate voted down legislation that would have forced app stores to let software developers use their own payment processing software. One to watch: Maryland is proposing a digital advertising tax. 
• Not to be totally outdone by the states, the FTC for the first time is requiring a digital health app to provide notice to users of the FTC’s action against the app maker.
• Music to their ears: Spotify bucks the Facebook/Twitter trend and will pay employees by their value, rather than their location (so Spotify employees won’t take a pay cut to relocate from NYC or SF to a lower cost city). They may want to consider one of Airstream’s new trailers that come with WFH offices built in. At the same time, though, people are starting to experience trust breakdowns as a result of at-scale WFH over the past year.
• African governments increasingly rely on internet shutdowns to control media, and are passing laws to regulate/restrict speech in their jurisdictions. This could lead to another branch of the Splinternet. 
• North Korea hacks Pfizer to get vaccine information. Not to create vaccines for its people, mind you, but to sell Pfizer data to raise cash.
• Meanwhile, Facebook remains the battleground for discussions over the covid vaccines, as a deep dive into the fight illustrates.
• Meanwhile, Facebook is restricting news/publishing shares on platform in Australia. In related news, the Facebook experience is probably improving for Australians. 
• Insight into the Facebook Oversight Board - they’re going to have to make lots of hard calls with global impacts. It won’t be easy.
• Estonia’s intelligence service warns of a tech schism between the U.S. and China, with China trying to push the EU to support Chinese tech (and ultimately silencing criticism of China). A tech cold war with China could also be a bad scenario for the U.S. 
• Crypto is broken: in the latest example, Dogecoin (a comedic riff on Bitcoin that was never intended to serve as a currency) is now worth billions of dollars, and one Dogecoin holder holds (in theory) more than $2 billion in Dogecoin.

Running:

• Science confirms that running is a full body exercise. Shouldn't have taken that long :)
• Sometimes, our nerves and our bodies aren’t entirely in sync. Science is starting to learn more about this, which might help with treatments for pain.
• Wow, Oregon has some really fast indoor milers (i.e., two members of the team just took the 1st and 2nd place NCAA indoor mile records).
• Meanwhile, in Monaco, Beatrice Chepkoech set a 5k women’s world record with her 14:43 performance, more than one minute ahead of the competition. 
• Speaking of amazing results, a British pro cyclist (and mere 'casual' runner) dropped a 13:25 road 5K, only 5 seconds off the UK record (and 5 seconds faster than Mo Farah, one of the most decorated British distance runners). I guess it shows that, to a degree, fitness regardless of specificity makes a huge difference. Now, if he’d paced himself better, he would’ve had a shot at beating the UK record...
• Ruth Croft continues to be a dominant force in the ultrarunning world, this time winning the tough Tarawera Ultra outright. Between Croft and Courtney Dauwalter, they’re showing that women can perform at the same level (or better) than men in ultras. 
• South Africa’s iconic Comrades Marathon has been canceled for a second year, causing it to miss its 100th anniversary run. 
• Meanwhile, the Broken Arrow Skyrace in Squaw Valley has been postponed to October.
• Speaking of, Salomon announced the launch of the North American Golden Trail National Series with five races in the U.S. and Canada (one of them is the Broken Arrow Skyrace; it also includes the Way Too Cool 50K). 
• The Black Canyon 100K happened last week, and Aravaipa Running put on a heck of a show. This racing coverage already exists in Europe, and it was refreshing to see it here. Hats off to them for pulling this off, during covid no less. For a race recap, see here.
• Finally, what’s worse than a Beer Mile? A Nog Jog (it is what you think it is).

SF Bay Area/California

• People talk about the lack of affordable housing in California as if the problem is unique to California. It isn’t* and, as Californians move elsewhere, housing squeezes are becoming more common. *Note: of course, NIMBYism in California certainly doesn’t help with the problem.
• Not a total shock, but USPS data shows that SF residents aren’t going too far away when they leave the city: instead, they’re piling into nearby suburbs. This is probably a good thing for the region’s long-term health.
• Meanwhile systemic racism (showing up this time in the home appraisal process) continues to harm SF Bay Area minority homeowners/homebuyers. 
• As Uniqlo exits Union Square, it’s becoming more and more clear that downtown SF is going to look different post-covid. If there’s low foot traffic, and tons of social challenges in the area, why pay top dollar to rent out a storefront? Add closing retail to the the cancelled conventions and, eventually, SF will likely need to address the public health and mental health challenges seen on a daily basis in large parts of the city. 
• Atmospheric rivers and climate change whiplash: get ready for more wild weather swings in the years ahead.
• Want to see firefall in Yosemite? This year, you’ll need a reservation (and they’re all gone). 
• There were a little over 2 million Californians in 1908. Only one of them is still alive, possibly thanks to good Italian food, red wine, long walks, and lots of dancing. 

Covid:

• Double masking is finally in (my wife and I were early adopters when covid first hit). Here’s more about why it makes sense, and how to do it correctly.
• Covid misinformation isn’t just a problem for social media platforms: scientific community websites are also confronting allegations of misinformation.
• Covid absolutism is, theoretically, a great way to combat the spread of the virus. But it’s turned into a practical problem in the U.S.: telling everyone to completely lock down, double-mask at all times, and scrub all surfaces led to people saying they’d rather play covid roulette with everyone else. While the author suggests that targeted vigilance and efforts to prioritize the most meaningful areas for risk reduction may result in better outcomes for society, I’m not sure that it’s a good idea to give people additional license to engage in riskier activities. Our failure as a society to take covid seriously has gotten us into a terrible situation and, with vaccine distribution ramping up, now really is not the time to let down our guard. 
• Meanwhile, there are some good arguments being put forth regarding the need to re-open schools. In particular, it seems like Zoom schooling is having terrible effects on many kids: they’re dropping out (by the millions), having mental health crises, and acting out like never before. And it’s affecting minority and special needs students more than others.
• Speaking of vaccines, it’d be really helpful if California was less arbitrary and capricious in its vaccine eligibility guidelines. 
• “Get a jab to keep your job” - yes, UK employers are considering mandatory vaccination for employees.
• Hugely positive results out of Israel: the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines are highly effective.
• Tech companies are angling to help out with U.S. vaccination efforts. Any bit of help helps.
• The next challenge: a universal coronavirus vaccine.

Global Climate Change: 

• Last week, GM. This week? Ford announces it’s going all electric in Europe by 2030. Same with Jaguar (and most of Land Rover).
• Global warming is here, and speeding up: Arctic summer sea ice may be a thing of the past within 15 years.
• China’s appetite for coal power (e.g., an additional 250GW worth of coal powered plants to be built, more than all of the U.S.) may cook us all.
• Hot take: gas stoves cook well, but they’re bad for your health and the environment. 
• Climate change wreaked havoc on Texas, with once-in-a-hundred years freezes and snow/ice. Ironically, in a state where 80%+ of energy is from non-renewable sources, certain politicians are blaming the Green New Deal (which, as basically everyone should know, is not in effect). More on the politics of Texan power here and here. 
• We’re continuing to learn from the past. Scientists are now understanding more about how past climate change impacted plant communities, causing extinctions that we’re only now uncovering. 
• There are droughts, and then there are “snow droughts.” The Western U.S. often experiences them both, and is in the midst of a snow drought right now. 
• Water in the West is complicated. Add in hydro power and salmon and it gets more and more complicated. 

Everything Else

• Put aside your “Age of Aquarius” jokes - the Fifth Dimension might be very real.
• QAnon is basically a cult, and it’s damaging ties in families across America.
• David Frum makes a solid argument in the Atlantic that America’s anti-majoritarian political structures are no longer working the way they were intended and should be scrapped in favor of more democratic institutions. A similar argument suggests that executive orders and filibusters are two sides of the same coin and reflect poorly on the structure and status of politics in the U.S. 
• Feelings of psychological ownership lead to people acting more responsibly in public lands. Go figure - if you care about something and feel like it’s partly yours, you’ll take care of it.
• And you should get outside, whether to parks or to your immediate environment. The WSJ has a good point that, during the pandemic, getting two hours outdoors may be more important for health than getting in your 10,000 steps.
• File under “unsurprising”: a study of Chicago’s PD finds that diverse police forces police better, and are less likely to needlessly stop citizens or engage in the use of force. It intuitively makes sense: if the police force is drawn from and looks like the local community, it might result in less of an “us vs. them” mentality.
• Very cool: scientists discovered Venetian beads in Alaska, indicating that indigenous communities in the Americas were trading across the Bering Sea in the mid-1400s (and likely well before).
• Pan-Africanism has become a force in modern hip-hop.
• On the topic of music, Vivendi is spinning out Universal Music Group. Oh, and the music industry? It might double in size by 2030 to $45 billion.