Thursday Thoughts, December 2, 2021

Happy 12022021!

Today's date, using U.S. dating formats, is a palindrome and an ambigram, meaning it reads the same forwards as backwards and if it's flipped upside down.

Department of Technology:

• Quite the animated battle: in what would be a first for a major tech merger, the UK's CMA is reversing Facebook's acquisition of Giphy .
• But, hold my beer, says the FTC: they just announced they're suing to block the $40 billion Nvidia/ARM merger .
• Farewell, @Jack (again): Dorsey is stepping down from the Twitter CEO role for the second time. Twitter then immediately created confusion with an update to their content policies (making it seem like they would bar any tweeting images of others without consent; they later clarified that there were exceptions, such as newsworthiness, to these policies).
• Bitcoin mining is bad for the environment, but likely won't wreck it over the next decade or so (as one study recently claimed).
• Pitchbook found that mega-exits of AI/ML start-ups have tripled (compared to 2020) this year.
• Meta is going in big on the metaverse. But Second Life creator Philip Rosedale has some cautionary words for Zuck: "it's not for everybody, and maybe it's never for everybody." Also, it appears more likely that we won't get to use Facebook currency in the metaverse.
• Good: New Zealand is pushing for an international treaty to ban the use of autonomous weapons.
• I can haz disinformation ? Unfortunately, bad actors (including ideological 'gangs' ) are using videos and images of cute cats and other animals to draw clicks on social media platforms, which gives them a relevancy boost for promoting their disinformation/misinformation. These clickbait operations draw in millions of dollars from Facebook and Google to fund their misinformation operations .
• Axios may have exposed some flaws in Airbnb's host screening controls.
• Crypto-idealism is about to run into the reality of regulation .
• Quantum computing is a frontier of tech. It's also becoming a frontier for M&A .
• We're seeing an increased likelihood of AI startups moving towards IPOs . Speaking of AI, here's a good primer on explainability in AI. Also, DeepMind just announced some AI-driven advances in mathematics .
• Some former engineers are suing Google , arguing that, in firing them following their employee activism regarding Google's work with ICE/DHS, Google violated the "Don't be evil" clause in the employee handbook.
• You don't have to be an influencer to make money by using Instagram (at least not in Canada ).
• The Chinese government's recent regulatory approach to tech has had an outsized impact on Chinese tech firms' earnings this quarter .
• I guess if you take a Square and multiply it by a bunch of acquisitions and add a few new products, you end up with a Block ?
• Wild: scientists have created (tiny) living robots that can self-replicate .

Privacy and Security matter:

• Perhaps raising far more questions than they answered, the EDPB has weighed in on what constitutes a "transfer" of personal data to a third country .
• Australia's privacy regulator has determined that agreement with privacy policies does not equate to consent .
• Apple and Google are trying to restrict what companies can do with your personal data (in part to support their own bottom lines). As a result, other companies are working hard to get you to give them data about yourself .
• Italy's regulators fined Apple and Google €10 million each for failing to disclose how consumer personal data would be used.
• Ikea's email system is apparently under attack .
• The UK's ICO flagged some concerns regarding Google's Privacy Sandbox .
• The U.S. needs to hire a LOT of cybersecurity professionals in the next few years.
• White hat hackers and hacktivists are destroying the secrecy of far-right groups online.
• The Biden Administration is trying to make some moves to improve privacy .
• The EU moved towards alignment on the European Data Governance Act .

Athletics are awesome:

• Hah! The WSJ views Steph Curry as basketball's version of Roger Federer for getting huge support wherever he's playing.
• Lululemon and Peloton are entering into a big fight over the intersection of at-home exercise and athleisure.
• William Finnegan has a great essay on Tommy Caldwell in the New Yorker.
• A great story about how some high school basketballers in Michigan tried to text their friend and ended up talking with Tom Brady .
• Reebok just released a limited edition trail running shoe and, well, it's the most ridiculous looking thing I've seen in a long time. Not sure if it's intended to be conceptual or for actual running.
• The mountain/trail GOAT, Kilian Jornet, is leaving Team Salomon to focus on some to-be-announced new venture.
• Americans Jim Walmsley and Courtney Dauwalter dominated the Ultra Trail Cape Town (before scrambling back to the U.S. on news of the Omicron variant)
• I guess no one really learned from 1994: the MLB is shutting down for now . When they come back, can they stop their secretive in-game A/B testing ?
• The WTA is taking a strong stand re: China following the Peng Shuai drama.
• Running should feel like freedom. For many Black Americans, that isn't the case . That needs to change.
• A Hong Kong resident developed a new approach to tracking participants in trail races . It may not work for all races but will probably work for many of them.

Covid is a battle we can win:

• So, we have a new variant on the loose . It's named Omicron (here's why ). We don't know too much about it , but initial reports suggest it spreads more easily than Delta , vaccines are less effective against it (if so, both Pfizer and Moderna can quickly update their shots), and it might result in less severe illness for those who catch it. It was detected in South Africa, but it had been circulating broadly (including in the Netherlands ) before it was detected in SA (showing again that these air travel bans are largely populist pleasers and unhelpful ). The strain was first found in the U.S. in SF, largely because SF is one of the only places in the U.S. taking testing and sequencing seriously at this point .
• Want to see what covid looks like up close? The NYT has a beautiful set of 3D illustrations .
• Knowingly and purposefully exposing unknowing others --particularly presidential candidates--to a dangerous disease might be called biological terrorism if anyone else tried it .
• China is actively spreading covid misinformation on social media.
• We should just determine that the mRNA vaccines are three dose vaccines (not two doses plus a booster).
• Jill Lepore has a very good long read in the Guardian regarding the nature of 'society' in the UK/U.S. and what the term should mean prospectively as we move through the pandemic era.
• Good: an FDA panel has approved Merck's anti-viral therapeutic treatment for covid. Now do Pfizer.
• Bad: federal judges are blocking the implementation of Biden administration's vaccine mandates (at least for the time being).
• "Vaccine" is Merriam-Webster's word of the year . It beat out other esteemed competitors like "woke," "insurrection," and "meta" in an illustration of the sad current state of affairs in the U.S.
• Even without Omicron, the Midwest is getting crushed by covid at the moment .
• Long covid is revealing gaps in how Western medicine approaches disease .

Climate Change is a challenge we must meet:

• Horrible: the combination of megafires and climate change are dramatically changing the forest landscape of the Western U.S. , moving pine/fir forests towards scrub and brush.
• Wildfires will become an increasingly global challenge (it's already a global issue; it'll just become more of one). Scientists recently dug in and found that the significantly expanding range for wildfires (and their growth in severity) are largely due to increasing temperatures coupled with decreased humidity .
• Very clever: conservationists are using successful stock market portfolio strategies to select which reefs around the world are best situated for preservation (and might be able to help seed new reefs in a climate-change future).
• Climate change refugees are reshaping American politics . It's also making farm productivity decrease .
• Moving towards a 'bioeconomy ' might be a way to curb emissions while still fostering economic growth.
• It's not just avoidance of climate change that should necessitate pollution reductions: we should also move off of fossil fuels to reduce air pollution's ability to kill .
• The U.S. must take serious steps to reduce its reliance on plastic -- it's everywhere, but it's a huge source of pollution both after use and before use (due to the petro-chemicals needed to create it).
• The massive scale of wildfires in the Western U.S. are creating new challenges for the timber industry .
• The battle against beetles and climate change-driven warming is not unique to the Western U.S.: Germany is facing the same battle .
• The Atlantic has been 'invading' the Arctic Ocean for more than 100 years. Climate change is making it worse.
• This is why we're in trouble: the DOI didn't really consider climate change in opening up new oil/gas leases.
• Meanwhile Beijing is facing political pressure from nationalists that might complicate its efforts to improve China's environmental footprint.
• We are seeing massive flooding in Canada and Australia thanks to climate-change fueled storms. At the same time, BC is seeing December record high temperatures fall by the wayside .
• California is leading the way on banning certain gas-powered landscaping tools. But the conversion to electric will be hard and expensive, and the state may want to offer economic subsidies .
• Sad: climate change is leading to an increase in 'divorce' among Albatrosses .
• Scientists are studying what happens to local environments when glaciers disappear . They're also stress-testing trees to find how to grow them better in a warmer, drier environment.

California is a fascinating state:

• Horrible: new estimates suggest that much of the Sierra snowpack could disappear in the next 25 years. That would require massive action from the state to secure water sources before then.
• Wow - this is a wild story. Several plaintiffs are claiming that Mendocino County law enforcement (and several agencies in neighboring counties) have been engaging in extortion and corruption regarding drug seizures over the past decade. Speaking of Mendo, there's a fight over the Skunk Train's alleged land grab .
• California water districts won't be getting much (if anything) from the state . And some districts (Marin ) are starting to impose much more stringent controls on usage. And there hasn't been rain in three weeks (and none is on the horizon )...
• Certain California politicians are claiming Prop. 47 is behind the mob shoplifting . Those claims are pretty hollow. That said, the law enforcement and prosecutorial teams in SF and elsewhere need to step up their game .
• Methinks Oroville has more to worry about (like fluctuating between droughts, elevated fire risk, and potentially catastrophic floods) than covid mandates .
• The massive concentration of wealth in the Bay Area is helping raise house prices throughout the state as Bay Area residents buy up vacation homes elsewhere .
• On the origin of bay windows .
• Why there are so many crows in the Bay Area right now.
• On both sides of the political aisle, California residents are getting fed up with homeless encampments and the failure of throwing money at the problem . Maybe more affordable housing and housing- and health-care centric approaches should be prioritized?

Everything Else:

• Fascinating findings. Corporate executives are much more likely than the general public to think that their companies should take stands on societal issues; if they speak up, though, the public's perspective is "put your money where your mouth is."
• More and more Americans are choosing to not have children, for a variety of reasons . Unfortunately, if the Supreme Court rules the way many think it will and reverses Roe v. Wade , millions of American women won't really have a choice in the matter. (As an aside, it almost makes me ill to see well-educated individuals dedicating themselves to making the world a worse place . Seriously .)
• The latest mass shooting in America, this time in Michigan, features harrowing videos uploaded to TikTok . Each of these students shows more courage than the radical minority in Congress that are ensuring that the U.S. does not have a meaningful way to prevent the widespread distribution of firearms and the several hundred mass shootings that occur each year as a result.
• It's not surprising, but the political views supported by the majority of the U.S. Republican Party are generally out-of-line with the political views of almost all Western political parties (except for the European far-right heirs of fascism) . Speaking of, we continue to learn more about how close the Jan. 6th coup attempt came to succeeding .
• After the Rittenhouse trial, the great QAnon civil war commenced .
• Regardless of recent findings regarding the Steele Dossier, there is a mountain of evidence relating to Russia's influence in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.
• Germany really wants NordStream 2 to work. But doing so risks strengthening Russia's position vis-a-vis the rest of Europe.
• A better way: while the U.S. has a strategic oil reserve, Canada has a strategic maple syrup reserve .
• Awful: while many Americans look forward to their 21st birthdays, many children of immigrants on work visas look towards them with fear and dread .
• The FTC is digging into U.S. retail supply chain disruptions . Good!
• What's a wonderwall, anyway? A few dozen Brits were trapped by a massive snowfall and had to spend three nights in a pub with an Oasis cover band .
• Goodbye Elizabeth II, Hello Rihanna : Barbados removed the British Monarch as head of state in a transition to a full republic, and subsequently declared Rihanna a national hero.
• Yikes: as stars approach black holes, they get shredded .
• A very cool look at some interesting stats relating to the modern economy.