Thursday Picks for NFL Week 4 and CFB Week 5

Week 4 in the NFL and Week 5 in college. Fastest September of all time and here we are at the end of the month. Last week we were

1-2 in College BUT we hit the Dog of the week for 3rd time in 4 weeks for 2.5 units of winning.

That puts us at

7-6 on the year in college

3-1 on Dog of the week.

College Picks

Ohio State -23.5 vs Michigan State

OSU owns Michigan State and has held a lot of their offensive changes for the B1G slate. 77% of the bets and 82% of the Money are on the Spartans which is just too much public group think to ignore.

Georgia Alabama over 48.5

This is an NFL sized total, and with as good as Georgia has been defensively, Alabama’s path to victory is a shootout. They haven’t been a regular season dog in a long time, and the two times they have been, Bama has beaten Georgia. The line has dropped from 54 so it’s a good time to get on board.

Notre Dame -6.5 vs Lousville

A lot of folks selling stock in the Irish, but Louisville is the perfect matchup for Notre Dame. The Irish need to pound the rock and get comfortable with the fact they’re not going to throw all over teams. I like this as a get right spot for Notre Dame.

USC -14.5 vs Wisconsin

Wisconsin is down their QB and USC is coming off a frustrating loss in Ann Arbor. I still believe USC is a top 4 team in the B1G and Wisconsin won’t be able to keep up with the Trojan offense.

NFL

Last weeks NFL props were not the path to generational wealth we went 1-3 but a laddered effort on Derrick Henry running all over the Cowboys saved a bad week.

That experiment was a big DOOM as the Costco Boys would say. Back to picking winners instead this week.

This will be our last vibes only week. Next week we will run the data and forecast our picks to hopefully get on a run with some muscle.

There are some great games this week.

Buffalo at Baltimore

Philly at Tampa

Seattle at Detroit

are my favorite games but I’m gonna focus on some gross games for our picks

Here we go

Season Record 4-4

Minnesota +2.5 at Green Bay, Money line is +120

Green Bay gets the spread as the home team, the Vikings haven’t done anything but dominate this year. Their defense could be the leagues best and they will either be facing a less than 100% Jordan Love or Malik Willis. This will be a slugfest but will come down to Sam Darnold making more throws than whoever starts for Green Bay

Jaguars Texans over 45.5

The Public handle is 51% on the under in this game, the Texans haven’t played in a shootout this year and Trevor Lawrence is coming off a really tough game on Monday night. This is either a shootout or a Houston trouncing of Jacksonville. I like the over and think Lawrence will either light it up or throw a pick 6 to get us over the hump

Eagles over Bucs -1.5

78% of the money is on the Bucs to cover in this game and that’s enough for another hope I’m wrong pick of the Eagles this week. Philly hasn’t looked themselves on offense, but their defense came to play against a good Saints team last week. The Bucs are coming off a bad loss to Denver and Philly runs the ball well, this could be a good Saquon Barkley 2 TD bet too for the juice hunters.

Falcons -1.5 over Saints

84% of the bets and 73% of the Money is on the Saints. This line opened at 3.5 and is down to 1.5. I don’t have a take on this game but division games are always close and I like the Falcons quite a bit.

TNF Picks

Alright I should have a feel on this game but I really don’t. The Cowboys own the Giants. The Cowboys haven’t loss to the Giants with Dak under center since his Rookie Year. The Giants beat the Browns, the Cowboys killed the Browns. The Giants run the ball decently, the Cowboys haven’t tackled a running back on their first try since last Christmas.

When I’m confident in the Cowboys they let me down, when I doubt them they let me down less frequently. I think for that reason the Cowboys will win and cover tonight against the Giants.

The reason is there’s one player I’m confident in, and that’s Dak Prescott. It may not always be pretty, but he always shows up prepared and ready for a fight.

https://x.com/ShayneTrail/status/1839331218456019328

That being said I do think there is some money to be made against the Cowboys defense.

My 3 Giants props.

Daniel Jones over 40 yards rushing

Devin Singletary ATTD

Malik Nabers o 75 yards

The Cowboys are vulnerable against the runs and have struggled against mobile QB’s. Daniel Jones has tried to run against Dallas and had success, but also has gotten hurt against Dallas doing that. This game will be close if the Giants commit to the run and get Jones involved early in that effort. Singletary will score in the 1st half, but I think Dallas gets enough stops early to give the offense the cushion they’ve needed the last two weeks. Nabers is just a stud and the Giants will get him lined up against Caelon Carson who has been what you would expect a 5th round rookie corner to be. He missed a tackle that led to a huge gain in the only real play that he impacted next week. Nabers is really good and the Cowboys won’t be able to keep Diggs on him all night.

Cowboys picks, the “If everything goes according to plan Parlay”

DAL ML

CeeDee Lamb o81.5 yards receiving

Jake Ferguson o4.5 receptions

CeeDee Lamb ATTD

Daniel Jones o40 yards rushing.

+2200.

I am also laddering Dak TDs.

Over 1.5 -125

Over 2.5 +270

Over 3.5 +1100

He owns the Giants, the starting 2 slot corners are out and the two starters on the outside are not good players, Banks could be but he is not on CeeDee’s level. The Cowboys will try to run and if they can get the Play action going Dak will have a day.

One more parlay if you’ve made it this far

Dak 250+ passing yards

DJ 175+ passing yards

CeeDee 50+ Rec yards

Nabers 5+ catches

Ferguson 3+ receptions

CeeDee 20+ yd reception

Nabers 20+ yard reception

Dowdle 25+ yards rushing

Singletary 50+ rushing yards

Jones 25+ rushing yards

+1812 boosted on FD to +2718

If the Cowboys lose it’s gonna get dark in Dallas.

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