Through the Looking Glass
Joe Epstein
Head of Marketing | 15+ years marketing Media, Entertainment, Gaming, Culture | Digital Strategy | Brand Positioning | Insights + Data | Consumer Storytelling | ex TikTok, Apple, Warner Bros, Fox, Sony | MBA
Funny thing about disruption and innovation - sometimes it happens slowly. And then it happens all at once.?In the past 36 hours (roughly):?
??YouTube, which already total dominates viewership with 11.1% of all content viewership (via Nielsen’ The Gauge), says that the majority of viewership is on the TV screen rather than mobile devices. It’s no wonder, considering that 73% of the content folks watch is longer than 30-minutes, up from 65% YoY, per researcher Digital I.
?? Today’s Hollywood Reporter smartly identified the rapidly declined event programming that remains broadcast-only. Again, no surprise - sports, awards ceremonies, political debates are increasingly being simulcast on broadcast AND streaming (even Fox had its Super Bowl simulcast on FAST upstart Tubi). While 14 of the top 50 TV broadcasts in 2024 were exclusive to pay TV bundle services, THR anticipates this number shrinks to zero in 2025.
These data points are just the top of the pile. Netflix is going after YT’s podcast video biz, the NBA is coming to streaming, and the list goes on.
When we widen our aperture, we see the right-sizing of investment in traditional linear programming, particularly within cable.? Per Luminate’s year end review, there were 104 fewer shows launching on cable in 2024 (-15% YoY) even as traditional broadcast upped its output by 36 shows. Between 2018 and 2024, cable lost 423 shows, down 43%. ?
Execs are all saying the right things about keeping the cable bundle afloat. Fox’s Lachlan Murdoch: “We see the traditional cable bundle as still the most value for our consumers and the most value for our company. So we’re huge supporters of the traditional cable bundle, and we will always be.” Sure. Looking at those deteriorating spending figures, it’s hard to really believe him. More importantly, the creative licensing and packaging of breaking free of the bundle is a very tempting way to add incremental value (and drive incremental rewards).??
“Fox, for example, could cut a deal with Disney to include its sports in the upcoming ESPN streaming service, or as Rich Greenfield at LightShed Partners suggests, it could cut a deal with Paramount to make Paramount+ the ultimate home for Sunday afternoon football. ‘What better way to reinvent Paramount+ than to substantially expand its sports content?’ Greenfield wrote Feb. 7. ‘With $7.99 and $12.99 tiers with/without ads, adding on Fox content at an incremental $10 in a bundle or as part of a premium tier feels far more reasonable.’”?
This I can absolutely see happening - its when incremental disruption happens all at once.
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As always, stay tuned.
Links
THR: "The End of TV is Here"
Luminate: "2024 Year End Report"
Head of Marketing | 15+ years marketing Media, Entertainment, Gaming, Culture | Digital Strategy | Brand Positioning | Insights + Data | Consumer Storytelling | ex TikTok, Apple, Warner Bros, Fox, Sony | MBA
2 周Variety: "Inside TV's Hospice" https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/cable-tv-future-nbcuniversal-msnbc-syfy-e-usa-spinco-1236302864/
Marketing & strategy consultant to interesting and creative companies; Ex: Warner Bros., Comcast, Electronic Arts, Mattel
2 周As someone who formerly worked in the Comcast world a few years ago, there was a strong desire to keep the cable side of the business going for as long as it could. The profitability was disproportionate and made the revenue from YouTube look like a folly. But consumer preferences can never be ignored -- no matter how large the media entity.