Through a Glass, Darkly: Part One
Jim Crompton
Professor of Practice, Petroleum Engineering Department at Colorado School of Mines
These are tough times for the oil and gas industry. Hell, they are difficult times for just about everyone. And yet I had to put together the last semester lecture for my petroleum data analytics class (online no less) and the obvious topic (and question on the minds of all the graduating seniors) was what is the future of the oilfield? In my specific case, the digital oilfield.
Predicting the future is never easy and as Yogi Berra is reported to have said: “It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future.” Although that same saying is also attributed to Niels Bohr, Samuel Goldwyn, K. K. Steincke, Robert Storm Petersen, Mark Twain, Nostradamus and Anonymous.
For now, there are more questions than answers to that topic. Usually we need a good historical data set to build a model to predict the future. Yes, we have seem commodity price downturns but, I don’t think we have seen a circumstance like this before. It is like we are trying to see through a glass, darkly. That phrase is adopted from a passage from the Christian Bible: “we see through a glass, darkly, but then face to face: now I know in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.” (1 Corinthians 13:12)
I think I can safely predict the following future trends.
· Bigger Larger Faster Data (Big Data means more volume,new infrastructure, more variety of data and faster velocity (data in motion), distributed computing and Industrial Internet of things. Large datasets mean new tools. We are on the cusp of the real-time data revolution.)
· Predictive Analytics (The vast majority of time of today’s analyst is on understanding data collected in the past (what went on and why). Those days are coming to an end. The data and tools now available are allowing analysts to go beyond (to what will happen and how can I optimize.)
· Automation of Tasks (Replicable data preparation flows/recipes that can be applied and customized easily and quickly to new sources of data. Models scheduled to re-run regularly (robotic process control) and maybe a transition from automated to automonous.)
· Collaborative but Distributed Teams (As organizations mature, they are finding that the best practice is to embed analytics team members within individual business units and move away from centralized analytics teams maybe even trends towards more work at home anywhere in the world.)
We have all read about ‘Industry 4.0’ from its European manufacturing roots but what about ‘Production 4.0’? This concept leverages the next industrial superpower—big data—to empower an organization with operations-level decision making with minimal human involvement. Building Production 4.0 requires four elements, including the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, edge computing, and advanced data analytics. I thought I was getting ahead of the pack with my digital oilfield 2.0 but the trends are not stopping there.
IIoT (or Industrial Internet of Things) comprises digitally connected physical devices that add systematic support and efficiencies through empirical data and remote controls. Cloud computing allows these devices to network through Internet-hosted servers that store and manage data while reducing infrastructure and complexity. Edge computing connects intelligent devices to current and historical data so that autonomous decisions can be made where they matter most—at the wellsite. Advanced analytics brings the concepts of IoT, cloud computing, and edge computing together to create an interconnected, intelligent ecosystem that helps oilfield equipment to act as intelligent machines that learn and teach themselves.” (Production 4.0 Brings Autonomous Management to the Well, JPT Manoj Nimbalkar, Vice President, Production Automation and Software, Weatherford International | 01 November 2019)
In addition to the biblical quote I found another reference to my obscure metaphor for this article. Through a Glass Darkly is a 1961 Swedish drama film written and directed by Ingmar Bergman, and starring Harriet Andersson, Gunnar Bj?rnstrand, Max von Sydow and Lars Passg?rd. The film tells the story of a schizophrenic young woman (Andersson) vacationing with her family on a remote island, during which time her author father attempts to use her illness in his work, her brother experiences sexual frustration, and she experiences delusions about meeting God, who appears to her in the form of a monstrous spider. I hope our industry’s future has nothing to do with spiders.
Many predict this downturn is a unique dislocation that will fundamentally change the global economy and society (have you heard of the predictions of the 90% economy or the two-meter economy with more social distancing?). Others will see (or hope for) a quick return to the previous norms (how about US$100 oil again).
I am sure that there are many other opinions out there that may be very different from mine. I am in the camp of the lower-for-ever price world where operators have to live with crude oil prices under US$45/bo and natural gas prices under US$2.50/mcf with rapid change in technology and more difficult regulations to live under and a requirement to get a lot greener in our field operations.
I do not pretend to know the future. This is just my best guess. Do you see monstrous spiders, blue skies, natural gas as the transition energy source, more digital, more of the good old days and higher oil prices? I welcome others to comment with views that maybe a lot rosier than mine or even more gloomy. If you have a view of the industry’s future and can see through today’s dark mirror, please share, we will all be wrong in the end but some maybe very interesting.
Jim I was holding back in a response- I was hoping someone else would do a much better job at answering your question about the future of the digital oilfield. I don’t claim to have a great record as a futurist: for example, I was expecting the Upstream big crew change to happen much earlier and be more revolutionary in its impact; and I also thought by now we would routinely move technical work to people without relocating staff, rather than still having co-located teams.??On the other hand, I have been around digital oilfield vision, concepts, and implementation for a while and that’s how I’ll credential my response. On the face of it, your list makes sense: ·??????IIoT (which I believe includes your big data and predictive analytics) ·??????Automation of Tasks? ·??????Collaborative but Distributed Teams? My discomfort stems from asking if that list really represents the future- I would have written that same list 5 years ago before the hard lessons of Hurricane Harvey, the global pandemic and global economic recession, and the collapse of oil prices.??And even back then, against the same topics you had listed, we were starting to see different tactics to digital oil fields applied to onshore shale developments as opposed to conventional upstream developments driven by differences in costs, implementation time, risk mitigation and potential competitive advantage concerns.??My guess would is that you were more thinking about digital oil fields for conventional upstream developments. In my thinking, lower for longer may force us into dropping the digital oilfield mindset entirely and think about technologies that can be leveraged across a diverse set of energy types. IIoT?would still be significant- ubiquitous sensors (fixed and from drones, crawlers, and AUVs) and real time data is also relevant for equipment in windfarms, biomass farm surveillance, as well as digital oil fields, given that we understand how to scale the implementation and running costs to different types of developments and understand how to deliver fit for purpose solutions.? Simulation and optimization?– predicting the performance of complex systems and operating them at peak efficiency and minimum environmental impact must be a significant theme for all types of operations Human to robot interactions?– after the pandemic passes, there may be a push to wider use of robots in construction and maintenance activities since they won’t get sick: but understanding the best way to integrate robotic and human activity in a workplace will need to be understood Mobile platforms and distributed work management?– ability to flexibly form distributed teams with seamless data and application access to allow the best resources to work on projects that support maintenance and operations, and longer wavelength project activity Remote infrastructure design, implementation, and maintenance?– if we have learned anything about the digital oilfield in the last 20 years- it’s that the place where we typically have developments are far away from existing production, electricity, and telecommunications.??Those same issues would generally be with us if we were talking about windfarms, carbon sequestration facilities, or large-scale solar arrays.??Perhaps this is another area where we need to understand multiple technologies and their costs and scalability across a variety of energy development scenarios. I think the people who remain in the digital oilfield “game” will need to be far more adaptable to applying tools and approaches across a variety of problems??– which is certainly going to be a more complex road than the one we have been on for the last 20 years.??
EMEA Industry Technical Leader @ Microsoft | Energy and Resources |
4 年I agree with your view on this Jim Crompton, especially on ability to crunch in more variety of data and at faster velocity (data in motion). We at Cognite AS believe this is the foundation of whatever will come next - “Production 4.0” which seems like a good one. :)
Asset Data and Information strategist enabling design-to-disposal lifecycle management implementation, governance, and efficiency
4 年I truly believe there is an opportunity and obligation to ensure quality and governance of foundational asset data and engineering data tied to assets that enable analytics.